The USA could be on track for a second seasonal dip as seen in the last two winters. This winter the dip could go below April 2009 prices and become a true double dip for the cycle. (Econintersect is in this camp). Finally, NAR optimism could be rewarded and there could be a pause in home price decreases.
December 2010 home sales are projected to be 21% below sales one year ago, based on November pending homes sales reported by the NAR.
Housing data continues to confirm that a second dip in residential home prices is underway. The Case-Shiller data through October 2010 confirms the trend.
Econintersect confirms using the unadjusted data – home sales likely increased in the 5% range MoM. Historically, existing home sales fall in November. This year November almost equaled October.
The three month moving average for November pending home sales remains in a cyclical downtrend regardless of the uptick in this month’s pending home sales.