Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 5:01 PM EDT) –

– Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic into tonight

– Developing area of low pressure to bring wet snow across portions of Upstate New York and northern Vermont between tonight and Thursday

– Record-breaking cold to engulf areas from the Lower Mississippi Valley to Northeast by Friday morning

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021

Valid 00Z Thu Apr 01 2021 – 00Z Sat Apr 03 2021

…Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic into tonight…

…Developing area of low pressure to bring wet snow across portions of Upstate New York and northern Vermont between tonight and Thursday…

…Record-breaking cold to engulf areas from the Lower Mississippi Valley to Northeast by Friday morning…

A sharp cold front pushing into the Deep South and eastern U.S. will continue to help triggering bands of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain from the Deep South to the Mid-Atlantic. The areas most susceptible to severe weather and heavy rain will be across the Deep South to the Carolinas through this evening. Meanwhile, a wave of low pressure developing along the front is expected to intensify rapidly as it skirts the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight, reaching the New England coast by Thursday morning.

A cold air mass will be ushered into the Deep South and the East Coast tonight ending the threat of severe weather by then. However, as the low pressure system gains strength, wet snow is expected to expand across Upstate New York and northern Vermont later this evening into Thursday, where a few inches of accumulation is forecast to fall across many areas of Upstate New York with 8 or more inches possible over the Adirondacks as well as northern Vermont. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for these areas. On the warm side of the storm system, light-to-moderate rain will impact the Northeast tonight and move into northern New England by Thursday morning. The combination of warm temperatures, melting snow, and rain could cause rivers to rise and ice jams to form across northern Maine where Flash Flood Watches have been issued.

Meanwhile, sharply colder air will surge into the eastern U.S. behind the low pressure system. A large area of Freeze Warnings is in effect across the Middle Mississippi, Tennessee and into the Ohio Valleys in anticipation of this cold surge. Temperatures 15 to 25 degrees below average and even colder wind chill values will enter the Southeast, Appalachians, and interior sections of the Northeast on Thursday. However, the coldest time period is expected to be on Friday morning as the center of a strong high pressure system settles over the Ohio Valley. This will allow for temperatures to drop into the 20s as far south as northern Mississippi and Alabama. This may lead to damage to early-season crops and foliage. Many record low temperatures are forecast to be tied or broken throughout the Deep South, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys on Friday morning.

Elsewhere, the western and central U.S. will have a tranquil end of March and beginning of April with virtually no precipitation in the forecast. A general warming trend will bring well above average temperatures along with dry conditions, leading to an increasing danger of wildfires across the northern Plains and central High Plains. The southern Plains and Pacific Northwest will be the only exceptions, with temperatures remaining slightly below average into Friday. For southern California, Wind Advisories are in effect today as Santa Ana winds develop behind a dry cold front. Wind gusts up to 50 mph could blow around unsecured objects and raise the fire danger across the region.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Saturday April 03 2021 – Wednesday April 07 2021

Hazards:

– Heavy snow across portions of the Central Great Basin and California, Tue-Wed, Apr 6-Apr 7.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Appalachians.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Appalachians, the Ohio Valley, and the Tennessee Valley.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Appalachians, the Ohio Valley, and the Tennessee Valley.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Ohio Valley, and the Tennessee Valley.

– Flooding likely across portions of the Ohio Valley.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of California and the Southwest, Sat-Mon, Apr 3-Apr 5.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Southern Plains, Tue-Wed, Apr 6-Apr 7.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley, Sat, Apr 3.

– Heavy snow across portions of mainland Alaska, Sat-Sun, Apr 3-Apr 4.

Detailed Summary:

At the beginning of the forecast period (Saturday, April 3rd), the weather pattern over much of the U.S. will be dominated by large scale ridging anchored over the Plains, with an upper low departing the Maine coast. Accordingly, the predominant hazard during days 3-7 over the CONUS are temperature anomalies associated with this pattern. On Saturday morning in the Tennessee Valley, cool high pressure centered over the region will meander southeast through the day. Another shot of below average temperatures (10-15 degrees) is likely across the Piedmont into northern Georgia, just past the climatological date of last expected spring freeze. Given the vulnerability of newly planted crops in the region, have maintained a Much Below Normal temperature area for April 3rd. The cooler temperatures will moderate to above freezing by Sunday.

Elsewhere, summer-like warmth could be problematic over the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains through the forecast period as the upper level ridge builds and eventually migrates eastward. High temperatures could hit 100 degrees in Death Valley and further east into the Phoenix area over the weekend. Southwesterly flow will usher in warmth to west Texas April 6th-7th, bringing with it temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal. Temperatures also approach the 90s in central Texas as strong southerly flow pushes in, but the warm temperatures in this area are more in line with climatology and thus not considered
hazardous.

Precipitation wise, the threat of heavy snow remains in Alaska April 3rd – 4th, as a frontal system traverses the Bering Sea over th e mainland. Some gusty winds may accompany the storm, but will remain below hazardous levels. Further south on days 5-6, shortwave energy is forecast to translate south along the coast of British Columbia towards the Pacific Northwest, in conjunction with a cut-off low lifting towards the coast of California. As with yesterday, solutions differ greatly as to how these features will interact, in part due to upstream shortwave interactions with low predictability at this range. However, the general pattern of a slow moving trough across the West Coast would favor a bout of heavy mountain snow and lower elevation rain. Corroborated by an ensemble signal for accumulating snow, a heavy snow area was introduced to the Sierra April 6th-7th. On day 7, there is some ensemble support for convectively driven heavy rain associated with a frontal system in the upper Midwest ahead of a strong moisture advection regime. However, uncertainty regarding the progression of the upper trough, coupled with the inherent mesoscale details of this event precludes the need for a Heavy Rain area at this time.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map (or maps) weekly (or more often when the situation is changing rapidly) but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

We also include drought information in this section.

More information can be found here.

March Drought Outlook..

Seasonal Outlook Issued February 18, 2021

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Tropical Events

I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps. Sorry for any confusion but the NHC maps do not update during the Winter except if there is activity. We leave them in simply because if there is a storm NOAA will start to update the relevant map even though it is not normally updated during the off season. The maps are a bit small but if you click the map you can see the date and time when it was updated.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

The Central Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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