One reply on “June 2013 Trade Data Analysis Is Mixed”

  1. as usual you remain must read in the totality of online “truth speak.”  this is a huge story…this is the only analysis of this huge story…if the USA is fast becoming a net exporter of oil this has profound implications for global capital flows and the market.  obviously…and i agree with you “no good deed goes unpunished.”  as the trade gap narrows (on it’s way to becoming a surplus soon?) it simply doesn’t surprise me that the dollar sells off, equities get wobbly and commodity markets continue to get roiled.  dollar shortages are now being created not only globally but locally (meaning Wall Street) as well.  in other words “pricing power” becomes much hard to ascertain in a world without “petrodollars.”  this makes pricing debt…in my view…VERY challenging since you can’t just find “another China” and go from there.  moreover the ability to get these debt offerings to begin with can be a challenge as the need for “outside financing” simply disappears. if the Fed really does start tapering here (which i think is a HUGE mistake) i would not be surprised to see a sudden DOWN draft  in prices in the USA.  we already know for a fact that North Dakota is pumping out light sweet for sixty bucks a barrel.  THAT is the price of oil..not what is listed in the market price.  my understanding is that the companies have gotten VERY good at hydraulic fracturing now as well…which says to me that price can fall further and they can still produce.  given the over all demand for oil and distillates has fallen dramatically these past few years as the two largest consumers (the USA and Europe) are basically “off line” consumption wise for the forseeable future (in the case of the USA “forever” comes to mind given Tesla) and i can very easily see a dramatic plunge in prices this fall at the retail level.  we’ll see…we haven’t had an outright deflation in the USA in 80 years!  clearly there is a massive one going in Europe right now…which will have implications (negative in my view) in how this issue is “handled.”  in other words “prepare for the competitive devaluations.”

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