Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 5:24 pm EDT) –

“- Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible for the Upper Midwest/Corn Belt into this evening and tonight…

– Critical Fire weather for parts of the Interior West…

– National Hurricane Center monitoring the low pressure system moving up the East Coast for tropical/subtropical development…”

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 325 PM EDT Wed Jul 08 2020

Valid 00Z Thu Jul 09 2020 – 00Z Sat Jul 11 2020

…Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible for the Upper Midwest/Corn Belt into this evening and tonight…

…Critical Fire weather for parts of the Interior West…

…National Hurricane Center monitoring the low pressure system moving up the East Coast for tropical/subtropical development…

A frontal system moving through the Plains will invade Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Along and ahead of the front, warm and juicy air will support the persistence and development of showers and thunderstorms. Heavier rainfall within more organized storms may lead to local flash flooding and ponding on roadways across portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Kansas. Temperatures in the warm air mass will climb into the 80s and low 90s from the Corn Belt eastward to the central Appalachians. The system will move into the western Great Lakes on Thursday with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Across the South, a lingering frontal boundary will provide the focus for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms from eastern Texas to the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. A strengthening surface low will be moving up the coast of North Carolina and the southern Mid-Atlantic States through Friday, which the National Hurricane Center gives a high chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone by Friday afternoon. The low will attempt to bring heavy rainfall near and north of its track, bringing a Marginal to Slight Risk of excessive rainfall up the coast from North Carolina towards southern New England, with the highest risk of flash flooding across eastern North Carolina late on Wednesday into early Thursday. See Tropical Weather Outlooks from the National Hurricane Center for more on its potential to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone. Abundant cloudiness and increasing northeast winds will keep temperatures milder than average in the low to mid 80s.

Over the Pacific Northwest, temperatures will continue cooler than normal as a weak cold front moves through and essentially reinforces the boundary across the Great Basin. For parts of the Four Corners region, Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are expected due to breezy conditions and low relative humidity values. Much warmer temperatures over west Texas may approach records each afternoon rising above 100F, with readings at or above 110F expected at Rio Grande Village. The Desert Southwest will be hotter still, with afternoon temperatures soaring into the 110s each afternoon, with lower 120s likely at Death Valley.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

This loop showing the prior 40-hours provides perspective. We have not yet figured out how to make this loop update but it is still useful for a few days. An updated version and some other views can be found here.

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Hazards:

– Heavy rain across portions of the Great Lakes and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Mon-Wed, Jul 13-Jul 15.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Northeast, Sat, Jul 11.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Northern Plains.

– Excessive heat across portions of California and the Southwest, Sat-Mon, Jul 11-Jul 13.

– Excessive heat across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Southeast, and the Southern Plains, Sat-Wed, Jul 11-Jul 15.

– Excessive heat across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Lower Mississippi Valley, Wed, Jul 15.

Detailed Summary:

The medium range period (Saturday, July 11 – Wednesday, July 15) will feature a very summer-like pattern dominated by expanding heat and isolated chances for heavy rain. A low pressure system currently off the coast of the Carolinas is forecast to move northward and into southern New England by Saturday. As a result, heavy rain will be possible across the region from Massachusetts to Maine. Current forecast rainfall amounts are between 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts possible depending on the eventual strength of the system. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the remainder of the Northeast on Saturday and Sunday, but impacts from heavy rain will be isolated.

Another area that could see heavy rain/flash flooding will be across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest between Monday, July 13 and Wednesday, July 15. A cold front will swing across the Northern Plains on Monday and run into a very warm and humid airmass. Thunderstorms are expected to break out across North Dakota and Minnesota on Monday, followed by repeated rounds of storms Tuesday and Wednesday as the front very slowly crosses the Upper Great Lakes. There is too much uncertainty to discuss specific rainfall amounts, but ensemble guidance shows moderate confidence in at least 1 inch of rain across the highlighted region. Portions of Minnesota, including Duluth and Minneapolis, could actually use the rain given how dry the last 30 days have been.

The most widespread weather hazard in this time-period will be the expanding area of Excessive Heat across the Southwest, Southern/Central Plains, Deep South, and into the Middle Mississippi Valley. Across the Southwest, high temperatures are forecast to soar well above 100 degrees and into possible record territory through Monday. In fact, Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona are forecast to tie or break their daily record high temperature on both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures are expected to cool slightly across the Southwest on Tuesday as the center of the upper-level ridge moves into the Southern Plains. Record-breaking heat is also in store across much of Texas, however heat indices will make it feel much hotter through the middle of next week east of the High Plains. Widespread heat indices greater than 110 degrees will be found from Texas and Oklahoma eastward to southern Alabama. This relentless heat will remain in place through Wednesday, as it also begins to expand further north and east into Missouri and the Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, expect the current Excessive Heat area on the Hazards Outlook graphic to expand eastward over the next couple of days. Another aspect of this heat wave will be low temperatures remaining well above average across this region, with temperatures only dipping into the 70s and low 80s, making it even harder to cool off at night if no A/C is available. Above average temperatures will begin to enter the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, leading to highs in the mid-90s.

No widespread weather hazards are expected across Alaska between Saturday and Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to remain below average with chances of rain and high elevation snow showers. An area of low pressure could reach the western Aleutian Islands by Wednesday, but confidence in any impacts is low at this time.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

We will resume more detailed coverage when the summer is over.

We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

There is not much snow left.

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Tropical Events

This is now beyond the time of the year we pay special attention to Tropical Events other than the Western Pacific.

So I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Week Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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