Written by Steven Hansen
The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey moved higher in positive territory. This survey has been negative for 9 of the last 15 months. Key element new orders continued in expansion territory – but was not as strongly in expansion as last month.
This is a very noisy index which readers should be reminded is sentiment based. The Philly Fed historically is one of the more negative of all the Fed manufacturing surveys.
The market was expecting the index value of 3.0 to 5.3 (actual was 19.8). Positive numbers indicate market expansion, negative numbers indicate contraction.
Manufacturing firms responding to the July Business Outlook Survey indicated that regional manufacturing conditions improved this month. All of the survey’s broadest current indicators were positive, and most showed improvement from last month. The survey’s indicators of future activity also showed a notable rise, suggesting that firms expect a pickup in business over the next six months.
Indicators Suggest Pickup in Activity
The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from 12.5 in June to 19.8, its highest reading since March 2011 (see Chart). The percentage of firms reporting increased activity this month (37 percent) was greater than the percentage reporting decreased activity (17 percent).
Other current indicators suggest continued growth this month. The shipments index increased notably, from 4.1 in June to 14.3. The demand for manufactured goods as measured by the current new orders index remained positive, although it fell back 6 points to 10.2. Firms reported a drawdown of inventories this month: The inventory index fell 15 points, from -6.6 to -21.6.
Labor market conditions showed a notable improvement this month. The current employment index, at 7.7, registered its first positive reading in four months. The percentage of firms reporting increases in employment (18 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting decreases (10 percent). Firms also indicated an increase in the average workweek compared with June.
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Econintersect believes the important elements of this survey are new orders and unfilled orders . Unfilled orders are “more good” but in contraction, with New Orders are “less good” but in expansion.
This index has many false recession warnings. However, holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Philly Fed Survey (yellow bar).
Comparing Surveys to Hard Data
In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.
Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:
Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report)
Caveats on the use of Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey:
This is a survey, a quantification of opinion – not facts and data. Surveys lead hard data by weeks to months, and can provide early insight into changing conditions. Econintersect finds they do not necessarily end up being consistent compared to hard economic data that comes later, and can miss economic turning points.
This survey is very noisy – and recently showed recessionary conditions. And it is understood from 3Q2011 GDP that the economy was expanding even though this index was in contraction territory. On the positive side, it hit the start and finish of the 2007 recession exactly.
No survey is accurate in projecting employment – and the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey is no exception. Although there are some general correlation in trends, month-to-month movements have not correlated with the BLS Service Sector Employment data.
Over time, there is a general correlation with real business data – but month-to-month conflicts are frequent.
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