Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 3:59 PM and 5:50 PM EST) –

– A developing winter storm is expected to bring blizzard conditions across parts of the Upper Midwest into Friday

– Heavy rain could impact parts of New England on Saturday while wet snow should fall well inland

– High Wind Warnings across much of the northern and central Plains

– Elevated to Critical fire weather threat over southern California as well as parts of the central and southern Plains

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD – 313 PM EST Thu Jan 14 2021

Valid 00Z Fri Jan 15 2021 – 00Z Sun Jan 17 2021

…A developing winter storm is expected to bring blizzard conditions across parts of the Upper Midwest into Friday…

…Heavy rain could impact parts of New England on Saturday while wet snow should fall well inland…

…High Wind Warnings across much of the northern and central Plains…

…Elevated to Critical fire weather threat over southern California as well as parts of the central and southern Plains…

A developing low pressure system over the north-central U.S. will be the main weather story for the next couple of days. Blizzard warnings are in effect for parts of the upper Midwest to the northern Plains in anticipation of increasingly strong and gusty winds together with periods of moderate to heavy snow developing to the west of the intensifying system. This system is expected to remain stationary over the region through Friday, bringing widespread 6 to 12 inches of snow across the warned area. In addition, the tight pressure gradient behind the system will result in a large area of strong to gale force winds over the northern and central Plains into Friday morning, where High Wind Warnings are in effect. Lighter amounts of snowfall is forecast farther to the east as the low pressure system begins to weaken and move into the Great Lakes. However, much of the Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, along the western slopes of the Appalachians, and the interior Northeast will see measurable snowfall from this system.

On Saturday, a new low pressure center forming along the trailing cold front near the northern Mid-Atlantic coast is expected to spread moderate to heavy rain near the New England coast and the rain could spread farther inland. By Saturday night into Sunday, any mixed precipitation well inland should change back to wet snow as the low pressure system moves up into northern New England. Rain is expected along the Eastern Seaboard on Friday ahead of the cold front.

Well above normal temperatures are expected across the Northern Tier states and the Northeast into the weekend ahead of the low pressure system. Meanwhile, temperatures will be 15-20 degrees above average across much of California, Nevada and Arizona through Friday. Southern California may see widespread high temperature records broken on Friday. As a result of that and drier/windier conditions, the threat of fires will be at elevated to critical levels across parts of southwestern California into the weekend. In addition, a tight pressure gradient over the Plains will sustain strong winds and elevate the fire risk over parts of central to southern Plains.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 20 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Sunday January 17 2021 – Thursday January 21 2021

Hazards:

– Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, the Southern Appalachians, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Tennessee Valley, Tue-Thu, Jan 19-Jan 21.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Sun, Jan 17.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Southern Rockies, the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, and the Southwest, Tue, Jan 19.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Plains, the Central Rockies, the Northern Rockies, and the Southern Rockies, Mon, Jan 18.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast and the Pacific Northwest.

– High winds across portions of the Central Great Basin, California, and the Southwest, Mon-Tue, Jan 18-Jan 19.

– High winds across portions of the Central Rockies, and the Northern/Central Plains, Wed, Jan 20.

– Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of California, Mon, Jan 18.

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sun-Mon, Jan 17-Jan 18.

– High winds across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Mon, Jan 18.

Detailed Summary:

A Front and associated upper-level energy will move into the Northwest on Sunday and move southward to the Southwest to Southern High Plains on Monday and into Northern Mexico by Tuesday. The system will help produce snow over parts of the Northern Cascades and parts of the Northern Rockies, including the Bitterroot Mountain Range on Sunday with Heavy Snow depicted on the Hazards Chart. As the system moves southward, snow will develop over parts of the Absaroka Mountain Range, the Black Hills, and the Central Rockies on Monday. As the storm settles south of the border, snow will also develop over the Mogollon Rim into the Southern Rockies and the San Juan Mountains in Colorado on Tuesday. These areas will be marked as Heavy Snow on the Hazards Chart. The pressure gradient, associated with the system, over parts of the Southwest and Southern California will be strong. The wind will be very gusty over this region, with wind gust of 45 mph or greater. The strong wind will also contribute to dangerous fire weather conditions on Monday. An area of High Winds is depicted on the Hazards Chart on Monday and Tuesday. The system will be quasi-stationary across the Western/Central Gulf Coast through Thursday. Moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will stream northward over the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley that will overrun the boundary producing Heavy Rain on Tuesday into Thursday.

Meanwhile, a storm over the Gulf of Alaska will move eastward into Western Canada, moving to Central Canada by Wednesday. The system will be relatively deep, producing a strong pressure gradient over the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains on Wednesday. The pressure gradient will produce a wind speed of 45 mph or greater. An area of High Winds is displayed on the Hazards Map, valid for Wednesday. Additionally, non-hazardous above normal temperature anomalies for both maximum and minimum temperatures will be present all around the CONUS throughout the period.

Over Alaska, a deep area of low pressure over the Alaska Peninsula will slowly move eastward into Canada by Tuesday. The system will have a plume of moisture that will stream into the Gulf of Alaska Coast, producing rain and snow over the region into Tuesday. An area of Heavy Precipitation is portrayed on the Hazards Chart on Sunday into Monday. High Winds is depicted on the map along the coast from near Valdez to near Yakutat on Monday.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

We also include drought information in this section.

New December Drought Outlook

Seasonal Outlook Issued November 19, 2020

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Tropical Events

I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

And the Eastern Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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