October 2011 Business Sales Show No Recessionary Indications

Business sales continued to show moderate growth in October 2011. Business sales combines manufacturing, wholesale and retail sales.

US Census Headlines:

  • sales up 0.7% month-over-month, up 10.9% year-over-year
  • inventories up 0.8% month-over-month, sales-to-inventory ratios up were 1.32 one year ago – and are now 1.30.

Econintersect Analysis:

  • sales down 1.1% month-over-month, and up 10.4% year-over-year
  • sales (inflation adjusted) down 0.2% month-over-month, up 5.9% year-over-year
  • inventories up 2.7% month-over-month, sales-to-inventory ratios 1.30 which is in the middle of the historical channel for this month of the year (good: as high inventories are an recession signal).

Econintersect sees this data as good. There are no recession indications here.

The way data is released, differences between the business releases pumped out by the U.S. Census Bureau are not easy to understand with a quick reading. The entire story doesn’t really come together until the Business Sales Report (this report) comes out.

Today (analysis), Econintersect analyzed advance retail sales for November 2011. That is early data for the month after the data for this post. This is final data from the Census Bureau for October 2011 for:

  • Manufacturing
    • Manufacturing new orders up 0.5% month-over-month, and up 10.1% year-over-year
    • Manufacturing new orders (inflation adjusted) up 2.2% month-over-month, up 2.9% year-over-year
  • sales up 0.9% month-over-month, up 13.1% year-over-year
  • inventories up 1.6% month-over-month, sales-to-inventory ratios were 1.18 one year ago – and are now 1.16
  • sales down 3.0% month-over-month, and up 6.7% year-over-year
  • sales (inflation adjusted) down 3.0% month-over-month, up 1.7% year-over-year

The headlines:

Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for October, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,217.9 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.3%) from September 2011 and up 10.9 percent (±0.3%) from October 2010.

Inventories. Manufacturers’ and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,546.4 billion, up 0.8 percent (±0.1%) from September 2011 and up 8.7 percent (±0.3%) from October 2010.

Inventories/Sales Ratio. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of October was 1.27. The October 2010 ratio was 1.29.

Please see caveats below on the differences between Econintersect data analysis methodology and US Census.

In the new normal – August, September, and October sales have been approximately equal. In October 2011, there was noticeable “less good” business sales when compared to August and September 2011.

Inflation adjusted business sales have remained in a channel between 4% and 8% year-over-year growth since April 2011.

Using inflation adjustments, analysts can more clearly count the quantity of business transactions. Inflation adjusted data shows there are currently no signs of recession.

Many analysts pay particular attention to inventories in this report. Inventories, expressed as a ratio to sales, contracted slightly and remain well within the historical levels for past Augusts. A unusual rise in this ratio would suggest the economy was contracting. As stated earlier, inventory-to-sales ratios are average compared to other Octobers.

Caveats On Business Sales

This data release is based on more complete data than the individual releases of retail sales, wholesale sales and manufacturing sales. Backward revisions are slight – and it is unusual that the revisions would cause a different interpretation of a trend analysis.

The wholesale sales portion of this index is showing remarkable year-over-year increases – and is outperforming all other economic benchmarks.  The question is why?  Econintersect‘s guess is that outsourcing and moving imported products through wholesalers is creating growth.  The approximate year-over-year growth rates:

  • manufacturing up about 10% (3% inflation adjusted)
  • wholesale up about 13% (9% inflation adjusted)
  • retail up about 7% (3% inflation adjusted)

Can the growth in wholesale sales be considered real growth when even the employment levels in this industry remain below pre-recession highs – or that real (inflation adjusted) manufacturing and retail sales growth are only one-third of wholesale?

The data in this series is not inflation adjusted – and Econintersect adjusts using the appropriate BLS price indices relative to the three data series.

  • CPI less shelter for retail sales
  • PPI subindex OMFG for manufacturing
  • PPI subindex PCUAWHLTRAWHLTR for wholesale sales

As in most US Census reports, Econintersect does not agree with the seasonal adjustment methodology used and provides an alternate analysis. The issue is that the exceptionally large recession and subsequent economic roller coaster has caused data distortions that become exaggerated when the seasonal adjustment methodology uses more than one year’s data. Further, Econintersect believes there is a New Normal seasonality and using data prior to the end of the recession for seasonal analysis could provide the wrong conclusion.

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US Census Headline
12.3% YTD
Econintersect (Inflation Adjusted)