Manufacturing New Orders at Record Level in March 2011

The economic green shoot – manufacturing – has now exceeded the pre-recession levels. New orders in March 2011 are at historical high compared to March in previous years. Growth is positive year-over-year and the rate of increase in growth (acceleration) is positive. Manufacturing is in a robust recovery and will soon be in expansion, even on a real and population adjusted basis, if the trends of the past nine months continue.

Sharp Improvement in Durable Goods Manufacturing in March 2011

Durable Goods (manufactured goods whose usefulness continues for years) new orders sharply improved in March 2011 breaking the “less good” downtrend. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for manufactured durable goods increased $5.0 billion or 2.5 percent in March. The increase from March 2010 was slightly greater than 12%.

New Home Sales Continue to Suck in March 2011

Some headlines today (Monday, April 25) are about a March rebound in new home sales. This was listed as one of the strong data points of the day on CNBC. However, other reports of the latest data are much more sanguine. See for example the article in the Washington Post.

From the Econintersect point of view, March 2011 is just one more bad month of new home sales. This is the lowest number of March sales in history (since this series records began in 1963):

Manufacturing Continues Solid Growth in February 2011

Seasonal adjustment factors are mindless quantitative exercise especially misleading during economic recoveries (or expansions).  When you have a strong pulse one month, and the next month is not quite as good – the seasonal adjustment factors look weak. This is the situation as the US Census reported that manufacturing new orders for manufactured goods in …