Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 3:36 PM and 7:33 PM EST) –

– Significant ice storm to develop over the Mid-Atlantic and the Central Appalachians

– A series of winter storms will result in widespread snowfall across the higher terrain and into the lowlands of Washington and Oregon through Saturday

– Bitter arctic air to remain entrenched across the central U.S. and continue expanding south

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 329 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021

Valid 00Z Fri Feb 12 2021 – 00Z Sun Feb 14 2021

…Significant ice storm to develop over the Mid-Atlantic and the Central Appalachians…

…A series of winter storms will result in widespread snowfall across the higher terrain and into the lowlands of Washington and Oregon through Saturday…

…Bitter arctic air to remain entrenched across the central U.S. and continue expanding south…

Bitterly cold air will engulf the Plains with temperatures 30 to 45 degrees below average. A quasi-stationary front will remain along the Gulf Coast and the Southeast through Saturday evening. Moist air will overrun the front and invade the cold air mass, aiding in snow development over parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio Valley. Simultaneously, areas of rain/freezing rain will develop over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Central Appalachians on Thursday evening into Friday evening. Rain with embedded thunderstorms will develop over the Southeast into parts of the Western Gulf Coast. On Friday evening into Saturday evening, rain/freezing rain will develop over parts of the Tennessee Valley and continuing over the Central Appalachians into the southern Mid-Atlantic. The freezing rain will lead to hazardous travel conditions, power outages, and scattered tree damage.

Meanwhile, the arctic air mass located over the Central U.S. will cover a widespread area from nearly the Great Plains to the Great Lakes. Wind Chill Advisories and Wind Chill Warnings remain in effect and stretch from much of the Northern Plains to the Midwest. The light wind combined with subzero temperatures could make it feel as cold as -50 degrees in some northern spots. This bitter cold can be dangerous and lead to frostbite in less than 10 minutes. Be sure to plan ahead and dress appropriately if spending time outdoors.

Impactful winter weather is also a possibility across the Pacific Northwest, lasting through Saturday. A low-pressure system is forecast to enter southern Oregon this evening while simultaneously interacting with very cold air draining into the region. This combination may lead to heavy snow across the typical mountainous locations but in the lowlands. Significant snowfall accumulation will be possible in both Portland and Seattle. Rain/freezing rain could be another threat in lower elevations of northwestern Oregon in particular. Snow and mixed precipitation are expected to spread across much of the Great Basin and into the Rockies as well. This snow will expand onto the Central Plains into parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley. Lake effect snow will impact most of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, while upper-level dynamics will contribute to snow developing across the rest of Michigan.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook

Valid Sunday February 14 2021 – Thursday February 18 2021

Hazards:

– Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic, Sun, Feb 14.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Pacific Northwest, Sun-Mon, Feb 14-Feb 15.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, Sun-Mon, Feb 14-Feb 15.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Central/Southern Rockies, Mon-Tue, Feb 14-Feb 16.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Northern/Central Great Basin and the Northern/Central Rockies, Sun-Tue, Feb 15-Feb 16.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Southwest, the Southern Rockies, the Central/Southern Plains, and the Middle Mississippi Valley, Sun, Feb 14.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Southern Plains, the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Ohio Valley, and the Great Lakes, Mon, Feb 15.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Great Lakes, the Central Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast, Tue, Feb 16.

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Southern Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Ohio Valley, the Southern/Central Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast, Mon-Tue, Feb 15-Feb 16.

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Southern/Central Appalachians, the Ohio Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Great Lakes, and the Northeast, Wed-Thu, Feb 17-Feb 18.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, the Southern Appalachians, and the Mid-Atlantic, Thu, Feb 18.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Great Basin, and the Northern Rockies, Sun, Feb 14.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Northern/Central/Southern Rockies, the Northern/Central/Southern Plains, the Upper/Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, and the Tennessee Valley, Sun-Thu, Feb 14-Feb 18.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Sun, Feb 14.

