Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 4:14 PM and 6:30 PM EDT) –

– Heavy rainfall and the threat for flash flooding continue across the Southwest as Monsoon activity remains high

– Midsummer heat persists across the Northern/Central Plains and spreads into the Midwest, with the threat of severe thunderstorms on Friday

– Elevated to critical fire weather concerns remain throughout the northern Rockies and northern Great Basin

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

359 PM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021

Valid 00Z Fri Jul 23 2021 – 00Z Sun Jul 25 2021

…Heavy rainfall and the threat for flash flooding continue across the Southwest as Monsoon activity remains high…

…Midsummer heat persists across the Northern/Central Plains and spreads into the Midwest, with the threat of severe thunderstorms on Friday…

…Elevated to critical fire weather concerns remain throughout the Northern Rockies and Great Basin…

Heavy rainfall and the threat for flash flooding from daily storms associated with the Southwest Monsoon will continue through the short-term forecast period, with Friday of particular concern. An upper-level ridge centered over the Four Corners region and an upper-level low retrograding westward out of Texas are funneling an anomalously high amount of moisture into the region. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall remains in effect through tomorrow morning for portions of Arizona, western New Mexico, southwest Colorado, and southern Utah for the threat of heavy downpours with rain rates of 1 inch per hour possible. On Friday, a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) is in effect for portions of central and southeastern Arizona, with a broader slight risk in effect for additional portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into central Colorado. The Moderate Risk area is highlighted for the threat of up to 2 inches per hour rain rates and widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches. A Slight Risk is also in effect for portions of central and southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico on Saturday for the threat of an additional 1 to 2 inches of. Various Flash Flood watches are in effect across the region, with most of Arizona under a watch through at least Saturday evening. The intense rainfall over burn scars remains a concern for flash flooding and the potential for debris flow. Flash flooding will also be a threat locally for areas that have already seen heavy rainfall over the past few days as the Monsoon storms have ramped up.

Hot weather will continue into the beginning of the weekend throughout the Northern and Central Plains, as well as parts of the Midwest. High temperatures generally in the mid- to upper 90s are expected across the region, with little relief at night as temperatures remain in the low to mid-70s. In addition to the heat, moisture will increase ahead of a cold front moving east across the Northern Plains on Friday leading to the chance of thunderstorms, some of which may be severe. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather for central and eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota, with damaging winds and hail the main threats.

Farther west, gusty winds and low humidity combined with the established dry terrain will lead to yet another day of fire weather concerns. The SPC has highlighted portions of northeastern Montana for Critical fire weather conditions and most of the rest of Montana and southern Idaho for Elevated fire weather conditions.

Elsewhere, high temperatures will begin to increase into the low to mid-90s from the Gulf Coast north through the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys as the upper-level ridge begins to build further to the east. Excessive heat will begin to become more of a concern where these higher temperatures are combined with high humidity. Heat advisories are in effect for portions of the Gulf Coast from New Orleans area east to the Central Florida Panhandle and the Tampa area as heat indices may climb into the upper 100s on Friday. An Excessive Heat Watch will also take effect Friday afternoon for the Kansas City area where heat indices over 100 are expected into the weekend. Thunderstorm chances will increase for the Midwest as a warm front lifts north through the region on Friday and Saturday. Thunderstorm chances also look to increase for the Florida Peninsula associated as a trough of low pressure becomes established across the area.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Sunday July 25 2021 – Thursday July 29 2021

Hazards:

– Heavy rain across portions of the Southern Rockies, the Central Great Basin, and the Southwest, Sun-Mon, Jul 25-Jul 26.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, Sun, Jul 25.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Mon-Tue, Jul 26-Jul 27.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast and the Middle Mississippi Valley.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast and the Middle Mississippi Valley.

– Flooding likely across portions of the Central Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley.

– Excessive heat across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, the Ohio Valley, and the Tennessee Valley, Sun-Wed, Jul 25-Jul 28.

– Excessive heat across portions of the Central Plains, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains, Mon-Wed, Jul 26-Jul 28.

– Excessive heat across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains, Tue-Thu, Jul 27-Jul 29.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of California, the Central Great Basin, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Sun-Mon, Jul 25-Jul 26.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Northern Plains, the Southern Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Great Lakes, Sun-Thu, Jul 25-Jul 29.

