Manufacturing Continues to Resist Contraction in June 2011

US Census says manufacturing new order contracted 0.8% month-over-month in June 2011.  Econintersect concurs and believes manufacturing could have fallen up to 2.4% – but that is a glass half empty view.

The other – more optimistic – view is that manufacturing is up solidly 12.5% (5.5% inflation adjusted) year-over-year.

Econintersect sees few recession warning signs in this data.  But this means little for employment – manufacturing provides less than 10% of employment in the economy.

The health of manufacturing is gauged by the growth of unfilled orders.  This month our analysis adjusted the order value to inflation – to see if the number of “widgets” under order was actually increasing.

The total value of unfilled orders declined month-over-month (blue line), and the year-over-year inflation adjusted change has been negative all of 2011.  Likely this is demonstrating too much capacity combined with growth less than anticipated.

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