Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 4:14 PM EST) –

– Heavy snow likely for parts of the Upper Midwest through Thursday morning

– Potential for severe weather over parts of the Central Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley

– Flash and urban flooding possible from the Central Plains to the Ohio Valley

– Critical risk of fire weather in the Southern Plains and Southwest

– Temperatures throughout the eastern U.S. will be up to 20 degrees above normal Thursday and Friday

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 325 PM EST Wed Mar 10 2021

Valid 00Z Thu Mar 11 2021 – 00Z Sat Mar 13 2021

…Heavy snow likely for parts of the Upper Midwest through Thursday morning…

…Potential for severe weather over parts of the Central Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley…

…Flash and urban flooding possible from the Central Plains to the Ohio Valley…

…Critical risk of fire weather in the Southern Plains and Southwest…

…Temperatures throughout the eastern U.S. will be up to 20 degrees above normal Thursday and Friday…

A low pressure system with a frontal boundary extending from the Southwest to the Upper Great Lakes is forecast to slowly propagate northeast over the next couple of days. To the north and east of the primary low pressure center, cold temperatures and shortwave energy will work in tandem to generate moderate to heavy snow from the Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. While northeast Minnesota will likely receive the highest snowfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, widespread accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible across the affected areas. As such, Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories are in effect primarily in South Dakota and Minnesota until tomorrow morning. In Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Michigan Upper Peninsula freezing rain is also likely to develop due to rain changing over to snow as temperatures drop through the evening hours.

Showers and thunderstorms will persist along the leading edge of the frontal boundary through Friday evening and could become severe at times. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for portions of the Central Plains and Mississippi Valley through tomorrow morning. The threat for severe weather will continue throughout the period, with the primary region of concern tomorrow being an area extending from northeastern Oklahoma to southern Illinois, while northern Texas, central Oklahoma, southern Kansas, and southwestern Missouri will be at greatest risk on Friday. These thunderstorms will also have the potential to cause flash and urban flooding due to their slow motion and high rain rates. At present, a Marginal Risk for flooding has been issued for portions of Northern Wisconsin and the Michigan Upper Peninsula. The risk for flash flooding will be carried throughout the period as the system is expected to move very slowly through the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys tomorrow and subsequently stall over the Southern Plains on Friday.

Over the Southwest and Southern Plains persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by a passing cold front Wednesday evening, combined with high winds associated with the frontal passage and a tight pressure gradient nearby will create a critical risk of fire weather throughout the period. Portions of southeast New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle, northwest Oklahoma, southwest Kansas, and southeast Colorado will be at greatest risk for fire weather and currently have Red Flag Warnings in effect.

Elsewhere, short wave energy associated with a low pressure center positioned off the West Coast will provide the impetus for showers and thunderstorms along the coast and high elevation snow into tomorrow morning. Further inland, a second low pressure center will drive the development of snow throughout the Central Great Basin as well as the central and southern Rockies. The combination of these two low pressure centers into one system on Thursday afternoon will help prolong showers and thunderstorms in the Southwest and snow in the Intermountain West and central/southern Rockies into Friday. Over the eastern U.S. mild temperatures are expected on Thursday and Friday, with high temperatures across the region reaching into 60s and 70s. The greatest departures from normal will be felt over the Midwest and Northeast, where high temperatures will be on average 10 to 20 degrees warmer than normal.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Saturday March 13 2021 – Wednesday March 17 2021

Hazards:

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Central Plains and the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley, Sat-Sun, Mar 13-Mar 14.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Central/Southern Plains, the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and the Ohio Valley, Sat-Sun, Mar 13-Mar 14.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central/Southern Appalachians, the Tennessee/Ohio Valley and the Southeast, Mon-Tue, Mar 15-Mar 16.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Central Rockies, the Central/Northern Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley, Sat-Sun, Mar 13-Mar 14.

– Severe weather across portions of the Central/Southern Plains, Sat, Mar 13.

– Severe weather across portions of the Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, Sun, Mar 14.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, and the Upper Mississippi Valley.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Ohio Valley and the Tennessee Valley.

– Flooding likely across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley.

– High winds across portions of Coastal Alaska, Sat, Mar 13.

Detailed Summary:

The main area of concern during the medium range period (Saturday, March 13th – Wednesday, March 17th) will be across the central CONUS, where an upper-level low and quasi-stationary front are forecast to generate multiple sensible weather hazards. A winter storm is likely to begin over the Central Rockies late on Friday as the low-level wave develops on the lee-side of the Rockies. A well defined mid-latitude cyclone will form on Saturday and go on to produce strong winds and several inches of snow across the I-25 corridor from the Denver area up through southeastern Wyoming. Blowing snow will likely be an issue for this area. This heavy snow threat will continue into parts of Nebraska and South Dakota on Sunday as the system progresses eastward. Heavy precipitation is expected for northwestern Kansas into southeastern Nebraska and Iowa where rain early on will likely changeover to snow as cold air pours in on the backside of the system. Meanwhile, heavy rain and severe weather are expected over much of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley this weekend. Heavy rain may spread into the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians by Monday, but confidence on this isn’t particularly high. Another, less potent system will follow in behind the previous one and bring additional rainfall to the Southeast and Southern Appalachians leading to the potential for heavy rain on Tuesday.

Alaska will experience high winds along much of its west coast on Saturday as a potent area of low pressure tracks along Russia’s Bering coast toward St. Lawrence Island. The main hazard associated with this will be the potential for blowing snow along coastal areas. Moderate rain and snow will impact the southern coast and the panhandle through the beginning of the week, although model confidence isn’t high enough at the moment for a hazard area. This is subject to change in the coming days.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map (or maps) weekly (or more often when the situation is changing rapidly) but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

We also include drought information in this section.

More information can be found here.

March Drought Outlook..

Seasonal Outlook Issued February 18, 2021

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Tropical Events

I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

And the Eastern Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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