Advanced durable goods data for January 2011 indicates a slight improvement over December. The fly in the ointment is continuing fluctuation of the transport sector of durable goods.
Durable goods improvement YoY continues in a declining improvement channel as the data is compared to stronger durable goods sales in the first half of 2010.
New Orders. New orders for manufactured durable goods in January increased $5.3 billion or 2.7 percent to $200.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase followed three consecutive monthly decreases including a 0.4 percent December decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 3.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.9 percent. Transportation equipment, also up following three consecutive monthly decreases, had the largest increase, $10.9 billion or 27.6 percent to $50.5 billion. This was led by nondefense aircraft and parts, which increased $7.3 billion.
Shipments. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in January, up four of the last five months, increased $0.6 billion or 0.3 percent to $202.9 billion. This followed a 2.3 percent December increase. Primary metals, up six consecutive months, had the largest increase, $0.9 billion or 4.0 percent to $23.0 billion.
Unfilled Orders. Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in January, up nine of the last ten months, increased $4.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $829.4 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent December decrease. Transportation equipment, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, had the largest increase, $2.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $475.7 billion.
Inventories. Inventories of manufactured durable goods in January, up thirteen consecutive months, increased $2.2 billion or 0.7 percent to $324.8 billion. This followed a 0.8 percent December increase. Transportation equipment, also up
thirteen consecutive months, had the largest increase, $0.6 billion or 0.7 percent to $86.9 billion.
The above clearly shows the improvement in durable goods. Econintersect believes that YoY comparisons used by the US Census in its seasonal adjustment methodology – does not take into effect New Normal realities.
But the durable goods data this month is tainted by the noisy transport sector.
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