The table below itemizes the major events and analysis this week. The full review article is avaiulable here.
Weekly Economic Release Scorecard:
Item | Headline | Analysis |
4Q2010 USA GDP | Up 3.2% | Likely this number is low as this is an advance estimate with the second half of 4Q being particularly strong. |
December Pending Home Sales |
Up 2% | Based on pending home sales, January home sales will be the same as the last two years |
December Chicago Fed National Activity Index | increased to +0.03 from –0.40 | This is a volatile index and can only use the 3 month rolling average which increased to –0.22 from –0.36 |
December Durable Goods | New orders down 2.5% | New orders are flat, but with YoY data trending down – it points to a flat economy also. |
January FOMC Meeting | Only thing new is no dissent as Thomas M. Hoenig, the Kansas City Fed Chief, was rotated out. | |
December New Home Sales | Up 17.5% | Maybe 10% up – but 10% above terrible is terrible. |
November Case-Shiller | Down Slightly | November data consistent with National Association of Realtors, CoreLogic, and Altos Research. |
January Conference Board Consumer Confidence | Up Significantly | Stepping back, consumer confidence is still terrible |
India Inflation Crisis | Talking through Indian events | |
Global Food Crisis | The global economy is back to pre-recession situation of food prices rising faster then the poor nations can afford. | |
China Savings Rate | Rising Chinese consumer uncertainty is causing higher saving rate. | |
India Food Prices | Rising food prices may impact economic growth | |
Opinion: Low Interest Rates | Low interest rates end up as a subsidy to banks | |
Opinion: FINRA vs. FPA | Penalties are important in regulation of investment advisors. | |
Opinion: Dodd-Frank Act | Implementing this law is becoming a problem |