Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 3:58 PM abd 5:28 PM EDT) –

– Excessive Heat Warning over parts of the Northern High Plains; Heat Advisory over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southern Plains, Northern/Central Plains, and the Northern High Plains

– Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes Wednesday through early Thursday and for the Southeast through Wednesday morning

– There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Midwest and the Lower Great Lakes through Wednesday morning

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

Please share this article – Go to the very top of the page, right-hand side for social media buttons. Also, feel free to send this email to anyone you feel will benefit from it.

For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021
Valid 00Z Wed Jul 28 2021 – 00Z Fri Jul 30 2021
…Excessive Heat Warning over parts of the Northern High Plains; Heat Advisory over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southern Plains, Northern/Central Plains, and the Northern High Plains…
…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes Wednesday through early Thursday and for the Southeast through Wednesday morning…
…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Midwest and the Lower Great Lakes through Wednesday morning…
Hot conditions will persist across portions of the Northern High Plains, Central and Southeast U.S. – this vast area has Heat Advisories in place from central Montana to central Georgia with pockets of Excessive Heat Warnings over northeast Oklahoma, eastern Montana and north-central Wyoming, as well as, Excessive Heat Watches over parts of Minnesota and Iowa. Daily temperatures will rise into the upper 90s to low 100s. Several regions have Air Quality Alerts due to Canadian wildfires and the wildfires over the Northwest into the Northern Rockies.
The hot and dry airmass over the West has weakened the impact of the Southwest Monsoon but there will be an uptick expected in the risk for excessive rainfall by Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the Southwest, Central/Southern Rockies, and Great Basin through Thursday, becoming more diurnal. Marginal Risk areas are in effect through Thursday and a Slight Risk is in effect for parts of Arizona on Friday.
A front extending from the Northeast, across the Great Lakes and into the Northern High Plains will have multiple waves of low pressure traverse through this boundary as it sags southward. This boundary will provide focus for showers and thunderstorms to develop near it and some may become severe. SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Midwest and the Lower Great Lakes through Wednesday morning; frequent lightning, strong wind gusts, hail, and minimal risk of tornadoes are possible. This threat will translate to the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will also accompany these severe storms. WPC has a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall in effect.
Another front extending from the Mid-Atlantic region across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the Northern Plains will begin to weaken. Tropical moisture will pool over the Southeast, Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains and will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms as pulses of energy pass through in the mid/upper atmosphere. Periods of heavy rain are expected and may lead to an increase risk for flash flooding.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Or for the Day 2 Fire Outlook click here. For the Day 3 – 8 Fire Outlook click here.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast

These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

– Return to Directory

Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Friday July 30 2021 – Tuesday August 03 2021
Hazards:
– Heavy rain across portions of the Upper and Middle Missouri Valley, Fri, Jul 30.
– Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Missouri Valley and Middle Mississippi Valley, Sat, Jul 31.
– Heavy rain across portions of the Front Range and Central High Plains, Sat-Sun, Jul 31-Aug 1.
– Heavy rain across portions of the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley, Sun-Mon, Aug 1-Aug 2.
– Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, Sun-Tue, Aug 1-Aug 3.
– Excessive heat across portions of the Southeast, Fri, Jul 30.
– Excessive heat across portions of the interior Pacific Northwest, Fri-Sat, Jul 30-Jul 31.
– Excessive heat across portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, Fri-Sun, Jul 30-Aug 1.
– Excessive heat across portions of the Southern Plains, Sat-Mon, Jul 31-Aug 2.
– Heavy rain across portions of mainland Alaska, Sat-Mon, Jul 31-Aug 2.
Detailed Summary:
There are several threats for heavy rain and excessive heat ahead in the medium-range forecast period (Friday, July 30 – Tuesday, August 3). The start of the period will feature a ridge over the western and central portions of the U.S. and a trough over the Midwest and Northeast that will begin to dig deeper into the Southeastern U.S. A cold front will move southeast across the Plains and Midwest along the northwesterly upper-level flow on the northeastern side of the ridge, with a second, stationary front draped from the Carolinas west into the Missouri Valley. Organized showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop at the northern extent of a plume of higher moisture ahead of the cold front and along the stationary front on Friday (July 30) over the Upper Missouri Valley, producing heavy rain totals over an inch as they move to the southeast overnight.
Additional organized thunderstorms will likely develop again on Saturday (July 31) ahead of the synoptic fronts and along any mesoscale boundaries produced from the overnight convection, bringing another threat of heavy rain of about 1 to 2 inches to the Lower Missouri Valley and Middle Mississippi Valley. Later in the period, there is a significant signal for widespread heavy rain across the South as showers and thunderstorms form along and ahead of the stationary front, with additional reinforcement from the cold front moving in from the northwest. Daily totals between 1-3 inches and higher appear possible.
The cold front moving southeast from the Midwest will meet the stationary front already in place across the Carolinas and slow its easterly progression from Sunday (August 1) through Tuesday (August 3). There are also chances for additional storms further to the southwest across the Central Gulf Coast along a surface trough. The cold front looks to be a bit faster/more progressive further west with its southern movement, with the heavy rain threat focused between Sunday through Monday (August 2).
Further west, precipitation associated with an active and expanding Moonsoon will bring the threat of heavy rain to portions of the Rockies and High Plains. Showers and thunderstorms producing around 1-2 inches of heavy rain are expected both Saturday and Sunday across the Front Range of the Rockies and Central High Plains from southeastern Wyoming south into northern New Mexico. A backdoor cold front moving in from the northeast may help to enhance this rainfall on Sunday. The heavy rain may continue into Monday as this front stalls along the High Plains, but an extension of the outlook area was not included for now given the more isolated nature of heavier rain totals in the current model guidance. Additionally, an anomalously high increase in moisture further north into central Idaho will lead to the threat of heavy rain on both Sunday and Monday.
In addition to the threat for heavy rain, excessive heat will also be a concern across the South before the eastern trough begins to dig deeper south and precipitation increases ahead of the series of fronts. A combination of high temperatures in the upper 90s to 100 along with dewpoints in the low 70s will lead to heat indices between 105 to 110 along the coast of the Carolinas on Friday. Similar high temperatures and dewpoints contributing to heat indices between 105 to 110 across the Lower Mississippi Valley will continue from Friday through Monday. Finally, high temperatures will increase across the Southern Plains, specifically southern Oklahoma and north Texas, as the upper-level ridge shifts south. A combination of temperatures in the low 100s along with dewpoints around 70 will lead to afternoon heat indices in the mid 100s, with little relief overnight as lows dip only into the upper 70s to low 80s. Excessive heat is also a concern for the interior Pacific Northwest at the beginning of the period, with highs in mid 100s in the Rogue Valley, in the low 100s in eastern Washington and Northwestern Idaho, and in the upper 90s for the Willamette Valley.
In Alaska, a stationary front oriented northeast to southwest across the northwest mainland will lead to continued chances for significant heavy rainfall over both the Seward Peninsula and portions of the western Brooks Range on Saturday through Monday. Some of the heaviest rainfall may approach climatological extremes for these areas. Additional chances for heavy rain look possible further to the southwest, particularly ahead of a low pressure system approaching from the west over the Bering Sea. However, the amounts and placement of any significant rain totals is more uncertain in the model guidance and an outlook area will not be included at this time.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