Detailed Summary:

The medium range hazards forecast during the latter part of July (Sunday, July 25th – Thursday, July 29th) features the migration of lingering hot weather atop the interior Northwest to east of the Rockies and the Midwest. Meanwhile, the ongoing Southwest Monsoon remains active to close out the weekend, before rainfall coverage decreases in the Southwest early next week. Several rounds of thunderstorms press southeast from the Northeast and the Southeast Missouri Valley ahead of several fronts. Heavy rain chances increase over Florida as a surface trough in the Gulf of Mexico focuses thunderstorm development to begin next week.

No changes have occurred regarding the Heavy Rain area over the Desert Southwest; Sunday falls toward the tail end of an active heavy rain period in the region. Higher rainfall amounts over an inch are likely towards the Arizona Mojave Desert as a retrograding upper low phases with deep Pacific moisture embedded in the area. Rainfall amounts begin to wane by Monday as the upper low propagates off the California coast and ridging consolidates over the Colorado Rockies, ultimately pulling the monsoon moisture north into the Great Basin. Areas containing inundated soils or burn scars will be especially sensitive to the heavy rainfall. It is worth noting that locations north of the Heavy Rain area could experience very localized burn scar flooding even with sub-hazard rainfall amounts midweek. Users residing in and close to sensitive areas are encouraged to monitor the local forecast for the latest developments. Otherwise, clouds and rain will provide relief from the usual desert heat, with afternoon temperatures 10-15 degrees below average possible through Wednesday over the Southwest and South-Central Great Basin. Rainfall also should assist with the prolonged drought conditions that blanket the majority of the region.

North of the monsoon activity, hot weather will linger over the interior Northwest until Monday with high temperatures anomalies greater than 10 degrees forecast. By Tuesday, temperatures in interior Northwest will moderate to around seasonal as the upper ridge strengthens over the Central Plains, bringing hot temperatures east of the Rockies. Triple digit high temperatures resume within the Excessive Heat over eastern Montana into the Dakotas through Wednesday. A weak frontal system is forecast to pass through on Tuesday, but will do little to quell the heat overall. Given the recent impacts from extreme heat in the region, synoptic footprint of a strengthening upper ridge, and supporting ensemble probabilities of exceeding 100 degrees, the Excessive Heat area was extended until the 28th. Over the Central Plains the Excessive Heat area was expanded north to match increasing probabilities of exceeding 100 degrees, and trimmed in the south where the hot temperatures are less anomalous. Thunderstorms initiating along a front in the Northeast Missouri Valley could throw a wrench in the the heat that materializes, but specifics are unclear at the medium range. Elsewhere, the Excessive Heat area in the Ozarks/Southern Plains was remains until the 28th, where sweltering maximum heat indices of 110 are possible. Similar to the Central Plains, thunderstorm development may impact the heat that materializes but confidence in specifics is low.

On the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, a broad area of thunderstorms is likely from the Northeast into the Ohio Valley ahead of a series of fronts Sunday into Monday, with uncertainty as to where higher totals set up. From then on, the bulk of the medium range thunderstorm activity is expected to shift along and east of the Mississippi River. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall totals are possible across the Mid-Atlantic into the Mississippi Delta Monday/Tuesday as thunderstorms develop ahead of a cold front. A Heavy Rain area was added across southern Virginia into eastern North Carolina amongst reasonable deterministic/ensemble agreement over an inch ahead of the front, corresponding with above average streamflows along the coast. The activity will push toward the coast later next week, but hazardous heavy rain is not anticipated.

To the south of the frontal activity, Heavy Rain is possible across Florida on Sunday associated with a surface low/trough in the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring this feature for potential tropical development, noting a marginally conductive environment for development into early next week. Users are encouraged to monitor the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast information regarding this feature. Looking into Thursday-Friday next week, a stalled front over the Upper Midwest focuses showers and thunderstorms across Wisconsin into the Great Lakes, but uncertainty regarding the amounts and placement of rainfall precludes a Heavy Rain area.

For Alaska, rain showers are expected for the the Sunday ahead of a system over the Gulf of Alaska. Some higher amounts are possible along the West Coast of Alaska as a system approaches from the Aleutians toward the later half of the forecast period, but confidence is too low to introduce a Heavy Rain area.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

We will resume snow coverage in the Fall

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Drought Coverage

We include drought information in this section.

More information can be found here.

July Drought Outlook.

Seasonal Outlook Issued May 20, 2021

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Tropical Events

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

The Eastern Pacific

The Central Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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