Economic Forecast October 2012: Huge Decline, Fundamentals Degrading

Written by Steven Hansen Econintersect‘s October 2012 economic forecast is relatively nasty after September’s upbeat forecast. Let me start by saying one month is not a trend, but the degradation in the indicators Econintersect believes are intuitive were very large – the largest one month drop in our one month index (not the 3 month …

Economic Forecast September 2012: Actually Improving

Written by Steven Hansen The economy is always in a state of flux.  Writing this summary forces a review of the economic dynamics once a month.  This September forecast even surprised me to a degree – as the Econintersect Economic Index (EEI) is now clearly showing an uptrend. Before you break out the champagne, this …

Economic Forecast July 2012: Growth Continues to Hang In

Written by Steven Hansen The Econintersect July 2012 economic index shows underlying economic fundamentals continue to show economic expansion – with the rate of growth improving marginally in this forecast. The news out there is not good – Europe in a death spiral, the BRIC economies slowing rapidly, most surveys at or near recession levels, …

Austerity to Growth – IMF Double-Talk on Greece and Spain

by Elliott Morss Austerity – What Should Have Been Learned The IMF should have known that austerity policies (reduce government deficits) cause unemployment to grow. After all, its own research found that a reduction in the government deficit of 1% in GDP results in an increase of .3 percentage points in the unemployment rate. But …

Economic Forecast Is for Little Change in June 2012

Written by Steven Hansen The Econintersect June 2012 economic index shows underlying economic fundamentals continue to show economic expansion – with the rate of growth slowing marginally in this forecast. At the moment, two of the major leading economic indicators which are touted to have a six month forward vision (ECRI’s WLI and The Conference …