Written by Sig Silber

Updated at 6:11 pm EDT June 25, 2020 HEADLINES – “…The threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will spread across the northern Plains this evening, reaching the Northeast on Saturday……Saharan dust to arrive over the Gulf Coast states……Very hot conditions persist across parts of Florida and interior valleys of California…”

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 403 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020 Valid 00Z Fri Jun 26 2020 – 00Z Sun Jun 28 2020

…The threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will spread across the northern Plains this evening, reaching the Northeast on Saturday…

…Saharan dust to arrive over the Gulf Coast states…

…Very hot conditions persist across parts of Florida and interior valleys of California…

The upper-level disturbance over southeast Texas responsible for recent heavy rainfall across the Gulf Coast region will gradually weaken.  This will allow the threat of heavy rain and strong thunderstorms to slowly diminish.  However, bouts of thunderstorms are still expected, especially during late afternoon into the evening for the next couple of days.  Farther to the east, the western edge of the Bermuda high offshore of the Southeast will begin to nose westward across Florida toward the Deep South.  This will tend to suppress thunderstorm activities and allow afternoon temperatures to soar well up into the 90s for much of the Sunshine State into the weekend.  Record high temperatures could be challenged over central Florida during the next few days.

The building ridge of high pressure will also allow a Saharan dust layer to progress into much of the Gulf Coast region over the next couple of days.  The main impacts of the Saharan dust will be hazy skies during the day, locally reduced visibility and degraded air quality.  However, this will also make for some very colorful sunrises and sunsets with deeper oranges and reds compared to normal.

Across the northern Plains, an upper-level trough will continue to advance a cold front eastward into the upper Great Lakes late on Friday before heading toward New England on Saturday.  This will raise the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms, including a threat for large hail and  damaging winds from west to east across these areas during the next couple of days.  Locally heavy rainfall can also be expected as showers and thunderstorms develop and expand eastward ahead of the front, with localized concern for flash flooding.  High temperatures into the 90s are forecast to spread from the Midwest on Friday reaching the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Saturday.

In the West, the interior valleys of California are expected to remain hot with temperatures as much as 10 to 15 degrees above normal over the next few days, where Heat Advisories remain in place.  Meanwhile, a low pressure system developing over the interior Pacific Northwest and Albert in Canada on Friday is forecast to bring showers and some thunderstorms into the northern Rockies and northern High Plains on Saturday.

you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

This loop showing the prior 40-hours provides perspective. We have not yet figured out how to make this loop update but it is still useful for a few days. An updated version and some other views can be found here.

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

– Heavy rain across portions of the Northern Plains and the Northern Rockies, Sun-Mon, Jun 28-Jun 29.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains, Tue, Jun 30.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Great Lakes.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Northern Plains.

– Flooding likely across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley.

– High winds across portions of the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, California, the Northern Great Basin, and the Southwest, Sun, Jun 28.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Northern/Central Plains, and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Sun-Mon, Jun 28-Jun 29.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Great Lakes, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains, Tue-Thu, Jun 30-Jul 2.

– Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the Central Great Basin and the Southwest, Sun, Jun 28.

– Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the Southern Rockies, the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, and the Southwest, Mon, Jun 29.

Detailed Summary:

A tight pressure gradient between low pressure over the Great Basin and high pressure over the Eastern Pacific will aid in producing high wind over parts of the Great Basin on Sunday. Over the Great Basin into the Southwest fire weather conditions are expected to meet the criteria for enhanced wildfire risk on Sunday into Monday. Upper-level wind over the area will increase on Sunday and Monday which will result in surface winds of 30-40 mph with stronger gusts. A very dry airmass, and fuels will likely support widespread critical fire weather conditions for on Sunday into Monday.

In addition, a developing upper-level low will develop over the Pacific Northwest and will move inland to the Northern Rockies and slowly lift northward into Western Canada by Tuesday. The upper-level low will draw moisture over the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains that will produce rain with embedded thunderstorms over the region that will meet the criteria for heavy rain on Sunday into Monday. Downstream from the upper-level low upper-level riding will develop over the Upper Midwest which will allow temperatures to become 12 degrees above normal over the area that meets the criteria for much above normal temperatures also on Sunday into Monday. On Tuesday, another area of showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Northern Plains. The rain will be heavy enough to meet the criteria for heavy rain over the region. An upper-level high will develop over Southern Canada just north of Lake Superior on Tuesday into Thursday. The upper-level high will allow temperatures to become 12 degrees above normal over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday into Thursday which will meet the criteria for much above normal temperatures over the area.

Over Alaska, a robust upper-level trough moving eastward from the East Siberian Sea to the northwest mainland coast on Sunday. The system will produce rain over the Baird mountains and the southern hills of the Seward Peninsula but the rain will not be heavy enough to meat the criteria for heavy rain over the area. There will be more chances for copious amounts of showers across much of the mainland as the upper trough tracks over the state, while simultaneously ushering in a fairly chilly air-mass for late June and early July.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

We will resume more detailed coverage when the summer is over.

We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

There is not much snow left.

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Tropical Events

This is now beyond the time of the year we pay special attention to Tropical Events other than the Western Pacific.

So I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 25 2020

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical  Depression Three-E, located more than 1900 miles west-southwest of  the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low  pressure located a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast  of Mexico remain disorganized.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and the system  could become a tropical depression within the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

2. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend or early next week.  Gradual development  of this system is possible next week as it moves west-northwestward  parallel to the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Week Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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