China, India: A Hard Landing Is Very Unlikely

I continue to be a skeptic of the pundits rhetoric that a European recession could lead to a true contraction of the economies of China and India. This is unlikely, and bordering on impossible. China has a “command” (top down) directed economy, and has been driven by major infrastructure investment, and export / domestic driven …

2012 Predictions: Just a Dice Roll

Looking back at Econintersect’s 2011 predictions, I was rather pleased with their accuracy.  Predictions are not to be taken that seriously as they are an extrapolation of today’s knowledge – and introduce significant opinion to reach a particular conclusion. The upcoming 2012 has unusually high uncertainty in play – and this uncertainty boils down to …

USA: Headwinds for 2012 and Beyond

A rather frightening and somber forecast for the USA in the years to come was published by Econintersect this past week – USA in 2012/2016: An Insolvent and Ungovernable Country. In a nutshell, the European think tank LEAP/Europe 2020 sees: US institutional deadlock and the break-up of the traditional two-party system The unstoppable spiral of …

Arguing For the Coming Recession

No data in the grouping of economic indicators which historically lead the economy (and which Econintersect follows) is predicting an economic downturn. I considered listing the folks who think a recession is coming (including ECRI and John Hussman) with those that do not – but realized that a recession call when no major economic indicator …

Fixing the Eurozone – Old Fashioned Inflation and Deflation

For the past two weeks, my weekend summaries have focused on Europe.  The reason is simple – events in Europe are and will continue to affect the global business, financial and economic systems. Most economic theory subscribes to the notion that monetary (currency) and fiscal (government) operations must work together – and in Europe, they …