Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 5:49 PM EDT) –

– Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms and a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains, tonight

– Below average temperatures across much of the central and eastern United States, while heat builds over the West this Memorial Day weekend

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

Directory

CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 341 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

Valid 00Z Sat May 29 2021 – 00Z Mon May 31 2021

…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms and a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains, tonight…

…Below average temperatures across much of the central and eastern United States, while eat builds over the West this Memorial Day weekend…

A front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Central Appalachians, then southwestward to the Southern High Plains, will move off the Atlantic Coast and the Gulf Coast by Saturday evening. Additionally, there is an upper-level low over the Western Ohio Valley/Upper Great Lakes that will slowly move to the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday evening. The low will produce rain over parts of the Ohio Valley into parts of the Northeast with embedded thunderstorms over the Southern Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic Saturday morning. The rain will continue over the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, with scattered rain showers over parts of the Western Ohio Valley on Saturday. The rain will continue over the Mid-Atlantic through Sunday evening. The upper-level low will also keep maximum daytime temperatures low over the central and eastern U.S., with several areas have of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic having record-making low maximum daily temperatures.

Along the western end of the front, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southern Plains through late Saturday night. The SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with the severe thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gust, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, there is a 10% or greater probability of two-inch hail or larger over parts of the Southern Plains into the Southern High Plains through Saturday morning. The thunderstorms will produce heavy rain.

The WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains through Saturday morning. The heavy rain will create scattered areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams being the most vulnerable. The severe thunderstorm threat will linger over the Central/Southern High Plains through Monday. Likewise, the excessive rainfall threat will continue over parts of the Central/Southern High plains into Monday, too.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy moving across the Northern Tier States will produce rain and thunderstorms over parts of the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies through Friday night. On Saturday, the area of rain and thunderstorms will move into the Northern Central Plains and extend from the upper Mississippi Valley to the Southern Plains on Sunday.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Monday May 31 2021 – Friday June 04 2021

Hazards:

– Heavy rain across portions of the Southern Plains, Mon-Wed, May 31-Jun 2.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Central Plains, the Southern Plains, and the Northern Great Basin.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Northern Rockies.

– Flooding likely across portions of the Central Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of California, the Northern/Central Great Basin, the Pacific Northwest, and the Northern Rockies, Mon-Thu, May 31-Jun 3.

Detailed Summary:

A low pressure system developing along the front range will go on to produce heavy rain over parts of the Southern Plains while high pressure will produce hot weather for the Northwest during the Medium Range period (Monday, May 31st – Friday, June 4th). An upper-level trough will eject a low pressure system from the Rockies into the Central Plains on Sunday. This system will move into the Central/Southern Plains on Memorial Day.

An influx of Gulf moisture will produce heavy rain over parts of northern Texas into much of central Oklahoma on Monday and Tuesday. Heavy rain will spread into eastern Oklahoma on Tuesday and Wednesday as the system and associated warm front begin to lift toward the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys. Rain and thunderstorms will spread into the aforementioned areas, as well as the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic from Wednesday to Friday along a stationary boundary draped along the Gulf coast. Upper-level ridging in the West will lead to Much Above Normal Temperatures across much of the Northwest between Memorial Day and Thursday.

High temperatures are likely to be between 15-25 degrees above normal for most of the interior Pacific Northwest/California with some places potentially eclipsing 30 degree high temperature anomalies on Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures for this area will be in the 80s and 90s during this time.

