It has been a successful crop year with now a successful harvest. Some crops that got off to a slow start have caught up and are doing as well as, or even a bit better than, the five-year average. It is actually hard to explain. We included some recent NASS Reports and a report on this year’s Atlantic Hurricane Season which is not yet officially over. So there could yet be one more. We have included a brief International Report and the Intermediate-term Weather Forecast.
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Record-Breaking Atlantic Hurricane Season Draws to an End. Read the full article here.
Some might enjoy this animation.
The strong Easterlies associated with a La Nina probably had an effect but this seems to be a trend.
Rumors that we would run out of names were premature.
Miscellaneous NASS Reports
The red line is this year. The blue line is last year.
The ante-mortem and post-mortem condemnations may be enough for us to resume raising chickens.
Reading these reports can be very informative. How can 63,000 cattle disappear?
These are recent reports but they cover October data. It seems that fake meat has not replaced the real thing yet.
Here is the weekly U.S. Crop Progress Report.
The above is a very good summary of the situation. Below it is broken down in more detail state by state.
Crop
Progress
Condition
Cotton
Now better than 5-Year Ave.
NA
Sorghum
Better than 5-Year Ave
NA
Peanuts
Caught up to the 5-Year Ave
NA
Winter Wheat
Better than 5-Year Ave
Just OK
Sunflowers
Much better than last year and very much better than 5-Year Ave.
NA
It was a pretty good week for fieldwork with only Idaho and Montana and Vermont in the yellow category.
Soil Moisture
Some improvement this week.
We have been paying attention to soils that are two dry but with the recent tropical storms, we now need to also pay attention to soils that are too wet.
It is now only three states that have soil surplus water but if they are in harvest time that is a problem for them. Many states have dry soil which apparently did impact crops this year. It is quite remarkable really.
If it gets cold, there is not much snow cover for winter wheat. There is not much snow to interfere with harvesting.
Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast
We are including the forecast because of concern about freezing temperatures along the Northern Tier. That could be a problem.
Showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).
First Temperature
And then Precipitation
It doesn’t look like the weather will interfere with harvesting. It does not look too bad for winter wheat. Although people are talking up oil and gas prices, it does not look like the weather will be favorable for that beyond the next two weeks.
International
This week we have a map.
It is a mixed picture this week. Southeast Asia is too wet and Northwest Africa is too dry.
Major Sources of Information
In the box are shown the major resources we use. We will not be using them all each week but the reader is welcome to refer to these resources.
Major Sources of Information Used in this Weekly Report
The U.S. Drought Monitor (the full report can be accessed here)
Selected graphics from our other Weather and Climate Reports are repeated in this report. These reports can be accessed by referencing the Directory here
Selections from the Tuesday USD Weather and Crop Bulletin (the full report can be accessed here). Selections from the USDA Office of the Chief Economist can be found here. NASS Executive Briefings can be found here. A wide range of NASS Reports can be found here. USDA Foreign Agriculture Service Briefs can be found here. Other useful sources of information that I regularly utilize are the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) which can be accessed here and the USDA NRCS Weekly and Weather Climate Update which can be accessed here. A glossary of terms can be found here.
