June 19, 2020 Weather Impacts On Economic Activity – Focus On Drought Report

Written by Sig Silber

Last night we published the NOAA Seasonal Outlook. That precludes providing a full crop production report tonight but we will have the crop production summary. This article began as a Drought Report return to that tonight. We also have the state temperature and precipitation rankings for May. As usual, we provide a 28-day weather forecast where the first 14 days update daily. The production report changes slowly from week to week so we are not sure it even makes sense to publish the full report each week. We have included the summary slide but omitted the tables and supporting information. At the end of the article, there is a list of resources so a reader can find whatever we did not publish tonight and a lot more as we always have to be selective to keep the article at a manageable length.

The Landing Graphic probably should have said the Northwest and Nothern Rockies are slightly drought-prone but more people would be impacted in the Northwest. Last night we published the NOAA Seasonal Outlook. You can access it here.

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Directory

Special Topics for this Week

New Seasonal Drought Forecast

From the NOAA Seasonal Outlook last night.

May State Temperature and Precipitation Rankings (where May ranked in the modern 126 years of data recording)

Sometimes it is useful to look at precipitation by climate division

We show a different version of this later but now it becomes really important as it impacts summer water supply and it is not likely to be getting better as the summer wears on.

It is also useful to look at the last seven days.

Here is a side by side comparison

Current Drought Conditions

Now we take a look at Thursday’s U.S. Drought Monitor Report.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a comprehensive way of understanding the drought situation for the U.S. It is issued every Thursday and reflects the conditions as of the prior Tuesday. Drought is defined as a moisture deficit bad enough to have social, environmental, or economic effects. Thus, more factors than recent precipitation are considered and more information on how it is done is found at the end of this report.

U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

And this shows the U.S. including Alaska, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii.

Below is the map for just CONUS.

Last Week	This Week

Some might find this animation of twelve weeks of change useful;

The graphic below shows the one-week change in drought intensity. Yellow is bad. Green is good.

Now we show the week to week change information by region. The yellow is where the level of drought has been raised. The green is where the level of drought has been lowered.

A lot of one category degradation.

Indiana had one category of degradation almost everywhere. Western Kentucky also was dry.

Maine seemed to be the state that had the most degradation.

Again similar to last week. The dryness in western Texas and Oklahoma is beginning to be of concern.

Not much change this week.

Fairly dry. But there were some wet areas also.

Here is the Discussion that was issued with the Drought Report. The Regional Headings can be clicked on to obtain maps and statistics.

This Week’s Drought Summary

Significant rainfall missed most areas of dryness and drought across the contiguous 48 states, with improvements limited to part of the northern Intermountain West, central Kansas, and a few isolated spots in both Oregon and upstate New York. Elsewhere, dry conditions persisted or intensified. In particular, abnormally hot weather, low humidity, and gusty winds have led to rapidly-intensifying dryness across the Plains States. Extreme drought expanded in northern New Mexico, part of central and western Oklahoma, eastern Colorado, and western Kansas while broad areas of abnormal dryness and some moderate drought were introduced farther north.

Northeast

Only a few bands of moderate rainfall were noted in central parts of the Northeast Region, but a few tenths of an inch at most fell elsewhere as abnormal dryness expanded into southern New England and central Maine. Most other parts of the Region saw moisture deficits marginally increase, but not enough to justify any substantial D0 expansion or drought development (D1 or worse).

Southeast

Heavy rain soaked the Carolina and Georgia Coasts, the upper Florida Peninsula and adjacent areas, and parts of the Appalachian Foothills. Coastal southeastern North Carolina recorded 4 to 6 inches of rain. Elsewhere, light rain (if any) fell, but notable moisture deficits were limited to the far northeastern and southwestern fringes of the Southeast Region. Short-term rainfall deficits prompted D0 introductions in both northwestern Alabama and part of the southern DelMarVa Peninsula, but other parts of the Region remain free of impactful dryness.

South

Drought continues to rapidly develop and intensify across most of Texas and Oklahoma, with patchy dryness beginning to develop farther east in western Tennessee and adjacent Mississippi. Central parts of the region, soaked by heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm Cristobal last week, remained free of moisture deficits. Only isolated parts of Tennessee saw any significant precipitation this week. Western Texas and eastern New Mexico received less than 0.5 inch the past couple of months, and most of this area recorded under an inch for the past 90 days. Farther east in central Oklahoma, higher normals allowed rainfall deficits of 2.5 to 4.5 inches accumulate over the past few weeks. As a result, moderate to severe drought expanded in many areas from central Oklahoma to the Texas/New Mexico border as far south as the Big Bend. Precipitation shortfalls are less acute and of shorter duration on the east side of the South Region, but conditions deteriorated enough to introduce D0 there.

