Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 4:24 PM EST) –

– A low pressure system will spread precipitation across the southwestern to south-central CONUS

– Elevated to Critical Risks of fire weather are in place for portions of the Southwest to Southern High Plains

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 221 PM EST Wed Mar 03 2021

Valid 00Z Thu Mar 04 2021 – 00Z Sat Mar 06 2021

…A low pressure system will spread precipitation across the southwestern to south-central CONUS…

…Elevated to Critical Risks of fire weather are in place for portions of the Southwest and Southern High Plains…

An area of low pressure will spread rain and snow showers across an area extending from the Southwest to the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight through Friday night. Increasing winds and dry conditions will contribute to an Elevated fire weather threat out ahead of the approaching system over much of Arizona tonight. Red Flag Warnings are in effect as well for this area. Snow is likely to spread over the Central/Southern Rockies as the system moves over the region tonight into Thursday. Between 4-8 inches of snow can be expected over the Central/Southern Rockies while some of Colorado’s peaks may receive higher amounts. The fire weather threat will shift into the New Mexico-Texas border area on Thursday in the form of a Critical Fire Weather area as winds pick up ahead of the approaching system and a dryline sets up somewhere over the region. Rain and scattered thunderstorms will spread over the Central/Southern Plains on Thursday, before sliding into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday as the low pressure system dives down into the Gulf Coast.

Meanwhile, light snow will continue over the Lower Great lakes through tomorrow, on the backside of a passing cold front. Temperatures will fall well below average over much of the Northeast and coastal Mid/Atlantic on the backside of this front. A stationary boundary draped across the Great Plains and surface ridging to the east will trap warm air over the Northern Plains for the next several days. A low pressure system will arrive over the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, bringing with it the chance for rain and mountain snow to the region and northern California.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Saturday March 06 2021 – Wednesday March 10 2021

Hazards:

– Heavy precipitation across portions of California and the Pacific Northwest, Mon-Tue, Mar 8-Mar 9.

– Heavy snow across portions of California, Mon-Wed, Mar 8-Mar 10.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Southeast.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Ohio Valley.

– Flooding likely across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and the Ohio Valley.

– Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska and the Alaskan Peninsula, Mon-Tue, Mar 8-Mar 9.

– High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun-Mon, Mar 7-Mar 8.

Detailed Summary:

During the medium range period (Saturday, March 6th – Wednesday, March 10th) much of the activity over the lower 48 will be isolated to the west of the Rockies where persistent upper-level troughing will set the stage for multiple rounds of precipitation, while ridging over the remainder of the CONUS will keep activity to a minimum. On Saturday, a moisture-rich cold front is expected to pass through California and the Great Basin, leaving a trail of light to moderate rain and high elevation snow in its wake. Dry and quiet conditions on Sunday will precede the arrival of a pair of low pressure/frontal systems that will bring a mix of heavy coastal rain and mountain snow to the northern California/Oregon border as well as the Sierra Nevada on Monday. Shortly after these systems progress further inland a shortwave is forecast to sweep through, prolonging the heavy precipitation near and along the coast into Tuesday and the heavy snow in the Sierra Nevada through Wednesday.

After passing through and bringing moderate snowfall to the Northern and Central Rockies on Tuesday, the two low pressure/frontal systems will coalesce into one and continue moving eastward into the Great Plains. Current model guidance is still too uncertain at this time to make any definitive comments about the potential hazards associated with this storm system, however, the guidance does indicate the potential for heavy precipitation to develop over the Northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Additionally, a tight pressure gradient surrounding this system may produce high winds and wind gusts from the base of the Rockies to the Mississippi Valley. Updates will be provided in the coming days as the guidance evolves and the details come into better focus.

Elsewhere, an upper-level trough working in tandem with a low pressure/frontal system at the surface is forecast to bring moderate rain to Florida’s Space Coast on Saturday. Current model guidance suggests 24 hour rainfall totals reaching or exceeding an inch will be possible in some isolated areas, but most, if not all, of the significant rainfall is expected to remain offshore.

For the entire length of the medium range period, minimum and maximum temperatures are forecast to sit 10 to 20 degrees above normal for the Northern/Central Plains, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and around the Upper Great Lakes. These temperature departures translate into highs that will reach the 50s and 60s, while lows will generally remain above freezing through Tuesday. This is particularity significant as states in the Upper Midwest still possess a snowpack and these high temperatures combined with a prolonged lack of re-freezing will lead to widespread, though gradual, snow melt. Along the East Coast both maximum and minimum temperatures are forecast to be slightly below normal throughout the weekend before moderating at the beginning of next week. Out West, temperatures are expected to remain close to average until Monday when maximum temperatures are set to take a marginal drop below normal.

In Alaska, a series of storm systems are expected pass through the Bering Sea, the stronger of which will occur at the beginning of the period. Tight pressure gradients associated with these strong systems are forecast to set up and generate hazardous wind gusts over the western mainland Sunday into Monday. While high winds are also possible along the Aleutians during the same time frame, they are not expected to reach hazardous levels. As the second of these systems propagates east towards the mainland, a wave of low pressure and its fronts are expected to pass through and bring heavy precipitation to the Southwestern and Southcentral mainland Monday into Tuesday. Above normal maximum and minimum temperatures are forecast to affect portions of the Far North and Southwestern mainland Sunday through Tuesday, with the highest temperatures expected to occur on Monday. Though warmer than usual, actual temperatures in the region will still remain well below or near freezing and are thus expected to be non-hazardous.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map (or maps) weekly (or more often when the situation is changing rapidly) but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

We also include drought information in this section.

More information can be found here.

March Drought Outlook..

Seasonal Outlook Issued February 18, 2021

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Tropical Events

I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

And the Eastern Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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