A Hint of Sunshine In December Outlook

Last week’s dour overview of the potential effect of the Eurozone crisis seems inconsistent with Econintersect’s December 2011 economic forecast which suggests a weak but improving USA economy.

There is no argument from the pundits that the USA economy seems stable, the disagreements begin when Europe (or even the BRICs) begins to be factored in.  Economic forecasts cannot factor in the unknown.  Both the course and effects of this Euro crisis have unlimited path options.

Some are arguing that the USA has decoupled from the Global economy.  I would argue there is not a chance anyone on the globe has decoupled from anything.  The other extreme is predicting a complete financial meltdown in the USA and Europe – the equivalent of a “financial” winter.

As usual, the arguments of what will happen next are based making assumptions about the uncertainty of the unknown.  Many bloggers and journalists and economists spin the unknown toward worst case scenarios.   Most readers are attracted to the dark side – predictions of doom – and writers find that Doomsday predictions attract readers.

Most knowledgeable analysts can postulate real doomsday scenarios evolving from the current global climate.  Many of these scenarios are based on no or inadequate actions from the financial world, central bankers, and governments.  Can the worst case scenario – a global financial winter – occur?  Yes.

I am a believer that people, business or governments act in their own self interests – a survival instinct.  Self interests dictate that damage is minimized / mitigated and gain is optimized.  Would a Eurozone country just stand there, let the Euro collapse – and have no currency for their economy?  Or allow its banking system to completely fail and allow its citizens to loose all their savings, and leaving businesses without a way to function?

Government treasuries and central banks around the world are “gaming” solutions to a myriad of situations.  I suspect some Eurozone countries might even have new sovereign currency printing presses rolling. Some solutions will be terrible – but other bad solutions might work.

A few things I believe:

1) The timing of the beginning of a new financial crisis might be tomorrow or never (because of change of policy, regulation or direction before the crisis could begin).  There is almost a zero chance that the status quo can remain for any extended period of time;

2) A breakdown of the Eurozone MIGHT actually be beneficial in the medium term to the global economy – as it allows the PIIGS to pick more paths than just austerity (for which there is almost universal agreement that it cannot work because debt levels are too high);

3) The world’s financial system is based on fiat currency.  The only rule for fiat currency is that there are no rules – except the ones a country chooses to impose on itself.  Countries can decide to tax, not to tax, print, set exchange rates, or issue sovereign debt.  A currency’s relative value is based on what others do (and what you do relative to what they do);

4) Economics is not a science.  No economist can provide irrefutable empirical proof of any theory as there are no means to control all experimental variables..

The number of ways this current economic and financial crisis plays out is limited only by the rules we impose.  And unknown change has unknown consequences (both good and bad).

Economic News this Week:

The Econintersect economic forecast for December 2011 predicts weak but improving economic growth.

ECRI has called a recession. Their data looks ahead 6 months and the bottom line for them is that a recession is a certainty. The size and depth is unknown. Although Econintersect’s data is not recessionary (one month look-ahead) – we take this recession call seriously. This week the actual level of ECRI’s WLI index worsened slightly breaking its 4 week “less bad” trend – but it is still indicating the economy six months from today will be worse.

Initial unemployment claims rose 6,000 (from 396,000 which was revised up from a preliminary 393,000 last week) to 402,000. This broke a two week string that claims were under 400,000 – a potentially important economic point.

Historically, claims exceeding 400,000 per week usually occur when employment gains are less than the workforce growth, resulting in an increasing unemployment rate (background here and here). The real gauge – the 4 week moving average – fell slightly to 400,000. Because of the noise (week-to-week movements from abnormal events), the 4-week average remains the reliable gauge.

Overall the data this week continued to show a weakly improving economy. There were no recessionary flags.  The global markets continue to react to developments in Europe – and this week the developments were positive.

