Beware of Month-over-Month Statistics

Written by Steven Hansen Most readers know I have issues with the US Census headline data.  The data does not add up against itself.  When I was a negotiator, one of the tools used is to run your opponent in a loop – and see if the numbers equal to the numbers they submitted. My …

Durable Goods New Orders Are Less than Good in December 2012

Written by Steven Hansen The Headlines say the durable goods sector improved in December.  This analysis says the opposite as the unadjusted new orders are barely above December 2011 levels. The headlines say backlog improved marginally this month  – but the unadjusted data says backlog improved significantly (mostly caused by defense). Backlog is THE indicator …

Durable Goods New Orders Beat Expectations but Still Not Good In November 2012

Written by Steven Hansen Durable goods sector improved in November – according to headlines.  Even with the improvement, this sector of the economy’s analysis remains in a downtrend. This analysis is worse than the headline data. The headlines say backlog improved marginally this month – but remains in a short term down trend. Backlog is …

Holiday Consumer Activities

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute Earlier we presented a chart that attempted to quantify the impact of Hurricane Sandy and the presidential election on the shopping behavior of American consumers. We did that by comparing this year’s behavior with what we had observed during a comparable time period in 2008. As we have continued …

Durable Goods New Orders Improves In October 2012

Written by Steven Hansen Durable goods sector improved in October – according to Econintersect‘s analysis. Even with the improvement, this sector of the economy’s analysis remains in a downtrend.  This analysis is better than the headline data. Backlog was declined marginally this month – and remains in a short term down trend.  Backlog is THE …