Econintersect warned in its April 2011 economic forecast that the economy was at a cycle peak. April 2011 advance durable goods new orders were weak, but what should catch your eye is the break in the trend line of order backlog (unfilled orders). Caution: One month is not a trend and we have to see May …
Durable Goods (manufactured goods whose usefulness continues for years) new orders sharply improved in March 2011 breaking the “less good” downtrend. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for manufactured durable goods increased $5.0 billion or 2.5 percent in March. The increase from March 2010 was slightly greater than 12%.
The automotive sector has been a stalwart of the U.S. economy for the last nine months – except for the past few weeks.
According to US Census, durable goods new orders are down in February 2011. Econintersect’s analysis is that durable goods are less good – but still up YoY.
Consumer durable purchases monitored by CMI (Consumer Metrics Institute) have been in decline since late January. The effect of Japan is probably temporary.