Midwest

A band of heavy rain soaked northeastern Missouri, eastern Iowa and much of the Great Lakes Region, plus scattered areas in western Iowa and Minnesota; however, most of the heavy rains evaded areas that have been dry. It was dry and warm elsewhere, especially along the southern tier from most of Missouri eastward through Ohio and adjacent Michigan. Moisture deficits have been gradually increasing in substantial parts of this region, and D0 conditions were introduced across much of Indiana and adjacent areas, western Kentucky, and also parts of the Upper Midwest missed by the heavy rain. As in areas farther west, low humidity and winds have intensified conditions, more than precipitation deficits alone would indicate.

High Plains

Conditions are rapidly deteriorating through most of the High Plains Region. Moderate to isolated heavy rainfall was observed in a few small areas in central Kansas, northeastern Nebraska, and adjacent South Dakota, but precipitation was scant and short-lived elsewhere. Improvements were introduced in central Kansas, but this is very much the exception. Although rainfall deficits only date back a few weeks to a few months, other factors are making things worse, specifically abnormal heat, low humidity, and gusty winds. High temperatures approached triple-digits as far north as South Dakota. All these factors led to broad areas of deterioration in eastern Colorado, southern Kansas, Wyoming, the Dakotas, and adjacent parts of Nebraska. Notably, extreme drought (D3) expanded to cover a large part of southern and eastern Colorado, and adjacent parts of Kansas.

West

Some northern parts of the region experienced another wet week while areas west and north of the Four Corners saw little or no rain. Exacerbating the dryness, temperatures averaged at least a couple degrees above normal in most dry areas, with weekly anomalies approaching +10 degrees F from the Great Basin northward into western Montana. Between 1.5 and 3.5 inches of rain fell on northeastern Oregon and adjacent Idaho, and from the Oregon and Washington Cascades westward to the Pacific Coast. The highest elevations in the Cascades and coastal ranges recorded 4 to 7 inches in a few spots. Elsewhere, only patchy light showers were noted in the rest of the Northwest and in parts of New Mexico, and other areas reported little or none. Recent rains have been sufficient to improve or remove dryness from western Idaho southward through the northern Great Basin, and in parts of western Oregon. In sharp contrast, conditions deteriorated along the southern tier of Montana and through parts of the Intermountain West, where precipitation has been much less abundant the past few weeks. Severe drought (D2) was introduced in southwest Montana.

Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico

Moderate drought (D2) eased across the central and northern Big Island of Hawaii, with some reduction in adjacent D0 conditions as well. Dryness and drought in other parts of that state remained unchanged. In Puerto Rico, persistent surplus rainfall prompted the removal of dry conditions across the northwestern quarter of the Island, but most other areas saw dryness become further entrenched. Dryness and moderate to severe drought expanded across the southern and western parts of the Commonwealth. Alaska remains drought-free.

Pacific Islands

Several weather features competed across the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) during this USDM week (6/10/20-6/16/20). An Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) set up across Micronesia at lower latitudes (south of 10 degrees North latitude) while, north of 10 N, a dry trade-wind flow at the surface was overlain by several Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs (TUTT cells) at the upper levels of the atmosphere. Surface troughs, trade-wind disturbances, and circulations added to the precipitation generated by differential wind speed convergence within the ITCZ. Divergence aloft, associated with the TUTT cells, contributed to precipitation caused by surface troughs and trade-wind disturbances, especially over the Marianas and western Micronesia near the end of the week. South of the equator, an active surface trough brought rain to American Samoa, with a dry air mass moving into the area by the end of the week.

Satellite-based estimates of 7-day precipitation (QPE) showed two continuous bands of precipitation, one stretching eastward from the Philippines and Indonesia just north of the equator, and a second one extending southeast from Indonesia past the Samoan Islands. Areas of 2+ inches of rain were seen from the equator to about 12 degrees N over Palau and western Yap State. The 2+ inch areas extended eastward in a narrowing band, reaching from about 4 to 8 degrees N over the Marshall Islands (RMI). The QPE revealed areas of 2 to 4 inches spread across the Samoan Islands, including American Samoa.

This week, 3.64 inches of rain fell in Pago Pago, 3.01 inches fell at Suifaga Ridge, and 1.92 at Toa Ridge, and drought-free conditions continued.

