Econintersect’s Analysis Summary for w/e 14 January 2011

This week, the economic summary article was published in the Opinion Blog, and is titled It Takes Money to Make Money.

Weekly Economic Release Scorecard:

Item Headline Analysis
CPI Up 0.5% Energy price surge a concern to Econintersect for 2011 economic expansion
Retail  Sales Up 0.8% This is a gross understatement.  This is record sales up 8% YoY.
Industrial Production Up 0.8% Agree that Industrial Production increased
Manufacturing & Trade Sales Up 1.2% This is November Data – but the increase is confirmed by the unadjusted data
PPI Up 1.1% MoM Energy surged 7.7%.  Likely to show up in CPI in the following months
Trade Balance Shrunk $100 million Historically high exports but surplus likely grew $3.5 billion
Consumer Metrics Index Consumer Contraction is now 270 days old
Diesel Consumption Up 2.4% Diesel use at December historical highs
Rail Traffic Up 7.3% Positive trend lines going into 2011
Small Business Sentiment Down 0.6% Both consumer sentiment and small business are in the same relative negative positions
Wholesale Sales Up 1.9% November sales are at historical highs for November
Blueprint for Disinflation Avoid owning fixed assets
Bond Vigilantes Historically major bond holders dump at first sign of inflation
Inflation Chupacabra Chupacabra is not coming to eat our goats
Opinion: Headwinds for 2011 There is far more risk then realized
Opinion: Currency, Newton and the Gardener
The underlying economic driver is jobs.
Opinion: Yellen Says QE Saved the Economy This entire economic policy morass is encumbered with lack of experimental control.