Review of 2011 Predictions

by Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets Since the beginning of the global crisis in 2007-08 I have argued that the crisis was a consequence primarily of global trade imbalances generated by structural features that led to significant saving imbalances in China, the US, and within Europe. I describe this model in more detail in my …

Stratfor: The U.S.-European Relationship, Then and Now

By George Friedman, Founder and Chairman, Stratfor I am writing this from Greece, having spent the past week in Europe and having moved among various capitals. Most discussions I’ve had in my travels concern U.S. President Barack Obama’s failure to move decisively against Syria and how Russian President Vladimir Putin outmatched him. Of course, the …

Stratfor: What to Expect After Germany’s Elections

from Stratfor Much of Europe is eagerly anticipating the results of Germany’s Sept. 22 parliamentary elections, but this anticipation may be somewhat misplaced. Of course, Germany’s importance to Europe is well founded. It is Europe’s largest economy and its main bailout creditor to struggling eurozone countries, so Germany’s economic health is vital to the economic …

Spain – The Recession May Be Ending But The Crisis Continues

Written by Edward Hugh, Euro Watch What follows is an interview I did over the summer with the Madrid based publication The Local. Let’s start with the basics: what are Spain’s current economic problems?

Stratfor: Syria, America and Putin’s Bluff

By George Friedman, Founder and Chairman, Stratfor In recent weeks I’ve written about U.S. President Barack Obama’s bluff on Syria and the tightrope he is now walking on military intervention. There is another bluff going on that has to be understood, this one from Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin is bluffing that Russia has emerged as a major …