This week, 2.59 inches of rain fell at Palau IAP, and 1.01 fell at Koror, and drought-free conditions continued for another week.

Yap improved to short-term moderate drought this week, as 4.84 inches of rain fell on the heels of 6.71 inches last week, bringing their June monthly total to 11.96 inches. Short-term moderate drought continued on Ulithi, though 3.65 inches of rain fell this week. On Woleai, moderate short-term drought abated and short-term abnormal dryness remained, after 10.54 inches of rain in May, and 3.46 inches this week (bringing the June total to 8.26 inches). On Fananu, 1.24 inches of rain fell this week, marking at least the second consecutive week when the weekly minimum was missed. Given missing data beyond the past 3 weeks, no depiction was made this week, though very short-term dryness is noted. On Chuuk, abnormal dryness gave way to normal conditions, as 3.79 inches of rain fell, bringing the June monthly total to 8.05 inches and marking the third consecutive month when monthly minimum rainfall was met. On Lukunor, 2.92 inches of rain fell this week, continuing drought-free conditions there. Nukuoro received 3.77 inches of rain this week, and drought-free conditions also continued there. On Kapingamarangi, a paltry 0.02 inches of rain fell, and conditions descended into short-term moderate drought. According to local reports, household water storage tanks there were at 25 percent capacity. On Pohnpei, drought-free conditions continued this week as 5.82 inches of rain fell, snapping a two-week streak of below weekly minimum rainfall. Two inches of rain fell on Pingelap this week, continuing drought-free conditions there. On Kosrae, 7.86 inches of rain fell, continuing drought-free conditions there as well.

Rainfall measurements on Saipan this week were 0.20, 0.46, and 0.59 inches. Given the minimal rainfall this week and the ongoing short- and long-term precipitation deficits here, short- and long-term exceptional drought continued this week. On Rota, 0.57 inches of rain fell, breaking a streak of two consecutive weeks of above one inch of rainfall. Given the paltry rainfall of March, April, and May, and the small rain amount this week, short-term extreme drought continued. Given monthly rainfall below the monthly minimum from December through April, short-term moderate drought continued on Guam this week; however, 1.01 inches of rain there marked the third consecutive week with at least the weekly minimum of one inch.

On Kwajalein, 1.48 inches of rain fell this week, and moderate short-term drought continued. Abnormal dryness ended this week on Ailinglapalap, where 3.09 inches of rain fell, marking three consecutive weeks of at least weekly minimum rainfall. On Jaluit, 2.70 inches of rain fell, and drought-free conditions continued. Data was missing from Utirik, so no depiction was made there. On Wotje, 1.18 inches of rain fell this week (below the weekly minimum of two inches), and short- and long-term extreme drought continued there. On Majuro, 2.13 inches of rain fell this week, and drought-free conditions continued there. On Mili, 4.16 inches of rain fell, and drought-free conditions continued.

Virgin Islands

Short-term severe drought continued on St. Thomas and St. John, and short- and long-term severe drought continued on St. Croix. On St. Croix, low groundwater, slightly warmer than normal temperatures, and precipitation deficits out to one year indicated continuation of severe drought conditions. On St. Thomas, short-term precipitation deficits combined with low groundwater and slightly above normal temperatures to continue short-term severe drought there. Low groundwater and short-term precipitation deficits continued on St. John as well, leading to a continuation of short-term severe drought there.

Looking Ahead

June 18-22 should be a fairly wet week (upwards of 0.5 inch rain) from the south-central Plains northward through Iowa and Minnesota, with the east-central Great Plains and the western Red River Valley of the South expecting over two inches. Farther east, a non-tropical storm is forecast to bring moderate to heavy rain to the Middle Atlantic States. Generally, areas from northern North Carolina through southern Pennsylvania should receive 0.5 to locally 2.0 inches of rain. The northern and western Great Lakes region should anticipate moderate amounts topping out under 1.5 inches. Looking from the Rockies westward, moderate to locally heavy (high-elevation) precipitation is anticipated in central and western Montana, and moderate totals are expected in the northern Great Basin and adjacent areas. Meanwhile, subnormal temperatures are forecast from the central Rockies and Plains northward to the Canadian border, with daily highs forecast to average around 6 degrees F below normal there. In contrast, higher than normal temperatures are expected in parts of Nevada and California, as well as the Northeast. Readings should be 6 to 12 degrees F above normal in upstate New York and New England.

