Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 5:44 om EDT) –

“…Tropical Depression Eight to produce heavy rainfall for parts of the Gulf Coast this weekend, Tropical Storm Watches issued for the Texas Coast… … Heavy Rainfall possible for parts of the Southwest, Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic while Severe thunderstorms may impact the Northern Rockies/Plains and Northeast… … Monsoon showers and storms over parts of Arizona and New Mexico, cooler temperatures to return to the West, there is a critical risk of wildfires over parts of the Great Basin…”

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

Please share this article – Go to the very top of the page, right-hand side for social media buttons. Also, feel free to send this email to anyone you feel will benefit from it

Directory

CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 404 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020

Valid 00Z Fri Jul 24 2020 – 00Z Sun Jul 26 2020

…Tropical Depression Eight to produce heavy rainfall for parts of the Gulf Coast this weekend, Tropical Storm Watches issued for the Texas Coast…

…Heavy Rainfall possible for parts of the Southwest, Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic while Severe thunderstorms may impact the Northern Rockies/Plains and Northeast…

…Monsoon showers and storms over parts of Arizona and New Mexico, cooler temperatures to return to the West, there is a critical risk of wildfires over parts of the Great Basin…

The main concern for this weekend will be the threat of heavy rainfall and wind posed by Tropical Depression Eight. The tropical depression currently circulating in the Gulf is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm tomorrow before beginning its approach toward the Texas coast. Most of the current precip associated with the Depression is focused over the central Gulf coast. Localized heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding with up to 2 inches possible tonight through tomorrow (Friday). Rainfall rates will pick up on Saturday as the storm makes landfall along the south Texas coast. Over an inch and a half of rain is expected for parts of the Texas coast through Saturday. For more information, visit the National Hurricane Center’s website at nhc.noaa.gov.

Heavy rainfall will also occur over the Northern Plains tonight through Saturday ahead of a pair of low pressure systems emerging from the Rockies. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall area was issued for parts of the Upper Midwest on Saturday as the systems appraoch the region. A Slight Risk of Severe Weather was issued as ongoing thunderstorms may continue over the Northern Rockies/Plains tonight through Saturday morning. Another slight risk area is in place over much of the Northeast tonight, ahead of a cold front which continues to spur scattered convection across the region as it glides toward the Atlantic. Above average temperatures are expected to continue from the Northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes tonight through Saturday. Night time temperatures will be particularly warm as lows are expected to bottom out in just the low to mid-70s, which may be up to 20 degrees above average for that area.

Heavy rainfall is not only expected to occur along the Gulf Coast, as several other regions are at risk for excessive rainfall and severe storms. Thursday’s most at-risk areas for severe weather are in the Northeast and northern High Plains where Slight risks for severe storms are present. Portions of the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians are under a Slight Risk for flash flooding as more strong-to-severe thunderstorms roll through the region. Severe weather is also in the cards across the Northern Plains with intense thunderstorms likely to traverse the Northern Plains both today and Friday. In addition to the severe weather potential, stifling heat will continue across the North-Central U.S. with high temps in the mid-upper 90s.

In the southwest, monsoonal moisture will become a fixture in the forecast as we progress into the weekend over the Four Corners region. Rainfall rates may be heavy at times tonight and Friday with excessive rainfall a cause for concern in parts of Arizona and New Mexico, resulting in the issuance of a Slight Risk for flash flooding in these states. Otherwise, much of the western U.S. can expect cooler than normal conditions thanks to an upper-level trough. Lastly, the central Great Basin is under a critical risk for fire weather for the rest of today.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

This loop showing the prior 40-hours provides perspective. We have not yet figured out how to make this loop update but it is still useful for a few days. An updated version and some other views can be found here.

