Written by Steven Hansen Retail sales were down according to US Census. Our analysis agreed, and the decline is even worse than the headlines because of the moderate downward revision of last month’s data.
Written by Steven Hansen December 2013 wholesale sales and inventories data was relatively strong. This data series is very noisy, and has been on a roller coaster of one good month / one bad month. Even the unadjusted three month rolling average is stronger than the headline data this month.
The retail sales headline number for December rose 0.2%, beating the market consensus of a flat month. As usual, the featured number was a seasonally adjusted, made up number, also not adjusted for inflation. The mainstream media noted the solid gain, but worried
Written by Steven Hansen The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey strengthened marginally but remains in positive territory. Key element new orders softened but remains expansion territory.
Written by Steven Hansen The Empire State Manufacturing Survey jumped further into expansion territory in January 2014.