Written by Sig Silber
Tonight we present the September 11, 2020, NASS Crop Executive Briefing as well as the current Crop Progress and Condition Report. The Executive Briefing provides a lot of detail both historically and for the current crop season. Crops do not look quite as rosy in the Executive Briefing as in the weekly Crop Progress and Condition Report. The reason for that is the weekly report compares the current situation, last year, and the 5-year average. The Executive Briefing for the major crops shows the data for each of the last five years which gives a finer level of comparison than does the 5-year average. That is why I publish the Executive Briefings when I can. Last week we looked at the State Temperature and Precipitation Rankings for August. This week we look at the State Rankings for the three-month period June-July-August.
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Here is the recent NASS Executive Briefing.
They are telling us something. Hopefully, the weekly crop production report which will follow this Executive Briefing will clarify things somewhat. After looking at this weeks results, I do not see major changes.
What is a derecho? See the description below and click here for more information from the NWS.
A derecho (pronounced similar to “deh-REY-cho”) is a widespread, long-lived wind storm that is associated with a band of rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms. Although a derecho can produce destruction similar to the strength of tornadoes, the damage typically is directed in one direction along a relatively straight swath. As a result, the term “straight-line wind damage” sometimes is used to describe derecho damage. By definition, if the wind damage swath extends more than 240 miles (about 400 kilometers) and includes wind gusts of at least 58 mph (93 km/h) or greater along most of its length, then the event may be classified as a derecho.
Notice a decline in crop condition from 2017 until now.
Percent Dented is in the middle of the range but above the five-year average as we have been reporting.
The forecast is up from last year but there may have been an even larger earlier forecast. Acres planted is up which probably relates to some extent to the weather last year.
That looks like a new record if it holds.
You can see where the corn yield had increased and where it has declined.
Satellite data used to model yield.
This is a little confusing as it seems to not be totally consistent with other graphics shown. But you need to look at the bar graph which shows ears per acre and the red dots that show the bushels per acre.
The current forecast for the total production is just under the production in 2016. Remember it is a forecast.
There was an August set of estimates. They are all down now and NASS is in the middle of the pack.
We see a similar pattern with soybeans as with corn. There is a decline since last month but soybeans remain in the middle or above of the five-year average and a lot better than last year.
Slower that some other years but 2017 lowers the five-year average. That is why we look at the Executive Briefing, not just the weekly Progress Reports.
A slight decline from earlier estimate but way above last year.
Close to record yield based on the current forecast.
This shows the states where the yield improved and declined.
And this is the model prediction of yield.
Note that two things are shown on this slide. the pod density is shown by the vertical bars and the yield by the red dots.
The forecast is an improvement from last year but not up to 2017 and 2028 and it is forecast and an early one.
The forecast has tightened up. Nass was higher than everyone else last month and this joined the pack now.
2020 is not the worst for cotton but clearly below average re condition. I am not sure why. This article
click to read my provide some insight.
Middle of the pack.
Lots of red in this table. But the yield looks to be up over last year but the acres planted is way down.
Cotton seems to fluctuate a lot probably due to prices.
Yield has a strong upward trend but it is probably the same for other nations also.
This shows where the yield decline and where it rose. I is just a one month change. I have a hard time correlating it with the weather.
No real trend here.
Some field crops. It is a mixed bad.
Some more crops.
And some more.
Upcoming Reports.
And here is where you can get more information.
Now let us look at the USDA week;y Crop Progress Report.
Generally speaking, the weather cooperated with respect to fieldwork.
Compared to last week, the fieldwork situation was not as good. You can see a lot more yellow and one tan state.
| Last Week | This Week |
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| The above is a very good summary of the situation. Below it is broken down in more detail state by state. |
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| Crop | Progress | Condition | | Corn | Better than 5-Year Ave. | OK | | Soybean | Better than 5-Year Ave | Good | | Cotton | Equal to 5-Year Ave | OK | | Sorghum | Equal to 5-Year Ave | Not Great | | Peanuts | To early to tell | Good | | Winter Wheat | Early but looking good | To soon to tell | | Rice | Slow | OK | | Spring Wheat | Equal to 5-Year Ave | NA | | Barley | Equal to 5-Year Ave | | | Pasture and Range | | Poor |
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Last week we looked at August state rankings. Now we look at the three month period June through August 2020
Three states set a heat record, Arizona, and many states were much above average.
Looking at the maximum rather than average temperature, one state set a record, and two states were below average.
With regards to the minimum temperature, six states set a record for the highest minimum temperature in the 126 year history for this three month period.
One state, Arizona set a record for dryness and New Mexico was second driest in the 126 Year Period. Two states were much above average.
Sometimes it is useful to look at climate divisions.
This clarifies where is was record dry and also where it was much above average.
