The month over month change is up but the three-month moving average is down. There is no real improvement evident. The index has been indicating below normal grwoth for the past five months.
The CFNAI is slightly changed for September, just above a level that would indicate the start of recession would be possible.
What a difference on month makes. Flying on the heels of significant backward revision, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and its three month moving average fell to -0.53 and -0.42 respectively in August 2010. For a quick review of last months index see Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) Rising or Falling? A …
The July reading of the 3-month moving average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) has dropped back below zero the past two months after reaching above zero for the first time since the recession began for just one month in May. It is currently above levels that would be associated with recession, but it is close enough to bear close watching.