For Alaska, an area of low pressure will move into the Gulf of Alaska on Sunday. Moisture associated with the low will stream into the coastal regions producing rain from parts of the Kenai Peninsula eastward to near Valdez. On Monday, rain will fall on the Pacific side of Kodiak Island and the Alaska Peninsula Coast across from Kodiak Island. On Tuesday, the rainfall moves towards Yakutat. Models have trended downward with respect to precipitation forecasts along the Gulf coast which is why we’ve removed the heavy rain hazard areas for Alaska during this period.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods. Or for the Day 2 Fire Outlook click here. For the Day 3 – 8 Fire Outlook click here. Thunderstorm Risk This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding. The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read. Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily. Day One CONUS Forecast Day Two CONUS Forecast These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving. Temperature A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here – Return to Directory Day 3 – 7 Hazards Valid Friday May 28 2021 – Tuesday June 01 2021 Hazards: – Heavy rain across portions of the Plains, and the Mississippi Valley, Sun-Tue, May 30-Jun 1. – Heavy rain across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, the Central Appalachians, and the Ohio Valley, Fri, May 28. – Flooding possible across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley. – Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains. – Flooding likely across portions of the Northern Rockies. – Much above normal temperatures across portions of California, the Central Great Basin, the Pacific Northwest, and the Northern Great Basin, Mon-Tue, May 31-Jun 1. – Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Fri-Sun, May 28-May 30. Detailed Summary: In the medium-range forecast period, which includes the Memorial Day weekend, there is a wavy front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio Valley then southwestward to the Southern Plains. The front has a wave of low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic that will produce rain over the region on Friday. The wave of low pressure moves offshore on Saturday and the rain diminishes. The system will produce enough rain to have an area of heavy rain over parts of the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. A second wave along the front over the Ohio Valley on Friday will have stronger wind associated with the low over the Great Lakes on Friday and Saturday, with Lake Erie having the high wind the longest. The wind speed will not meet the criteria for an area of high wind. The tail end of the front mentioned above will move over the Central/Southern Plains on Sunday. The air over the Central/Southern Plains will become unstable, aiding in the development of a MCS over parts of the Central/Southern Plains on Sunday, producing heavy rain over the area. An area of heavy rain is depicted over the region on Sunday. A second front moving out of the Northern High plains will move over the Central/Southern Plains on Monday into Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and near the boundary that will produce rain through Tuesday. The area of heavy rain will fall over parts that rain that fell on Sunday. The location of heavy rain will extend to a greater extent over the Central/Southern Plains through Tuesday. An area of heavy rain is depicted over the region through Tuesday. Upper-level ridging will develop over the Pacific Northwest into California on Sunday into Tuesday. The upper-level ridging will allow temperatures to get into the upper 80s over the Northwest and the 90s into the 100s over parts of California. With this in mind, an area of much above normal temperatures is directed over the place from Monday into Tuesday. Furthermore, high pressure over the Eastern Pacific and a heat trough over California will produce strong winds offshore and near the coast. Still, at this time, the wind speed is below the criteria for an area of high winds. However, the situation will need to have an eye kept on the wind to see if the wind will meet the criteria later. For Alaska, an area of low pressure along the Aleutians on Friday will move into the Gulf of Alaska by Sunday. Moisture associated with the low will stream into the coastal regions producing heavy rain from parts of the Kenai Peninsula eastward to the Inside Passage on Saturday and Sunday. At this time, the precipitation seems to be rain, but some of the higher peaks will still get snow.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map (or maps) weekly (or more often when the situation is changing rapidly) but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

We also include drought information in this section.

More information can be found here.

May Drought Outlook.

Seasonal Outlook Issued May 20, 2021

Here is the short version of the discussion that was released with the new forecast.

Latest Seasonal Assessment – Drought improved across parts of Texas, northeastern Colorado, central Wyoming and the Northeast in the past month due to heavy rainfall, while drought developed or intensified in many parts of California, the Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain West, Northern Rockies, and the Carolinas due to increasing precipitation deficits. Drought persistence or development is favored for most of the West and High Plains, based on elevated probabilities of below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures for June-July-August. Drought removal or improvement is expected across east-central Texas along with most of Oklahoma due to heavy recent rainfall and additional heavy rainfall forecast for the rest of May.Lack of a rainfall signal from monthly and seasonal precipitation outlooks supports drought persistence across the Midwest. The Great Plains and Corn Belt will be closely monitored in the monthly drought outlooks through the summer. The wet monthly and seasonal outlooks along with the onset of the convective season strongly support removal across the small drought areas in southern Florida. The persistence forecast for the Northeast is based on a weak rainfall signal and likelihood of above normal temperatures during June-July-August along with a favorable time for soil moisture discharge.

Alaska is forecast to remain drought-free through the end of August. Drought is favored to persist across Puerto Rico during the next few months. Drought development and persistence is forecast across the leeward sides of the Hawaiian Islands.

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Tropical Events

I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps. Sorry for any confusion but the NHC maps do not update during the Winter except if there is activity. We leave them in simply because if there is a storm NOAA will start to update the relevant map even though it is not normally updated during the off season. The maps are a bit small but if you click the map you can see the date and time when it was updated.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

NA

The Eastern Pacific

The Central Pacific

NA

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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