Durable Goods Orders Flat for Past Two Years

by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner

December Durable Goods Were Weak

The headline number for seasonally adjusted, nominal durable goods orders fell 4.3% in December. That was worse than the lowest guess of economists in a survey conducted by Bloomberg.

Real Durable Goods Orders- Click to enlarge
Real Durable Goods OrdersClick to enlarge

Actual, Real Durable Goods Orders Were At Same Level as December 2012 and 2011

In real terms, adjusted for inflation, and not seasonally adjusted, the actual unit volume of orders has been unchanged for two years. There is no growth. The manufacturing “recovery” ended in December 2011. In fact, this year shows a 0.8% year to year decline. Durable goods orders unit volume remains 14% below the December 2007 level.

On a month to month basis, December is always an up month. This year was no exception, but the 6.2% gain from November is barely more than half of the usual 11.7% increase. It was way below the December 2012 jump of 16.3%.

Durable Goods Stagnate as Fed Prints and Stocks Soar

The Fed went on a money printing binge with QE3-4 taking effect in November 2012. From then until lately, stocks soared. But durable goods orders have stalled. The Fed driven stock market bubble is a fact. The manufacturing recovery is a myth.

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