Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 8:30 pm EDT) –

– Widespread snowfall across the central Rockies and central Plains today heads south into the central/southern Rockies, then turns into an ice storm for the southern High Plains on Monday and early Tuesday

– Record cold temperatures continue to engulf the Rockies and the Plains over the next couple days

– Critical to extreme fire risks and high wind threat over portions of California; elevated to critical over the southern Rockies and Southwest

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

Directory

CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD – 301 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 26 2020 – 00Z Wed Oct 28 2020

…Widespread snowfall across the central Rockies and central Plains today heads south into the central/southern Rockies, then turn into an ice storm for the southern High Plains on Monday and early Tuesday…

…Record cold temperatures continue to engulf the Rockies and the Plains over the next couple days...

…Critical to extreme fire risks and high wind threat over portions of California; elevated to critical over the southern Rockies and Southwest...

The early season major winter storm in the Rockies and central Plains continues its march southward, producing moderate to heavy snow this evening. More than a foot of snow with gusty winds and plummeting temperatures is forecast for the higher terrain across the central Rockies while a wide swath of 6+ inches of snow is expected through much of the central to southern High Plains. Lighter amounts (yet still potentially hazardous) of snow and wintry mix also extend all the way into the upper Midwest. Temperatures will fall to record levels from the interior western U.S. to a large portion of the Great Plains for the next couple of days due to this early season Arctic blast. Much of the northern and central Rockies are forecast to witness sub-zero temperatures Monday morning. In addition, strong winds behind the Arctic front will cause blowing and drifting of snow with blizzard conditions possible in the windiest locations. Even high temperatures are not expected to warm much at all with high temperatures in the teens for some. Bitterly cold wind chills ranging between -10 and -20 are also expected in portions of the northern Rockies and northern Plains. West Texas in particular can anticipate a form of temperature whiplash as highs today approach 90 degrees, only to struggle to reach freezing for highs on Tuesday. These jarringly colder temperatures infiltrating the southern Plains combined with the upper low over the lower Four Corners region lays the ground work for a potential ice storm from central Kansas and Oklahoma into west Texas Monday night into Tuesday. Expect treacherous travel conditions to transpire in these areas this first half of the week.

Farther west, dry air and gusty winds associated with the large and highly anomalous arctic high pressure system are expected to trigger strong winds that promote extreme fire weather conditions for parts of northern California. Monday features a prime setup for strong winds and low humidity levels throughout much of the Golden State with Santa Ana winds prompting the issuance of an Extreme Risk for fire weather along the Transverse range of southern California. Winds are forecast to be strong enough to result in some downed trees and power outages. Wind advisories have been issued for the entire Bay Area and High Wind Warnings along the higher elevations of southern California. Farther east, elevated fire risks are also in place over the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest with many wind advisories also in place in these areas.

Elsewhere, drier conditions should return to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Monday with warmer temperatures stationed in the Southeast. However, some tropical downpours and thunderstorms are expected to continue over southern Florida into Monday as Tropical Storm Zeta churns up the waters of the western Caribbean Sea. Residents along the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the latest forecasts for Zeta from the National Hurricane Center into the upcoming week.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 20 hour animation and some other views can be found here OR SIMPLY CLICK ON THE IMAGE.

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Monday October 26 2020 – Friday October 30 2020

Hazards:

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Southern Rockies, the Central Plains, and the Southern Plains, Mon-Wed, Oct 26-Oct 28.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Mon, Oct 26.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, and the Southern Plains, Wed-Thu, Oct 28-Oct 29.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Appalachians, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, and the Ohio Valley, Thu-Fri, Oct 29-Oct 30.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Southern Rockies, the Southern Plains, and the Southwest, Mon-Tue, Oct 26-Oct 27.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Southwest, Mon, Oct 26.

– High winds across portions of California, Mon, Oct 26.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Great Lakes, the Northern Rockies, the Southern Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Northern Great Basin, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Southwest, Mon-Thu, Oct 26-Oct 29.

– Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of California, Mon, Oct 26.

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Mon, Oct 26.

Detailed Summary:

A dome of Arctic high pressure encompassing much of the Northwest, the Rockies, and Plains will lead to very cold conditions across these regions through mid-week. Latest NDFD forecast suggests numerous daily record cold max/min temperatures are likely to be broken. Sub-zero temperatures are a good bet across the northern Rockies and High Plains Monday morning where bitterly cold wind chills of -10 to -20 degrees are also possible. The coldest temperatures are likely to occur where fresh and deep snow pack is present. Speaking of which, a late October snow storm looks to blanket much of the mountainous terrain of the Four Corners region (including some low lying valleys) in snow with the higher elevations most at risk for significant snow accumulations. Expect numerous travel delays in these areas which combined with gusty winds may lead to near whiteout conditions Sunday and into Monday.

How long the snow threat lasts in the Four Corners region is dependent upon what happens when the jet stream pattern lifts north and how influential an intense ridge builds over the Northwest. A cut-off upper low will develop and keep mountain snow and inclement weather in the forecast through mid-week. A heavy precipitation area remains in place over parts of the southern High Plains and as confidence is increasing in a combination of heavy snow and/or ice. Free-falling temperatures near or breaking record cold levels for late October combined with over-running southwest flow aloft looks to support a heavy wintry mix across eastern New Mexico, western and central Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle. On the southeast flank of the upper-low, heavy showers and thunderstorms could cause excessive rainfall rates in portions of northern and central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday. Farther west in California, as the base of the trough swings through the Great Basin Sunday night, intense low-mid level winds embedded within the base and the backside of the upper trough pass over the region. A strong surface high pressure diving south over the Northwest along with a surface trough off the California coast, high winds will develop in the northern Sierra Nevada and potential for downsloping winds in the Sacramento Valley and Bay Area. Southern California is also at risk for strong winds and favorable fire weather conditions. As a result, High Winds and Fire Weather hazards are in place in these areas.

In the East, upper level ridging over the Southeast is likely to keep most of the region under the influence of a persistent above normal temperature regime. Some rain and mountain snow is possible in across northern New England on Monday, but the primary precipitation type ahead of an approaching cold front from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic. As the upper low in the Southwest gradually advances east into the South Central U.S. around mid-week, rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico should stream north from Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Mid-South and Mid-Atlantic the second half of the week. In fact, moisture from a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea (NHC gives a 70% chance of development over the next 48 hours) may become incorporated into the moist southerly flow, adding even more moisture to an already wet pattern. Timing and totals are still subject to change in the days 5-7 time frame due to the lower confidence in when the upper trough exits the Four Corners region and how slowly it progresses through the southern Plains.

Across Alaska, an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska heads toward the southeast mainland and be preceded by a southwesterly flow of very moist Pacific air. Expect heavy precipitation from southeastern portions of the mainland (Prince William Sound eastward) through Yakutat starting on Monday. Some heavy rainfall may linger in portions of the lower Panhandle early Tuesday before drier conditions arrive throughout the region later in the day. Heaviest rainfall will generally be along the coast with snow over higher elevations. A second round of heavy precipitation is possible across the Panhandle towards mid-late week but ensemble guidance suggests a good amount of uncertainty presides in the pattern from Alaska to the North Pacific.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. (We may be a tad premature but not by much). It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

We also include drought information in this section.

New Seasonal Outlook Issued October 15, 2020

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Tropical Events

I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size and when available add other related maps.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

And the Eastern Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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