The CPC 6-10 day outlook (June 23-27) shows a tilt of the odds toward above-normal precipitation from the central and southern Plains eastward to the Atlantic Coast, save Florida. Areas in and around the northern Great Basin should also expect above-normal precipitation. In contrast, subnormal totals are favored in the Big Bend, the central and southern Rockies, and the northern tier of states from the Great Plains to the West Coast. Increased chances of above normal temperatures cover the Eastern Seaboard, and also the Rockies westward to the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile, odds favor subnormal temperatures from the Plains to the Appalachians.

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast (it is somewhat redundant with the Visual Consistency Analysis presented earlier but if I remove it, I may forget to put it back in next week).

And then Precipitation

Some may find the below way of looking at things useful and I hope these graphics are not too small to read. I did not make them so you could click on them individually but you can click on the whole graphic and it may enlarge. But I think you get the picture. It has been a rapid onset and demise. When you read these graphics, remember that the older graphics are not the drought conditions that existed then but the change from then until now.

Let’s focus on the change between May 19, 2020 and June 16, 2020, i.e. one month.

Focusing on the Intermountain West

Drought Forecasts

These two forecasts (Monthly and Season) are issued by the same agency but to obtain them you need to access two different links here and here.

Here is the Three-Month Forecast which was issued on May 21, 2020

Here is the discussion that was released with this report on June 17, 2020

Discussion for the Seasonal Drought Outlook

Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) included the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for July and July through September 2020 (JAS), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), the Week 3-4 outlooks and tools from CPC, dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scales, the 384-hour total precipitation forecasts from several runs of the GFS, climatology for the JAS season, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The oceanic and atmospheric conditions reflect ENSO neutral conditions which are most likely (60 percent chance) to persist through the summer.

Short-term drought rapidly expanded and intensified across eastern New Mexico during early to mid-June, due to little or no rainfall (less than 0.5 inch) and above normal temperatures. Soil moisture has decreased below the 5th (20th) percentile across northeast (southeast) New Mexico. Although drought is unlikely to improve through the beginning of July, an increasing wet climatology associated with the Southwest Monsoon favors a 1-category improvement to short-term drought across eastern New Mexico by the end of September. During July-August-September (JAS), eastern New Mexico typically receives 45 to 65 percent of its annual precipitation. Persistence is the more likely outcome in areas farther to the west where long-term drought exists. Drought is likely to persist across the Great Basin and California due to a relatively dry climatology.

Long-term drought continues across the Pacific Northwest where water-year-to-date (since Oct 1, 2019) precipitation has averaged less than 50 percent of normal in parts of Oregon and Washington. Since mid-May, precipitation has averaged 150 to 400 percent across much of the Pacific Northwest. This anomalous wetness along with cooler-than-normal temperatures have prompted slight improvements to drought where the heaviest precipitation occurred. Although the JAS outlook calls for increased chances of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation, the wet end to spring precludes a larger area of drought development across the Pacific Northwest. This region will be closely monitored in the monthly drought outlooks this summer.

Short-term drought and abnormal dryness has recently developed across parts of Montana. Persistence and development through the southern tier of Montana is generally consistent with the JAS precipitation and temperature outlook, but predicted rainfall during the latter half of June lowers forecast confidence. Persistence and slight expansion of the drought in northeast Montana is favored due the lack of strong wet signal among tools along with likelihood of above-normal temperatures during the summer.

Forecast confidence for the Western Region is high for California and moderate elsewhere.

Colorado has experienced rapidly worsening conditions for much of the state. Since precipitation associated with the Southwest Monsoon typically accounts for less of its annual precipitation, persistence is favored for all of the ongoing drought across Colorado. Increased chances of below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures during JAS favor an expansion of drought northward across the central Rockies. Extreme drought (D3) exists across southwest Kansas, while eastern Kansas remains drought-free. Based on 7-day precipitation amounts (1 to 3 inches) and a continuation of a relatively wet pattern through the final week of June, improvement or removal is favored for central Kansas. Pockets of abnormal dryness and short-term moderate drought have developed across parts of the northern to central Great Plains west to Wyoming. Based on the Jul-Aug-Sep outlook calling for increased chances of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation, drought is likely to persist and expand across Wyoming. May and June are typically the wettest two months of the year for North Dakota and precipitation gradually declines later through August and September. This drying climatology with time, the absence of a wet signal among the tools, and elevated chances of above normal temperatures during JAS favor persistence and slight expansion of drought across North Dakota. Although short-term drought may develop at times across South Dakota and Nebraska, forecast confidence is too low to designate a development area at this time. The Northern and Central Great Plains will be closely monitored in the monthly drought outlooks this summer.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the High Plains Region.

