Weekly Economic Scorecard 04 February 2011

The table below itemizes the major events and analysis this week.  The full review article is available here.

Weekly Economic Release Scorecard:

Item Headline Analysis
January BLS Jobs Report Unemployment down to 9.0% Data well under expectation, and relatively weak throughout
4Q2010 Productivity Up 2.6% Outsourcing is masquerading as productivity improvement
January ISM Non-Manufacturing
Up 1.7 percentage Point Matches other data
December Manufacturing Up 0.2% Likely Up 1.1% – very strong
Wallison vs Black Debating the merits of one of the minority reports of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission
Population & Economic Indicators The graphic differences when data is analyzed per capita
January ADP Employment Up 187,000 Large growth in small and medium size business
January ISM Manufacturing Highest Level since May 2004 Index is only 50% accurate at turning points
December Construction Spending Down 1.3% Construction spending still has not bottomed.
February Economic Forecast Slightly positive growth – worries about economic effects of Middle East unrest
4Q2010 Personal Income & PCE Income up 0.4% / PCE up 0.7% Per capita compensation is falling indicating growth is from the richer population segment.
Economy Is Now In Expansion When GDP moves to historic highs – recovery is finished and expansion begins – but looking per capita, economy is still in recovery.
Normalized GDP Redefining definition of economic cycles using a per capita approach
4Q2010 GDP Arguing economy is contracting from a consumer metrics view.
Opinion: Sovereign Debt Yields too Low Bill Gross argues bondholders should be buying quality emerging market debt.
Opinion: China’s Non-performing Loans The last banking crisis caused a contraction in consumption.
Opinion: Investigating the Financial Crisis William Black argues that the Republican members of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission were architects of the crisis.
Opinion: FDIC was setup to Fail Yves Smith argues the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission started with conclusions and did not investigate.
Opinion: What is Currency Derryl argues currency can not be a both an efficient medium of exchange and a storehouse of value.