– Return to Directory

Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Hazards:

– Heavy rain across portions of the Central Great Basin, the Central/Southern Rockies, and the Central/Southern Plains, Sun-Tue, Jul 26-Jul 28.
– Heavy rain across portions of the Central/Southern Plains, the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southeast, Sun-Mon, Jul 26-Jul 27.
– Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic, Wed-Thu, Jul 29-Jul 30.
– Heavy rain across portions of the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley, Mon, Jul 27.
– Heavy rain across portions of the Northeast, Tue, Jul 28.
– Flooding possible across portions of the Southern Plains.
– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Central Plains and the Northern Plains.
– Excessive heat across portions of the Northern/Central Plains and the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, Sun, Jul 26.
– Excessive heat across portions of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic, Mon-Tue, Jul 27-Jul 28.
– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Sun-Tue, Jul 26-Jul 28.
– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast, Sun-Mon, Jul 26-Jul 27.
– Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sun, Jul 26.
– Heavy rain across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon, Jul 27.

Detailed Summary:

Early next week for the beginning of the medium range period (Sunday, July 26), what is currently Tropical Depression Eight per the National Hurricane Center should produce heavy rain over southern portions of Texas as it moves westward after making landfall in Texas on Saturday. In conjunction with this tropical system, anomalously high tropical moisture should continue to affect the Gulf Coast states, and the central Gulf Coast could also see heavy rain early next week.

To the north, rainfall is possible along and ahead of a front forecast to move across the Plains and Midwest toward the Eastern Seaboard by midweek. Heavy rainfall is expected to focus across the Middle Mississippi Valley, Central Plains, and back toward the Central/Southern Rockies as the front stalls. Additional monsoonal moisture and possibly tropical moisture should contribute to this rainfall. As the front moves more quickly farther east, a couple of areas of quick-hitting heavy rain are currently forecast along it, one over the Upper Ohio Valley Monday and one in northern New England Tuesday. Another area of potentially heavy rainfall is the eastern Carolinas by Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

In terms of the upper levels, an expansive upper-level high will dominate much of the contiguous U.S. early next week. The core of the upper high is expected to move westward through the period toward the Four Corners region, as another high moves into the Pacific Northwest, combining to create a good ridge over the Northwest. Meanwhile, upper-level troughing is forecast to press eastward from the Midwest Monday into the Great Lakes and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic midweek. The Pacific Northwest to Northern Great Basin can expect high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early parts of next week underneath the ridge, and temperatures several degrees above average should push toward the Northern Plains later in the week. Farther east, excessive heat is possible centered over Iowa on Sunday before the aforementioned cold front passes, with heat indices over 105 degrees possible. Then along the Eastern Seaboard, high temperatures in the 90s should stretch toward New England on Sunday/Monday ahead of the front. Farther south, hot temperatures and high dewpoints could create another round of excessive heat across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas on Monday and especially Tuesday.

Meanwhile, westerly winds descending from the Appalachians combining with increasing humidity will raise the likelihood of much above normal temperatures for parts of the Mid-Atlantic early next week.

Over Alaska, moisture inflow near a surface low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska could lead to heavy rainfall across the southeastern mainland into the Panhandle on Sunday. Then, chances of precipitation increase in interior Alaska as moisture increases around Monday. Model guidance varies with the placement and magnitude of the rainfall, but delineated a Heavy Rainfall hazard area to show the threat exists. Temperatures are expected to remain cool across much of the state, especially for daytime highs.

Hurricane Douglas is still expected to move near or over portions of Hawaii early next week, per the National Hurricane Center. There is an increasing chance that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could affect portions of the state beginning on Sunday.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

– Return to Directory

Ski Snow Reports

We will resume more detailed coverage when the summer is over.

We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

There is not much snow left.

– Return to Directory

Tropical Events

This is now beyond the time of the year we pay special attention to Tropical Events other than the Western Pacific.

So I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Week Tropical Forecast

– Return to Directory

Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

– Return to Directory

Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

– Return to Directory

Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

– Return to Directory

Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

– Return to Directory

Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

– Return to Directory