Detailed Summary:

During the medium range period (Sunday, February 14th – Thursday, February 18th) upper-level troughing over the central U.S. will act as a double whammy for the CONUS with respect to frigid temperatures and very active weather all across the country. On Sunday, a stationary frontal boundary straddling the Florida/Georgia border is expected to produce thunderstorms and heavy rain throughout the Southeast, with some areas possibly receiving up to 2 inches of rain over the course of 24 hours. On the other side of the country, a cold front passing through the Pacific Northwest on Sunday immediately followed by a moisture rich low pressure/frontal system moving onshore Monday will serve as the impetus for heavy snowfall in the Cascade and Olympic Mountains as well as heavy rain along coastal northern California and southern Oregon. The low pressure/frontal system is forecast to move southeast through the western terrain Monday into Tuesday, leaving a trail of snow in its wake. Higher elevation mountain ranges throughout the Great Basin and Rockies, extending from the Blue Mountains in the north to the San Juan Mountains in the south, will likely receive the heaviest snowfall.

Shifting focus inland, a major winter storm is forecast to develop over the Southern Plains Sunday into Monday. With frigid temperatures permeating much of middle America, the stage is set for snow, sleet, and freezing rain to accompany the system. The heaviest snowfall will likely occur in eastern New Mexico, northern Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas, while the greatest threat for freezing rain-laced mixed precipitation lies in central Texas, northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas. As upper-level shortwave energy guides the storm to the north and east Monday into Tuesday, the greatest heavy snow threat will shift to the Middle Mississippi River Valley, Ohio River Valley, and the lower Great Lakes, while the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys will carry the highest risk for icy conditions. Before exiting the CONUS, the storm system will give one final push on Tuesday, likely bringing heavy snow to the Central Appalachians and Northeast and inundating the I-95 corridor with mixed precipitation. Though only a few days out, forecast uncertainty still remains in regards to the exact path of the storm track as well as the location of the rain/snow line and heaviest snowfall. Even a small shift in the storm track can produce significant changes, however, the fact still remains that this multi-day storm will affect a large portion of the country and produce significant hazards that have the potential to impact travel, produce power outages, and threaten personal safety.

As if one far reaching storm system in the medium range wasn’t enough, a second system is expected to develop on Wednesday, following an almost identical track to the first. As two low pressure/frontal systems coalesce into one over Texas, shortwave energy over the Southern Plains and a warm front moving towards the Southeast are forecast to begin producing snow and rain, respectively. Guided by another upper-level shortwave, the newly formed low pressure/frontal system will propagate to the northeast Wednesday into Thursday, bringing snow, mixed precipitation and rain to the same areas hit a few days prior. While the models are currently in general agreement that the heaviest rain will likely fall over the Southeast on Thursday, there is still enough of a disparity in the storm track in the guidance that areas of snow and mixed precipitation cannot yet be determined. Therefore, the remaining area impacted by this second system is marked as heavy precipitation. As with the first storm, this system will also carry the potential to produce significant hazards and will continue to be watched over the coming days.

Throughout the period, high pressure at the surface will continue its reign of bitter cold temperatures over the central U.S. While the Northern Great Basin will feel some relief after Sunday, temperatures well below normal will keep their grip over the Plains and Mississippi Valley. A final blast of cold air will begin a southward trek on Sunday, starting in the Northern Plains where low temperatures will hover in the negative 20s, up to 40 degrees below normal. On Monday and Tuesday, anomalously cold air is expected to settle in the Central and Southern Plains and break over 40 daily low record temperatures, as low temperatures dip to between 30 and 40 degrees below normal. By the end of the week, temperatures are expected to become more moderate throughout the central U.S., with daily low temperatures in most places reaching above zero and plateauing at approximately 10 to 20 degrees below normal. These widespread anomalously low temperatures can pose a threat to health and safety and should be taken seriously in all affected locations, particularly in the North/Central Plains and Mississippi Valley where low temperatures in the negative teens and 20s could cause frostbite on exposed areas of skin in a matter of minutes.

Over Alaska, a series of deep low pressure/frontal systems are forecast to pass over the Aleutians early in the week, bringing some moderate rain to the region. Towards the end of the week, weaker systems will make their way through the Gulf of Alaska to the Mainland and Panhandle. While each of these regions will receive rainfall throughout the medium range period, none of it is expected to reach hazardous levels. On Sunday, a high pressure system positioned on the border of the Yukon and British Columbia will push cold arctic air into the Panhandle, dropping low temperatures well below freezing and up to 20 degrees below normal. Below normal low temperatures will also persist in the eastern Interior Sunday through Tuesday, however, these are not anticipated to be hazardous.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

We also include drought information in this section.

New February Drought Outlook

Seasonal Outlook Issued January 21, 2021

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Tropical Events

I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

And the Eastern Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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