Empire State Survey Bounces Back in May 2012

Written by Steven Hansen

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey (manufacturing in New York State) in May 2012 continued on its sixth month of expansion. Manufacturing expansion is indicated by positive numbers to this index:

  • This noisy index fell from 20.2 to 6.6 in April – and now bounced back to 17.1 in May.
  • Expectation was for a readings of 8.0 to 8.4

As this index is very noisy, it is hard to understand what these massive moves up or down mean.

Econintersect reminds you that this is a survey (a quantification of opinion). Please see caveats at the end of this post. However, sometimes it is better not to look to deeply into the details of a noisy survey as just the overview is all you need to know.

From the report:

The May Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity expanded in New York State at a moderate pace. The general business conditions index rose eleven points to 17.1. The new orders index inched up to 8.3, and the shipments index shot up eighteen points to 24.1. The indexes for both prices paid and prices received were positive but lower in May, indicating that the pace of price increases slowed.  Employment index readings remained relatively healthy, suggesting that employment levels and hours worked continued to expand. Future indexes were noticeably lower than last month, indicating a positive but somewhat less optimistic view of the six-month outlook.

The above graphic clearly shows that when the index is in negative territory that is not a signal of a recession: of 5 times in negative territory only one occurred with a recession. Conversely, a positive number is likely to be indicating economic expansion. However, when it does make a correct negative prediction it can be timely. This index was only two months late in going negative after what was eventually determined to be the start of the 2007 recession.

There is a high probability that the economy is expanding based on this index.

This survey has a lot extra bells and whistles which take attention away from the core questions: (1) are orders and (2) are unfilled orders (backlog) improving? Econintersect emphasizes these two survey points.

Respondents do not believe the level of unfilled orders (backlog) is increasing; it has been negative all 2011 (and now into 2012). Unfilled order contraction can be a signal for a recession, but new order increase is a sign of an expanding economy.

However, it must be noted that subsequent hard data has been showing an improvement in unfilled orders where this index is showing contraction.

There is conflicting data in this survey, but there normally is. However, the current Empire Survey value overall is above levels associated with past recessions. It is likely looking too closely at the detail may be counterproductive with this survey when the main index number tracts the economy reasonable well.

Caveats on the use of Empire State Manufacturing Survey:

This is a survey, a quantification of opinion – not facts and data. Surveys lead hard data by weeks to months, and can provide early insight into changing conditions. Econintersect finds they do not necessarily end up being consistent compared to hard economic data that comes later, and can miss economic turning points.

This Empire State Survey is very noisy – and has shown recessionary conditions throughout the second half of 2011 – and no recession resulted. Overall, since the end of the 2007 recession – this index has indicated two false recession warnings.

No survey is accurate in projecting employment – and the Empire State Manufacturing Survey is no exception. Although there are some general correlation in trends, month-to-month movements have not correlated with the BLS Service Sector Employment data.

Over time, there is a general correlation with real manufacturing data – but month-to-month conflicts are frequent. At the current time this survey is trending negative while Industrial Production is trending up.

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