Written by Sig Silber
HEADLINES (Updated 4:50 PM EDT) –
– Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Tennessee and the Lower Mississippi Valleys and parts of the Mid-Atlantic
– Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains through Friday morning
– Extreme to Elevated Fire Weather conditions are in place across much of the Interior West
This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.
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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.
Readers can scan through this article or jump to where they want to go via the links to the right. To get back to the Directory, hit the back arrow at the top of the URL bar on your screen. But in many cases, one of my Editors has graciously inserted a Return to Directory link to click so that is even easier. This is so high tech that I hardly believe it. |
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CONUS Focal Points
Short Range Focal Points
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
416 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021
Valid 00Z Fri Jun 11 2021 – 00Z Sun Jun 13 2021
…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Tennessee and the Lower Mississippi Valleys and parts of the Mid-Atlantic…
…There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains through Friday morning…
…Extreme to Elevated Fire Weather conditions are in place across much of the Interior West…
A front extends from the Mid-Atlantic to the Upper Great Lakes then westward to the Northern High Plains trailing off the southwest over the Great Basin. The main low will move eastward to the Great Lakes by Saturday evening, while parts of the boundary will linger over parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Multiple upper-level impulses are east of the Mississippi River, one over the Mid-Atlantic, second over the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the third over the interior Central Gulf Coast.
The upper-level energy over the interior Central Gulf Coast will produce showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rain. The WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers through Friday morning.
Also, the thunderstorms over the Mid-Atlantic will produce heavy rain over the region. The WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms. The associated heavy rain will make numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers through Friday morning.
The area ahead of the front in the Rockies will be venerable to fire weather conditions. There will be low relative humidity and gusty wind in the area ahead of the front, which has led to an Extreme Risk of fire weather over parts of the Rockies/Great Basin.
Meanwhile, the part of the front over the Northern Plains will produce showers and thunderstorms. The SPC has issued a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Northern Plains through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There is a 10% or greater probability of wind gust of 65 knots or greater over parts of the Northern/Central Plains.
Additionally, there is a 10% or greater probability of two-inch or great hail over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains through Friday morning.
Moreover, some of the highest elevations of the Northern Rockies will get snow on Thursday evening into Friday. The severe thunderstorm threat weakens on Saturday and moves to the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop east of the Mississippi River on Friday and Saturday. With the upper-level energy over the Mid-Atlantic, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over the area on Friday into Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will produce numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers through Saturday morning.
In the meantime, a weak front will come onshore over the Pacific Northwest on Friday and dissipate by Saturday morning. The system will produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest through Saturday afternoon.
We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.
When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.
Thunderstorm Risk
This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation
Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.
The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.
Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.
Day One CONUS Forecast | Day Two CONUS Forecast |
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These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be | |
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During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.
Temperature
A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here
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Day 3 – 7 Hazards
Valid Sunday June 13 2021 – Thursday June 17 2021
Hazards:
– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Tennessee Valley.
– Flooding likely across portions of the Tennessee Valley.
– Excessive heat across portions of the Central Great Basin, the Northern Rockies, the Central Rockies, California, the Northern Great Basin, and the Southwest, Sun-Thu, Jun 13-Jun 17.
– Excessive heat across portions of the Central Great Basin, California, and the Southwest, Wed-Thu, Jun 16-Jun 17.
– Excessive heat across portions of the Central Rockies, the Central Plains, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains, and the Northern Rockies, Sun-Wed, Jun 13-Jun 16.
– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, the Southern Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Northern Great Basin, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Southwest, Sun-Thu, Jun 13-Jun 17.
Detailed Summary:
The medium range forecast period (Sunday, June 13 to Thursday, June 17) will feature a building upper-level ridge over the Southwest and central/southern Rockies, with upper-level troughs found over the East and Pacific Northwest. As a result, this weather pattern is forecast to focus much of the precipitation along the East Coast, Southeast, and Gulf Coast. However, outside of local impacts from isolated downpours, no widespread heavy rain is expected during this time frame. Temperatures are expected to remain around average to slightly below average along the East Coast, Southeast, and Deep South as well.
The main weather story across the Lower 48 during the medium range period will be associated with excessive heat and much above average temperatures throughout the West and north-central United States. By Sunday, above average temperatures will begin to build across the Intermountain West, northern/central Rockies, and northern Plains.
The sizzling heat will settle over this region due to an anomalously strong upper-level ridge/high pressure centered near the Four Corners region. There is high confidence within the global forecast guidance regarding this feature and associated weather pattern. The center of the highest temperature anomalies (15 to 25 degrees above average) are currently forecast over the northern Rockies and northern High Plains on Monday and Tuesday of next week. Widespread temperatures in the 90s are expected, with triple digits also likely extending over central and eastern Montana into the northern Plains.