Weekly Economic Release Scorecard:

Great Debate: Does Government Create Uncertainty and Prolong the Recession?
November BLS Jobs Report:  Unemployment 8.6%, Non-farm payroll 120,000
October Construction Spending:  Subject to revision, first YoY growth in 48 months
November ISM Manufacturing: Above expectations indicating improving growth
October Pending Home Sales: Indicates continuing improvement in sales volumes
November ADP Employment: Shows a significant improvement of 206,000
December 2011 Economic Forecast: Weak growth continuing but strengthening
November Conference Board Consumer Sentiment: Improving but still bad
September Case-Shiller: Home prices declined 3.6% year-over-year
Energy Transitions Part 1:  Are we transitioning to a new source of energy?
Energy Transitions Part 2: What are the possible energy technology solutions?
Energy Transitions Part 3: What investments are being made in energy?
Great Debate: A spirited debate on whether governments should own the banks
Response to Great Debate: Was the Great Debate too personal?
October New Home Sales: 5 months now of improving sales
Markets:  Is a December rally likely?
Global Bear Markets: October recap listing markets from bad to worse
October Global Markets: October was a wonderful month for most global markets
Warren Buffett: What is he buying and should you be buying too?
US & Europe: Each have different potential
USA Democracy: What does America & American Airlines have in common?
USA Banks: TARP funds repaid – so were they really bailed out?
The Great Recession: The Fed Admits they did not see it coming
ECB: They cannot creat inflation no matter what they do
Greece:  Is it that simple that Greece just issue their own currency
Bankers: Do they Own the government
Employment: Is full employment possible?

Bankruptcies this Week: PMI Group (mortgage insurer), AMR Corporation (parent of American Airlines)

Failed Banks This Week: None

5 replies on “A Hint of Sunshine In December Outlook”

  1. Dear Steven, while would like to tell you we are in total agreement, we fear that you, too, would become “uncoupled”, and the pressure on your brain might become unbearable, for the rest of U.S.

    But, try to remember/imagine…, and if you remember/imagine…
    where China found themselves at the beginning of ought-not-8.

    Huge investments in Wall Street investment banksters “RE securities”, huge investments – about US 35 Billion a month – in FMae&FMac RE securities and in TBills, and the American economy tanking.

    So, while W “nationalize”, for the Communists in China, the American auto industry, the American banking industry and the RE mortgage industry…, we were able to carry on as if nothing had ever happened – sorta.

    And, China began to expand in Europe, to off set the American risks.

    That was then, this is now.

    Europe is imploding, and Ireland “nationalized” the Irish bank debt to German banks, bcuz Germany said they had to. Then the PIIGS are told do “kill off” their old people, bcuz the Germans are telling they have to do that.

    What is China to think?

    That the rest of the world has gone mad?
    {that’s as in “crazy”, not as in “angry”, Steven}

    And WE tell them that they have GOT to stop selling U.S. cheap stuff, starting Far Right now…!!!

    Now Steven, if YOU do not know what is gonna happen to U.S., depending upon what the Europeans permit the Germans to do to them…

    Oh, where were we…, trying to remember/imagine…, and if we remember/imagine…

    So, this time, is it about time, for China to panic.

    Oddly, they do think.., therefore we think not.

    So, is it time to wish you a VERY Merry Christmas, and a VERY Happy New Year?

    Oddly, we do think.., therefore we think not.

  2. Would you find it too odd if China thinks U.S. are “mad”?
    {that’s as in saying we are Far (too?) Right to be “angry”…!!!
    and also as is in being economically “crazy”…!

    Many years ago, in a place very far away…
    (where it really rains, on top of oil – Cordova, ak)
    an attorney friend said to me:
    “Grahame, very few people understand your humor…
    and “I” was that last one that appreciated it!”

    We laughed, and said:
    “Graeme, that’s not true. WE still appreciate it.
    And will till we die.”

    Said he: “Don’t tempt me.”

  3. I am keeping a code book for your humor 🙂

    for me, much of the problem is the misinterpretation by analysts of the driving economic forces. most are thinking in terms of extrapolating their own economy – and projecting it on another.

    unfortunately, this thinking is wrong – an economy needs to be set up the way the participants think. the chinese and germans and americans all think different………..

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