– Return to Directory

Ski Snow Reports

We will resume snow coverage in the Fall

– Return to Directory

Drought Coverage

We include drought information in this section.

More information can be found here.

July Drought Outlook.

Definitely a rotation but will it continue beyond the Monsoon Season?

Seasonal Outlook Issued May 20, 2021

– Return to Directory

Tropical Events

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

The Eastern Pacific

The Central Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

This graphic updates on Tuesdays

– Return to Directory

Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

For those interested in more detail, there are additional weather maps and information in the MORE WEATHER Addendum. The link to the Addendum is here.

– Return to Directory

Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

For the Day 2 Outlook click here. For Day 3, click here. For Days 4 – 8 click here. An explanation of the risk codes used can be found here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Or for the Day 2 Fire Outlook click here. For the Day 3 – 8 Fire Outlook click here.

– Return to Directory

Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

– Return to Directory

Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

In and of itself Atmospheric Rivers are not a definitive predictor of extreme weather but it shows where concentrated “rivers” of moist air are forecast to be impacting North America and that is part of the equation for severe weather.

This view provides a better view of the Northeast, the Antilles and also Europe.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

The above is the day by day projected pattern of highs and lows for Day 3 through 7. Earlier we show the pattern for Days 1 and 2.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

This represents five days of precipitation rather than three days as shown in the earlier graphic.

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

The areas that have cumulative seven-day precipitation increase. You can see where QPF is accumulating.

Looking ahead to next week.

Usually, nothing shows in this graphic for the following week as it is usually too far out to be forecasting severe weather. But this experimental graphic auto-updates. And further information is available here.

– Return to Directory

Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Current watches, warnings, and advisories issued by the agencies of the National Weather Service. Hazards should show up in the various maps but the below links will take you to all outstanding watches and warnings in each category which may include some categories not covered in the various maps or difficult to find. So if there is a category of interest, click on the appropriate link below.

Winter Storm Warning
High Wind Warning
Storm Warning
Avalanche Warning
Coastal Flood Warning
Flood Warning
High Surf Warning
Flash Flood Watch
Gale Warning
Winter Weather Advisory
Flood Advisory
Coastal Flood Advisory
High Surf Advisory
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning
Dense Fog Advisory
Small Craft Advisory For Hazardous Seas
Small Craft Advisory For Rough Bar
Small Craft Advisory
Brisk Wind Advisory
Hazardous Seas Warning
Lake Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory
Rip Current Statement
Gale Watch
Winter Storm Watch
Flood Watch
High Wind Watch
Special Weather Statement
Air Quality Alert
Hydrologic Outlook

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Convective Outlooks
Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook

This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook

This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook

This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook

The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook

Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook

This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook

This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook