Warning: Use information gained in surveys at your own risk. They are opinion, and surveys ALWAYS miss turning points. This is bar room talk.
But the September 2010 Empire State Manufacturing Survey continues to show improving trend lines on new orders and unfilled orders. This is a provisional confirmation of Econintersect’s view of continuing economic growth.
I look at but ignore the rest of the survey to concentrate on economic growth elements. Some elements (such as employment) are continuously wrong anyway.
Here are the NY Fed’s headline words:
The general business conditions index remained positive, although it slipped 3 points to 4.1. The new orders and shipments indexes were both up moderately for the month, at levels signaling stable activity. The prices paid index was positive and little changed from last month, while the prices received index edged up to just above zero. Employment indexes were positive, suggesting that employment levels and the average workweek continued to expand over the month. The degree of optimism about the six-month outlook continued to deteriorate, with the future general business conditions index hitting its lowest level since early 2009.
Looking at the unadjusted data, there are improving trend lines in new orders and unfilled orders. Hard data has shown unfilled orders are still falling but I use the trend lines to extrapolate that the rate of decline is getting better.
I do not use surveys to establish trends, but if we are lucky the lull we saw in the economy in the back half of 2Q2010 is behind us and the economy is starting to build strength.