Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 4:07 PM EDT) –

– Exiting storm system to bring gusty winds to the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast today

– Heavy rain and the threat of severe thunderstorms to enter the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valley regions on Saturday

– Record warmth expected along the East Coast, with below average temperatures forecast across much of the Rockies and Southwest

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 342 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

Valid 12Z Fri Mar 26 2021 – 12Z Sun Mar 28 2021

…Exiting storm system to bring gusty winds to the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast today…

…Heavy rain and the threat of severe thunderstorms to enter the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valley regions on Saturday…

…Record warmth expected along the East Coast, with below average temperatures forecast across much of the Rockies and Southwest…

A strengthening low pressure system is forecast to dash across the Lower Great Lakes this afternoon and pass over northern New England tonight. The main impacts will be associated with gusty winds from the Ohio Valley through the Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Wind gusts up to 60 mph in these regions will have the potential to blown down trees and power lines. Travel may also become difficult at times for high profile vehicles. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories have been issued. Flooding is also a concern across northern Vermont and northeast New York, as the combination of moderate rain and snowmelt enters swollen rivers in the region. Flood Watches are currently in effect.

Farther west, the next system to track across the Lower 48 is forecast to bring light mountain snow to the central and southern Rockies today. Snowfall totals will exceed 6 inches across the high terrain of Colorado.

As the upper-level trough swings east on Saturday, an abundant amount of moisture will surge north from the Gulf of Mexico and into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys. This will aid in producing widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region through early Sunday morning. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches are forecast from southern Arkansas to Kentucky. Many of these locations have seen above normal rainfall over the last month; therefore, additional rainfall could exacerbate flooding concerns. WPC has issued a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for Saturday and includes much of the aforementioned areas. The threat of severe thunderstorms is also a concern given the rich atmospheric moisture in place and approaching cold front. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe weather on Saturday that includes eastern Arkansas, west Tennessee, and far northern Mississippi. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes will all be possible with these storms.

The final Friday of the month will feature record warmth along the East Coast as high temperatures soar into the 70s and 80s, with a few locations in Florida reaching the low 90s today and Saturday. Record daily high temperatures could be set in many spots from Massachusetts to central Florida. Temperatures will take a dip on Saturday, but still remain above average throughout much of the eastern half of the country. The only region to experience below normal temperatures over the next few days will be the Southwest, Intermountain West, and Rockies.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Monday March 29 2021 – Friday April 02 2021

Hazards:

– Heavy snow across the higher elevations of northwestern Montana, Mon, Mar 29.

– Flooding possible across portions of the interior Southeast, the southern Appalachians, into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley, as well as northern New England.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley.

– High winds across much of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, Mon, Mar 29.

– Heavy precipitation across the Alaska Panhandle into the southern coastal ranges of mainland Alaska, Tue-Wed, Mar 30-Mar 31.

Detailed Summary:

The medium-range forecast period (Monday, March 29th to Friday, April 2nd) will begin with a rather strong low pressure system moving out of New England. Strong and gusty winds behind the exiting system over much of New England Monday morning should gradually subside as the day progresses.

Meanwhile, another strong low pressure system will be exiting the northern Rockies toward the Canadian prairies Monday morning. The tight pressure gradient behind the strong storm and its associated sharp cold front will likely bring high winds across much of Montana into parts of Wyoming on Monday. The higher elevations of northwestern Montana should also see moderate to heavy snowfall Monday morning before the snow gradually tapering off into Monday night. The snow should then reach the Colorado Rockies Monday night with moderate snowfall before tapering off Tuesday night behind the departing cold front.

The aforementioned cold front will continue to push toward the eastern U.S. through the middle of next week. The southern Appalachians and vicinity should see the greatest chance of receiving enhanced rainfall ahead of the front. Although no areas of heavy rain is indicated on the chart, locally heavy rainfall is possible in this region during midweek next week. By around next Thursday, there is good model signal for a low pressure wave to develop along the cold front which will be ready to exit the East Coast.

Interior New England should see the greatest chance for the rain to change over to snow before ending. Meanwhile, much of the Northeast should experience rapidly falling temperatures and blustery winds behind the exiting front and the low pressure system.

For Alaska, a deep cyclone that is forecast to move over the Bearing Sea on Sunday will gradually push into mainland Alaska during the next few days. Although no hazard areas are depicted on the chart, much of western and southwestern Alaska will likely experience moderate snowfall, blowing snow, as well as storm surges along the coast under blustery southerly winds on Monday followed by slow improvements through midweek.

Meanwhile, moisture from the Pacific will likely stream toward the Alaska Panhandle as a low pressure system is forecast to intensify on the trailing front. This will bring the likelihood of heavy mountain snow and mixed rain and snow on the immediate coast across the Alaska Panhandle into the southern coastal ranges of mainland Alaska Tuesday and Wednesday.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map (or maps) weekly (or more often when the situation is changing rapidly) but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

We also include drought information in this section.

More information can be found here.

March Drought Outlook..

Seasonal Outlook Issued February 18, 2021

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Tropical Events

I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps. Sorry for any confusion but the NHC maps do not update during the Winter except if there is activity. We leave them in simply because if there is a storm NOAA will start to update the relevant map even though it is not normally updated during the off season. The maps are a bit small but if you click the map you can see the date and time when it was updated.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

The Central Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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