Weekly Economic Scorecard 28 January 2011

The table below itemizes the major events and analysis this week.  The full review article is avaiulable here.

Weekly Economic Release Scorecard:

Item Headline Analysis
4Q2010 USA GDP Up 3.2% Likely this number is low as this is an advance estimate with the second half of 4Q being particularly strong.
December Pending Home Sales
Up 2% Based on pending home sales, January home sales will be the same as the last two years
December Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased to +0.03  from –0.40 This is a volatile index and can only use the 3 month rolling average which increased to –0.22 from –0.36
December Durable Goods New orders down 2.5% New orders are flat, but with YoY data trending down – it points to a flat economy also.
January FOMC Meeting   Only thing new is no dissent as Thomas M. Hoenig, the Kansas City Fed Chief, was rotated out.
December New Home Sales Up 17.5% Maybe 10% up – but 10% above terrible is terrible.
November Case-Shiller Down Slightly November data consistent with National Association of Realtors, CoreLogic, and Altos Research.
January Conference Board Consumer Confidence Up Significantly Stepping back, consumer confidence is still terrible
India Inflation Crisis   Talking through Indian events
Global Food Crisis   The global economy is back to pre-recession situation of food prices rising faster then the poor nations can afford.
China Savings Rate   Rising Chinese consumer uncertainty is causing higher saving rate.
India Food Prices   Rising food prices may impact economic growth
Opinion: Low Interest Rates   Low interest rates end up as a subsidy to banks
Opinion: FINRA vs. FPA   Penalties are important in regulation of investment advisors.
Opinion: Dodd-Frank Act   Implementing this law is becoming a problem