Written by Sig Silber

Updated at 7:50 pm EDT Saturday June 20. 2020 – “…Severe weather and flash flooding are possible with storms in the Plains for the next couple days……Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the East……Hot temperatures continue for the Northeast…”

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 356 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020 Valid 00Z Sun Jun 21 2020 – 00Z Tue Jun 23 2020

…Severe weather and flash flooding are possible with storms in the Plains for the next couple days…

…Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the East…

…Hot temperatures continue for the Northeast…

As moisture flows into the vicinity of a couple frontal boundaries and ahead of a dryline, the Plains and portions of the Mississippi Valley can expect scattered thunderstorms through the beginning of next week. Through tonight, Slight Risks of severe weather are outlooked by the Storm Prediction Center for parts of the Plains. Isolated higher rainfall totals causing flash flooding are possible, especially for portions of southern Oklahoma and far northern Texas. On Sunday and Monday, the Storm Prediction Center again has Slight to Enhanced Risk of severe weather in place for the Central/Southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley. With a couple of inches of rain possible each day, Slight Risks of flash flooding are delineated mainly for parts of Oklahoma as well.

Farther east, unsettled weather is also expected for the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys toward the Eastern Seaboard, with scattered thunderstorms forecast. Widespread severe weather or flash flooding are not likely in those areas, though through tonight the Carolina/Georgia coast could see a few strong storms, and isolated instances of flash flooding are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. Rain and thunderstorm chances should increase across the Midwest to Great Lakes region on Monday ahead of a low pressure system. Elsewhere, a front moving through the Northwest could trigger showers and isolated thunderstorms through tonight, drying out on Sunday.

The most anomalous temperature departures from normal over the next few days are forecast for the Northeast, where highs nearing or even exceeding 90 degrees are again possible. Heat is forecast to build into California and the Great Basin Sunday and especially Monday, with hot temperatures expected for the Southern High Plains as well. The coolest temperatures should be seen across the north-central U.S.

you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

This loop showing the prior 40-hours provides perspective. We have not yet figured out how to make this loop update but it is still useful for a few days. An updated version and some other views can be found here.

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

– Heavy rain across portions of the Central/Southern Plains, the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Southeast, and the Ohio Valley, Mon-Wed, Jun 22-Jun 24.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Southern Plains, Wed-Fri, Jun 24-Jun 26.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Northern Plains, and the Northern Rockies.

– Flooding likely across portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of California, the Great Basin, the Pacific Northwest, and the Southwest, Mon-Fri, Jun 22-Jun 26.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Great Basin and the Pacific Northwest, Tue-Wed, Jun 23-Jun 24.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Northeast, Mon-Wed, Jun 22-Jun 24.

Detailed Summary:

During the medium range period (Monday 6/22 to Friday 6/26), an upper-level low is expected to move slowly eastward across south-central and southeastern Canada. Ahead of this low, warmer than average temperatures will persist across the Northeast through the first half of next week, with temperatures nearing or exceeding 90 degrees. A cold front is forecast to push through the region around midweek, which should bring temperatures closer to normal.

Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to flow into the vicinity of a couple of fronts in south-central parts of the U.S., causing the potential for rain and thunderstorms. Heavy rain is currently expected to focus over the Middle Mississippi Valley Monday, while some modest to locally heavy rainfall totals are possible farther north into the Midwest and Ohio Valley along northern portions of the front. As the front slowly presses southeastward, so will the precipitation chances, and the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Tennessee Valley could see heavy rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday. Then, the best chance of heavy rainfall totals should focus along coastal southern Texas. While there is some potential for heavy rain farther inland to the west or north, model guidance varies regarding amounts and extent. Late in the week, there is also the possibility of another rain event for the Central Plains to Midwest, but once again there is not a good model consensus, so will need to continue monitoring that potential.

In the West, upper-level ridging should take hold through Wednesday, causing above normal temperatures across much of the West Coast states and into the Great Basin. By Thursday and Friday, troughing is forecast to move into the Northwest, but warmth should still continue to the south over California and western Nevada. Localized areas of excessive heat are possible, especially for the Sacramento Valley and the Mojave Desert. The Southwest can also expect very hot temperatures, but just a few degrees above normal for this time of year.

Over Alaska, a wet pattern is expected for much of the state–the Panhandle should see rain for the first half of the workweek, a surface low pressure system moving across could create precipitation over the Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula around midweek, and portions of the mainland could see scattered convection through the period. However, there is not currently any consistent model signal for widespread or heavy precipitation amounts, so no hazard area was delineated. Additionally, cooler than normal temperatures are forecast for northwestern portions of the state, but should not create hazardous conditions for this time of year. The same is true for southern portions of the mainland and Panhandle. Higher elevations of the southeastern mainland could experience low temperatures below freezing, however.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

We will resume more detailed coverage when the summer is over.

We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

There is not much snow left.

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Tropical Events

This is now beyond the time of the year we pay special attention to Tropical Events other than the Western Pacific.

So I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of disturbed weather is centered a few hundred miles  off the southeast U.S. coast. This disturbance is forecast to move  northeastward and a non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form over the weekend. Significant development is not expected,  however the system could briefly acquire some subtropical  characteristics when it moves over the Gulf Stream on Sunday.  Further development is not anticipated once the low moves over cooler waters early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

 

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Week Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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