Weekly Highlights 02 September 2011

This is the table that accompanies the weekly economic review article at Global Economic Intersection – and is a summary of the analysis, investing and opinion articles published this week. See the weekly economic summary article: Has Stimulus Distorted Housing Bottom?

Weekly Economic Release Scorecard:

Item Headline Analysis
Economic Review

Macrotides details why real USA economic expansion may be years away
August Jobs
No Jobs
Data is bad, and arguably recessionary. However, there are methodology issues and a Verizon strike in the data
August ISM Manufacturing
Down Slightly
Still positive growth BUT ISM says manufacturing employment expanded in August – Not
2Q2011 Productivity
This downward revision is not a positive sign
July Construction Spending
The data was really flat using current dollars. Construction is still falling if you use chained dollars.
Double Dip Recession

Doug Short documents the current realities
July Manufacturing
Up 2.4%
One sign the economy is expanding – but manufacturing is only 20% of business
August ADP Jobs
Up 91K
Really, 91K is terrible – but when you are looking for recession signs it is better than a negative number
Double Dip Recession

Rick Davis says the data show that a second dip has already occurred
September Economic Forecast

Econintersect forecasts the economy will contract in September – but the floor may be building
August Conference Board Consumer Confidence
This index has never recovered from the Great Recession – and now it is at Great Recession levels
June Case-Shiller
Up 0.4%
The Summer buying season is ending at levels 4.5% lower than last year
Congressional Debt Reduction Commission

Elliott Morss lays out the headwinds for a compromise solution to the USA debt
July Pending Home Sales
Higher YoY
Econintersect uses pending home sales to forecast existing home sales – and the possibilities for August are interesting
July Personal Consumption Expenditures
Up 0.5%
One of the highest growth rates since the end of the Great Recession

Doug Short shows current GDP level has preceded past recessions
Obama Stimulus

The USA economy would be negative for the last two quarters without the stimulus
Gauging Economic Activity

Martin Hutchinson trashes GDP claiming a better economic activity measure would be gross private product
Gut Feelings vs Data

Rick Davis looks at elements at play which logically have an economic impact with no ability to substantiate
2Q2011 GDP

Rick Davis looks at the BEA numbers and history of after-the-fact downward revisions
Winston Churchill

Frank Li postulates what Churchill would be saying today based on his famous quotes
Germany & the Eurozone

Marshall Auerbach suggests there are really three Germanys – only two of them are pro-Euro
Oil and GDP

Andrew Butter looks at oil pricing and predicts another USA GDP collapse
Western Economies

Eduard Fischer paints a gloomy picture of western economies

Michael Pettis predicts a darkening cycle for global trade
Sovereign Currency

Roger Erickson claims our handling of sovereign debt is bizarre
USA Banking

Dan Flemming ties national security issues to the banking system
Muni Bonds

John Lounsbury says doom has not happened to the municipal bond markets – and now they deserve a second look
Volatile Market

David Grandey charts out the volatility saying more will come
August Investment Review

Macrotides reviews this not-so-good month
European Banks

Kieth Fitz-Gerald worries another crisis is on the way
Summary of the Week

Jeff Miller lists the elements which are affecting the market
St Louis Fed Stress Test

Jeff Miller reviews what it is telling us – and if it is warning of economic decline
Dividend Stocks

Bill Barnhart looks at both iffy and good dividend producing stocks