Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 5:10 PM EST) –

– Light to moderate snow to blanket parts of the Northeast and southern New England through Wednesday morning

– Excessive heavy lower elevation rain to bring dangerous flash flood risk to coastal California tonight and into Wednesday

– Extreme snowfall amounts expected across the Sierra Nevada through Thursday

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

Please share this article – Go to the very top of the page, right-hand side for social media buttons. Also, feel free to send this email to anyone you feel will benefit from it.

For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

Directory

CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 157 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

Valid 00Z Wed Jan 27 2021 – 00Z Fri Jan 29 2021

…Light to moderate snow to blanket parts of the Northeast and southern New England through Wednesday morning…

…Excessive heavy lower elevation rain to bring dangerous flash flood risk to coastal California tonight and into Wednesday…

…Extreme snowfall amounts expected across the Sierra Nevada through Thursday…

Two systems are currently tracking across the central and eastern United States, while producing minor winter weather impacts. The first is currently located over the Lower Great Lakes and is responsible for widespread light-to-moderate snowfall from Lower Michigan to southern New England. Snow showers will be slow to exit the area and could linger through Wednesday morning. A general 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts can be expected. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the area. The second system is currently pushing across the central Rockies and is expected to race across the central Plains, Tennessee Valley, and reach the southern Appalachians by Wednesday. Light snowfall can be expected over these regions, with local amounts up to 6 inches over the southern Appalachians. Snow could mix with rain through the southern Mid-Atlantic early on Thursday as the area of low pressure strengthens and continues to dash eastward into the Atlantic.

Meanwhile, a strong frontal system will push onshore California by tonight and will usher in gusty winds, heavy rain for coastal and lower elevation areas, and mountain snow throughout the day on Wednesday. Snow levels across northern California are forecast to start as low as 500 to 2500 feet, before slowly rising Wednesday. Higher up in elevation, whiteout conditions due to extremely heavy snowfall rates are possible across the Sierra Nevada. Several feet of snow (as much as 10 feet) will add up through Thursday night, with road closures and travel delays very likely. Winter Storm Warnings and Blizzard Warnings have been issued for this area. At the same time, several inches of rainfall are expected across parts of central and southern California, WPC has identified a Moderate Risk area for excessive rainfall and debris flows from nearby burn scars on Wednesday. A Flash Flood Watch has been posted as well. Over the next three days, as much as 10 to 15 inches of rain could fall along the central California coast roughly between Monterey and Santa Barbara. This amount of rain in a 72-hour period is very rare for this region, with an annual exceedance probability of only 2 percent.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD, 427 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

Valid Friday January 29 2021 – Tuesday February 02 2021

Hazards:

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Sun-Tue, Jan 31-Feb 2.

– Heavy rain across portions of California and the Pacific Northwest, Sun-Tue, Jan 31-Feb 2.

– Heavy rain across portions of California and the Pacific Northwest, Sat-Mon, Jan 30-Feb 1.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Southern Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Fri-Sat, Jan 29-Jan 30.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Sun-Mon, Jan 31-Feb 1.

– Heavy snow across portions of California, the Pacific Northwest, and the Northern Great Basin, Sat-Mon, Jan 30-Feb 1.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Central Great Basin, California, and the Southwest, Sat-Tue,
Jan 30-Feb 2.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Rockies, the Northern Great Basin, and the Southwest, Fri, Jan 29.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Sat-Sun, Jan 30-Jan 31.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Northeast, the Central Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Sun-Tue, Jan 31-Feb 2.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, the Northeast, and the Great Lakes, Fri-Sat, Jan 29-Jan 30.

