The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) shows growth in their manufacturing survey in September 2010 – although the rate of growth is approaching no growth.
The September 2010 Empire State Manufacturing Survey continues to show improving trend lines on new orders and unfilled orders. This is a provisional confirmation of Econintersect’s view of continuing economic growth.
Manufacturing appears stable in July 2010 with the gentle decline of backlog continuing. The seasonal adjustment factors used in this month’s release again appears flawed. I continue to be concerned with backlog. Backlog reduction means you still have some more people to fire, and it raises questions about the economic direction. It is a simple fact that backlog grows in an improving economy.
If the hard data confirms what the ISM manufacturing survey is telling us, there are growing sales headwinds for 3Q2010 GDP.