Case-Shiller data for May 2011 released today continues to show less good (vs. the past) seasonal improvement for the normal spring / summer buying season.
The upward bounce we are seeing is the annual seasonal bounce we see every year – and this effect has been forecast. The difference is the bounce is coming from a lower starting point in double dip territory. With weak sales figures so far this season, it does not look like a recovery is yet on the horizon.
Home prices are increasing, but all home price indices released through the end of May 2011 show this increase is coming from a lower level than a year ago. Case-Shiller home price index entered double dip territory with its March 2011 index surpassing the recession low point set in April 2009 , all other major home price indices are already in double dip territory.
The spring thaw is upon us! A seasonal uptick in both median prices and inventory has appeared in most metropolitan areas across the country. Price increases are apparent in 24 of the 26 tracked markets, and inventory increases are apparent in 23 of the 26 tracked markets.
Despite this month’s headlines reporting Q1’s home price lows, the Altos Research real-time data shows near-term price strength.
CoreLogic confirms that all indices are showing the same downward trend. The normal spring upsurge is underway – and indications are that this will stop the downward momentum, just as it did 12 months ago. The question is what will happen later this year when the spring surge ends.