Detailed Summary:

Hazards during the medium range period will be most prominently featured on the West Coast and extending from the Midwest to the Northeast. Starting out west, the storm system responsible for the copious amounts of rain and mountain snow across California heads east across the Southwest on Friday. Some lingering heavy rain may be possible in the low lying areas of Southern California early in the day, but areas of rain and mountain snow are a welcomed sight in the drought-stricken Southwest. In fact, heavy snowfall is also possible in parts of northern Arizona, southern Utah, and as far north as the Tetons of western Wyoming. Meanwhile, an elongated frontal system stemming from a potent area of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska will introduce the next round of precipitation to the Northwest this weekend. As the frontal structure begins to lose its punch, a new shortwave trough diving south through the northeast Pacific looks to reinvigorate the lingering baroclinic boundary off the coast. This leads to another surge of warm air advection ahead of the deepening trough and taps into sub-tropical moisture in the East Pacific. The result is another round of heavy precipitation with additional coastal/valley rainfall and higher elevation snowfall from the Pacific Northwest at the end of the month to northern and central California for the start of February. Given recent heavy rainfall in these areas, there is the potential for additional flooding and landslides, along with plenty of mountain snow from the Cascades to the Sierra Nevada.

Farther east, a highly anomalous upper trough (-2 to -2.5 STDs) deepens off the New England coast on Friday, forcing a fresh injection of frigid Canadian air to infiltrate the Northeast. Temperatures are forecast to plum struggle to get out of the single digits for highs Friday afternoon. The cold temperatures persist into Saturday, as will bitterly cold wind chills that are currently forecast to range between -10 to -25 degrees. Daily temperature anomalies of 12 to 20 degrees below normal are anticipated both Friday and Saturday, which combined with the icy cold wind chills have led to the issuance of a much below normal temperature area. As high pressure settles in across southeast Canada and the Northeast this weekend, the Southwest storm system ejects into the southern Plains. The storm system taps into Gulf moisture and directs it into the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley on Saturday where heavy rain is likely to occur. Meanwhile, the slug of warm/moist air overruns a column of sub-freezing air aloft, leading to a broad area of moderate-to-heavy snow across portions of the Midwest and lower Great Lakes. Model guidance remains at odds over where the axis of heavy snow lines up (GFS/GEFS farther north, Euro/EC mean farther south for example) but both models indicate sufficient moisture and cold air to produce a swath of heavy snow.

By Sunday, general model consensus is for a deepening upper trough to move east into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys while height rises begin to manifest over the Intermountain West. Downstream, a large upper low southeast of Nova Scotia and an upper level ridge over lower Hudson Bay and northern Quebec induce an area of confluent flow over the Northeast and southeast Canada. The GEFS mean shows a more progressive storm track with the mid-level low aloft passing over the northern Mid-Atlantic on Monday. In contrast, the Euro ENS is slower and more amplified with a more southerly tracking mid-level low heading for the Chesapeake Bay late Monday. The Canadian ENS is slightly less amplified than the GEFS and also on the progressive side. The reasons for these differences vary wildly: from how they handle the speed/phasing of a trailing upper level disturbance coming out of south-central Canada, to the trength/position of the ridge near Hudson Bay, and the amplitude/placement of the ridge/(trough) in the Southwest/(northwest Atlantic). With that said, the signal from ensemble guidance indicates a potent upper level trough approaches the Northeast with a wedge of cold temperatures entrenched from New England southward into the southern Mid-Atlantic. The amplification of this trough as it reaches the East Coast suggests the growing potential for heavy snow and/or ice from the Mid-Atlantic to New England, but the aforementioned unresolved atmospheric features 5-7 days out keeps both confidence in the storm track and resulting impacts low at this time. There is also a chance for heavy rain and thunderstorms over southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina late in the period.

Over Alaska, a strong low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska makes for a damp and dreary forecast for parts of the Panhandle and along the immediate southern Gulf coast. As the low heads southeast this weekend, an axis of upper level ridging over the Aleutians heads east towards the upper peninsula. Meanwhile, an upper low over northern Alaska will funnel below normal temperatures into western regions this weekend and into the start of next week. While temperatures appear to be quite cold, expected anomalies are forecast to fall just shy of much below normal criteria. As a large cyclone in the northwest Pacific approaches early next week, an influx of Pacific moisture may be directed at southern Alaska but plenty of spread in model guidance remains, making the potential hazards too low of confidence to include at this time.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

We also include drought information in this section.

New December Drought Outlook

Seasonal Outlook Issued November 19, 2020

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Tropical Events

I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

And the Eastern Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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