The table below itemizes the major events and analysis this week. The full review article is available here.
Weekly Economic Release Scorecard:
Item | Headline | Analysis |
January BLS Jobs Report | Unemployment down to 9.0% | Data well under expectation, and relatively weak throughout |
4Q2010 Productivity | Up 2.6% | Outsourcing is masquerading as productivity improvement |
January ISM Non-Manufacturing |
Up 1.7 percentage Point | Matches other data |
December Manufacturing | Up 0.2% | Likely Up 1.1% – very strong |
Wallison vs Black | Debating the merits of one of the minority reports of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission | |
Population & Economic Indicators | The graphic differences when data is analyzed per capita | |
January ADP Employment | Up 187,000 | Large growth in small and medium size business |
January ISM Manufacturing | Highest Level since May 2004 | Index is only 50% accurate at turning points |
December Construction Spending | Down 1.3% | Construction spending still has not bottomed. |
February Economic Forecast | Slightly positive growth – worries about economic effects of Middle East unrest | |
4Q2010 Personal Income & PCE | Income up 0.4% / PCE up 0.7% | Per capita compensation is falling indicating growth is from the richer population segment. |
Economy Is Now In Expansion | When GDP moves to historic highs – recovery is finished and expansion begins – but looking per capita, economy is still in recovery. | |
Normalized GDP | Redefining definition of economic cycles using a per capita approach | |
4Q2010 GDP | Arguing economy is contracting from a consumer metrics view. | |
Opinion: Sovereign Debt Yields too Low | Bill Gross argues bondholders should be buying quality emerging market debt. | |
Opinion: China’s Non-performing Loans | The last banking crisis caused a contraction in consumption. | |
Opinion: Investigating the Financial Crisis | William Black argues that the Republican members of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission were architects of the crisis. | |
Opinion: FDIC was setup to Fail | Yves Smith argues the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission started with conclusions and did not investigate. | |
Opinion: What is Currency | Derryl argues currency can not be a both an efficient medium of exchange and a storehouse of value. |