The excessive heat area on the hazards graphic found over the Northern Plains highlights where the greatest chances of high temperatures eclipsing the century mark exist. This area of extreme heat may make it dangerous for residents spending an extended amount of time outdoors, or those that do not have access to air conditioning. The heat should relax a bit on Thursday from the Northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest, but remain around 10 degrees above average. The Intermountain West will also see scorching heat beginning on Sunday and lingering through next week. Places such as Salt Lake City, Utah could experience multiple days with high temperatures close to 100 degrees. Parts of the northern Great Basin should see a brief relief from the summer heat on Wednesday as a Pacific cold front sweeps through.
Meanwhile, the Desert Southwest will also see its fair share of extreme and relentless heat, which will undoubtedly increase the already exceptional drought conditions over the region. With several consecutive days of high temperatures between 110 and 120 degrees possible beginning on Sunday, residents are urged to plan on spending plenty of time indoors/out of the heat. High temperatures will likely soar higher than 120 degrees throughout the typical desert valleys in the Southwest starting on Tuesday. This heat, along with the aforementioned upper-level high pressure system, is forecast to expand westward and into parts of California by Wednesday. Several daily high temperature records are forecast early next week from southwest California and Arizona to Montana. A few monthly and/or all-time temperature records are not out of the question throughout the Southwest as well.
No widespread hazardous weather is expected for Alaska during this time frame.
(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together. |
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.
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Ski Snow Reports
We will resume snow coverage in the Fall
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Drought Coverage
We include drought information in this section.
More information can be found here.
June Drought Outlook.
Seasonal Outlook Issued May 20, 2021
Here is the short version of the discussion that was released with the new forecast.
Latest Seasonal Assessment – Drought improved across parts of Texas, northeastern Colorado, central Wyoming and the Northeast in the past month due to heavy rainfall, while drought developed or intensified in many parts of California, the Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain West, Northern Rockies, and the Carolinas due to increasing precipitation deficits. Drought persistence or development is favored for most of the West and High Plains, based on elevated probabilities of below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures for June-July-August. Drought removal or improvement is expected across east-central Texas along with most of Oklahoma due to heavy recent rainfall and additional heavy rainfall forecast for the rest of May.Lack of a rainfall signal from monthly and seasonal precipitation outlooks supports drought persistence across the Midwest. The Great Plains and Corn Belt will be closely monitored in the monthly drought outlooks through the summer. The wet monthly and seasonal outlooks along with the onset of the convective season strongly support removal across the small drought areas in southern Florida. The persistence forecast for the Northeast is based on a weak rainfall signal and likelihood of above normal temperatures during June-July-August along with a favorable time for soil moisture discharge.
Alaska is forecast to remain drought-free through the end of August. Drought is favored to persist across Puerto Rico during the next few months. Drought development and persistence is forecast across the leeward sides of the Hawaiian Islands.
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Tropical Events
I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps. Sorry for any confusion but the NHC maps do not update during the Winter except if there is activity. We leave them in simply because if there is a storm NOAA will start to update the relevant map even though it is not normally updated during the off season. The maps are a bit small but if you click the map you can see the date and time when it was updated.
| the Central Pacific. | the Eastern Pacific | the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico |
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Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico
NA
The Eastern Pacific
The Central Pacific
NA
Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.
And the Western Pacific
Weekly Tropical Forecast
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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast
And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).
First Temperature
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And then Precipitation
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For those interested in more detail, there are additional weather maps and information in the MORE WEATHER Addendum. The link to the Addendum is here. |
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Mesoscale Events
The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.
Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.
This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.
There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.
The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.
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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps
The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.
The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.
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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report
This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.
500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View
The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.
| Day 3 Above, 6 Below | Day 4 Above,7 Below | Day 5 Above. |
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Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3
Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5
Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7
Looking ahead to next week.
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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings
| Current watches, warnings, and advisories issued by the agencies of the National Weather Service. Hazards should show up in the various maps but the below links will take you to all outstanding watches and warnings in each category which may include some categories not covered in the various maps or difficult to find. So if there is a category of interest, click on the appropriate link below. |
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Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.
Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.
| Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event. | These maps are updated as risks are identified. |
| This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page. |  |
| Convective Outlooks | |
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| This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online. | Today’s Outlook |
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| This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. | Tomorrow’s Outlook |
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| This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. | Day 3 Outlook |
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| This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point). | Day 4-8 Outlook |
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| The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent. | Thunderstorm Outlook |
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| Fire Weather Outlooks | |
| This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Today’s Outlook |
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| This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Tomorrow’s Outlook |
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| This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Day 3-8 Outlook |
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