Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 4:59 pm EDT) – “Showers and thunderstorms will be most active over the northern Plains while scattered thunderstorms will persist from the Mid-South to the eastern Gulf Coast and northern Florida… Relatively quiet summer weather pattern expected for the rest of the country as we head into the Fourth of July weekend… Heavy rain across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains, Sat-Sun, Jul 4-Jul 5… Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, Sat-Mon, Jul 4-Jul 6… Flooding possible across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Ohio Valley… Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains.”

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Thu Jul 02 2020

Valid 00Z Fri Jul 03 2020 – 00Z Sun Jul 05 2020

…Showers and thunderstorms will be most active over the northern Plains while scattered thunderstorms will persist from the Mid-South to the eastern Gulf Coast and northern Florida…

…Relatively quiet summer weather pattern expected for the rest of the country as we head into the Fourth of July weekend…

The overall upper-level pattern across the country over the next couple of days will consist of a persistent upper-level trough over the Northwest, upper-level energy moving offshore from the Northeast, and an expanding upper-level ridge in between. Underneath the upper ridge, hot weather is expected in central and eastern parts of the country. Warm temperatures should combine with high dewpoints to create high heat indices in the Southern/Central Plains and Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley, where Heat Advisories are in effect until early this evening. Above normal temperatures with highs in the 90s are forecast from the upper Midwest eastward into the interior Northeast through Friday. Meanwhile in the West, temperatures should average to around normal for July.

Through Saturday, showers and thunderstorms are expected along a stationary frontal boundary from the Mid-South to the eastern Gulf Coast region and northern Florida, with some potential for flash flooding with localized heavy rain totals. Meanwhile, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for the Northeast as a back-door cold front dips down from eastern Canada before cooler and drier air arrives on Independence Day. In the north-central U.S., a front will push slowly through ahead of the western upper-level trough. Some rain and thunderstorms are expected into tonight, but the better chance for severe weather and flash flooding is forecast on Friday.

On the southern part of the western upper-level trough, southwesterly flow ahead of a front will lead to gusty winds and low humidity will lead to areas of elevated risks in the Central Great Basin for the next couple of days.

While the highest concentration of Saharan dust has dissipated, another round impacting the western and central Gulf Coast states should linger into the weekend. The primary impacts of the Saharan dust are hazy skies during the day, locally reduced visibility, degraded air quality, and the potential for vividly colorful sunrises and sunsets.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

This loop showing the prior 40-hours provides perspective. We have not yet figured out how to make this loop update but it is still useful for a few days. An updated version and some other views can be found here.

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Hazards:

– Heavy rain across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains, Sat-Sun, Jul 4-Jul 5.
– Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, Sat-Mon, Jul 4-Jul 6.
– Flooding possible across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Ohio Valley.
– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains.
– Excessive heat across portions of California and the Southwest, Sat-Tue, Jul 4-Jul 7.
– Excessive heat across portions of the Southeast, Sat-Wed, Jul 4-Jul 8.
– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains, Wed, Jul 8.
– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Great Lakes, the Mid-Atlantic, the Northeast, the Central Appalachians, and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Sat-Wed, Jul 4-Jul 8.
– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley, Sat-Sun, Jul 4-Jul 5.
– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Northeast, Tue-Wed, Jul 7-Jul 8.

Detailed Summary:

The medium range period (Sat 7/4 – Wed 7/8) is highlighted by temperatures that are hot as a firecracker. A dome of high pressure over the Southwest and northern Mexico should make for excessively hot conditions from southern Arizona to the high desert of Southern California. Meanwhile, south Florida will contend with steamy conditions both day and night much of the period. Sea surface temperatures surrounding the peninsula remain much above normal and upper level ridging returns next week. The hottest temperatures versus normal are expected to take place from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes this weekend to northern New England next week. Max temperature departures will hover around 12 degrees above normal in these regions, which combined with dew points in the upper 70s could lead to heat indices approaching the century mark. Lastly, ensemble guidance is hinting at the development of a large upper ridge forming over the southern High Plains and Rockies towards the middle of next week. High temperatures could make a run at 100 degrees and heat indices over 100 degrees in the central Plains.

Precipitation-wise, the two most active regions look to be the northern Plains and the Southeast. As a series of upper-level disturbances track through the Northwest, they emerge in the High Plains of Montana and the Dakotas. Passing frontal boundaries and upper level disturbances will trigger episodes of showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe and/or contain heavy rainfall. The most anomalous upper trough will transpire this weekend and early next week along the Gulf
Coast and over the Southeast. With both the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic moisture sources available, there should be plenty of scattered showers and storms that form along a stationary front stretching from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast coast. Where guidance becomes increasingly unclear is the positioning and movement of the trough, which makes areas at risk for heavy rainfall tricky. The heaviest precipitation is currently forecast to extend from the Florida
Panhandle to the South Carolina coast. There is still the potential for heavier rainfall elsewhere in the Southeast depending on the positioning and speed of the upper trough.

Alaska remains hazards-free as the state is wedged between a large upper level ridge over the Gulf of Alaska and northeast Pacific, an upper low over northeast Russia, and an upper low north of the Yukon. Rounds of showers are possible across interior Alaska but totals look to remain below threshold. Temperature wise, western Alaska warm to above normal levels but are also just below threshold. The state continues to be monitored for any increased fire weather potential through the first full week of July.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

We will resume more detailed coverage when the summer is over.

We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

There is not much snow left.

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Tropical Events

This is now beyond the time of the year we pay special attention to Tropical Events other than the Western Pacific.

So I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Week Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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