Rapid drought development and intensification occurred across much of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and the Texas Panhandle since late May due to a lack of rainfall along with above normal temperatures and high evapotranspiration rates. According to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, topsoil moisture rated as short to very short increased from 23 percent to 69 percent during the first two weeks of June. A more favorable pattern for much needed rainfall is expected to develop as an upper-level trough develops over the central U.S. during mid to late June. Based on a trend towards a wetter pattern during the latter half of June along with a lack of a dry signal among the seasonal tools, improvement is favored for parts of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. In addition, 7-day rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches could reduce 30 to 90-day deficits across much of Oklahoma. Tropical Storm Cristobal along with above-normal precipitation preceding it resulted in widespread improvement and elimination of drought along the Gulf Coast during May into early June. Continued removal of any lingering drought is likely during the outlook period. Although short-term deficits have developed across western Tennessee, increased chances of above normal precipitation during Week-2 and through the seasonal time scale preclude any development for this area.

Forecast confidence is low to modeate for the Southern Region.

Much of the Midwest remains drought-free with only small areas of short-term moderate drought across parts of Minnesota. Based on 7-day rainfall amounts and lack of a dry signal at the seasonal time scale, removal is forecast for those small D1 areas. Since the CPC seasonal outlooks call for slightly elevated chances of above normal precipitation for the eastern two-thirds of the Corn Belt, no development is forecast at the seasonal time scale. However, scattered areas of short-term dryness across Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky will have to be closely monitored for development with the July drought outlook.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Midwest Region.

During the past 90 days, near to above normal precipitation was observed throughout the Southeast with the largest surpluses (8 inches or more) observed across parts of the Carolinas and Florida. Tropical Storm Cristobal brought heavy rainfall (2 to 6 inches, locally more) to Florida’s Big Bend and west along the Gulf Coast. As of mid-June, there is only a small area of long-term drought designated for parts of the Mobile, Alabama area. Based on a wet summertime climatology and the seasonal outlook, removal is likely for lingering drought area. Given the increased chances of above normal precipitation during Jul-Aug-Sep along with the antecedent wetness for much of the Southeast, broad areas of development are unlikely through the end of September.

Forecast confidence is high for the Southeast Region.

Abnormal dryness continues to expand across New England where 30-day deficits exceed 3 inches in parts of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. In addition, numerous 28-day streamflows have fallen below the 10th percentile. Although drought development remains favored in the short-term (see the June monthly outlook), it is highly uncertain that drought would persist through the end of September. Therefore, no development is forecast at the seasonal time scale.

Forecast confidence is low for the Northeast Region.

Alaska has remained drought-free since March. Since the seasonal outlook calls for increased chances of above normal precipitation across much of Alaska, development is unlikely to occur during the summer.

Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.

Ongoing drought across Hawaii�is likely to persist through the end of September. Abnormal dryness (D0) expanded to all the Hawaiian Islands during May and drought development is favored for the leeward sides. However, removal is more likely along the Kona slopes region on the Big Island where it is their wet season.

Forecast confidence is moderate for Hawaii.

Moderate to severe drought recently developed across Puerto Rico. Since the North American Multi-Model Ensemble depicts increased chances of above normal precipitation across the Caribbean region, improvement or removal of drought are most likely by the end of September.

Forecast confidence is low for Puerto Rico.

Here is the Monthly Drought Outlook which was updated on May 31, 2020.

Floods

Wildfires

Current Wildfire Risk. This is a new model that updates daily by NOAA (but not automatically in this article) to show the short-term risk.

Click here to update. Red is high risk, blue is low risk. This graphic updates daily but you have to click on the link provided to get the updates More information can be found here.

This explains the model a bit.

The below graphics are monthly risk estimates for Wildland Fire Potential. They update monthly.

Looking out another month.

Here is another way of looking at it.

Crop and Animal Husbandry Progress.

USDA Executive Briefings can be found here NASS reports can be found here. Foreign Intelligence reports can be found here.

There were a lot of NASS reports this week and we did not have time to prepare them all for publication. This shows the major reports scheduled. Most are NASS Reports.

Major Sources of Information

In the box are shown the major resources we use. We will not be using them all each week but the reader is welcome to refer to these resources.

Background Information

The sequence of drought occurrence and impacts for commonly accepted drought types. All droughts originate from a deficiency of precipitation or meteorological drought but other types of drought and impacts cascade from this deficiency. (Source: NDMC)

Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln