Econintersect’s Analysis Summary for w/e 07 January 2011

This week, the economic summary article was published in the Opinion Blog, and is titled Victims and Winners of Economic Cycles.

Weekly Economic Release Scorecard:

Item Headline Analysis
BLS Jobs Report Employment up 103,000 Very mixed employment picture.
Consumer Credit Down Down for the year to date
Same Chain Store Sales Up 2.8% Many numbers flying about – wait until US Census release
December 2010 Home Prices Down 1.63% Double dip firmly underway
ISM Non-manufacturing survey Up 2.1% Survey so quixotic this month it is meaningless
ADP Employment Numbers Up 297,000 Historically large monthly increase
FOMC Meeting Minutes   Insights into why treasury yields rising
Manufacturing New Orders Up 0.7% Flat
Estonia’s Euro Adoption   What will happen to unemployment?
Bank of America Fraud Settlement   The $2.8 billion dollar settlement with Fannie & Freddie is the tip of the iceberg
Construction Spending Up 0.4% Down 6% YoY and is still bad
ISM Manufacturing Up 0.4% It is getting hard to analyze these surveys
Are Home Prices going up or down – Part 1   Step-by-Step rebuttal of Reynolds and Perry
Are Home Prices going up or down – Part 2   No evidence to support home prices will go up
Investors   Study of cognitive errors
Opinion: Home Prices   Home prices will fall further
Opinion: Economics Reporting   Return to old fashioned fundamentals
Opinion: China   Coal crisis could turn into Black Swan
Opinion: Causes of Great Recession   Causes of Great Recession and Slow Recovery are institutional problems