Written by Sig Silber
HEADLINES – “…Relatively cool and showery weather continues across the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and into the Ohio Valley for a couple more days……Hotter than normal conditions from the Plains to New England; strong thunderstorms from the central Plains to upper Midwest……Mainly dry on the West Coast with heat building in; fire weather threat eases across the Southwest…”
This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.
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CONUS Focal Points
Short Range Focal Points
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 437 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Valid 00Z Fri Jun 19 2020 – 00Z Sun Jun 21 2020
…Relatively cool and showery weather continues across the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and into the Ohio Valley for a couple more days…
…Hotter than normal conditions from the Plains to New England; strong thunderstorms from the central Plains to upper Midwest…
…Mainly dry on the West Coast with heat building in; fire weather threat eases across the Southwest…
A slow-moving upper-level low that has brought cool and wet weather across the Mid-Atlantic into the central Appalachians will continue to gradually weaken. Showers and a few thunderstorms associated with this system will gradually become more widely scattered with time. In fact, some breaks in the overcast skies can be expected during the afternoon, allowing for periods of party sunny skies. However, the strong June sunshine will tend to trigger new rounds of scattered showers from late afternoon into the evening hours for some areas along the East Coast into the Ohio Valley through Saturday. As the upper low weakens, temperatures will gradually warm to the point where highs in the 80s return by the weekend. In contrast, full sunshine will raise afternoon temperatures well into the 90s across northern New England, where record high temperatures are possible for the next couple of days at a few locations. Farther south, upward motion aloft over Florida and an influx of tropical moisture make for a stormy couple of days, especially over central and southern Florida. Rainfall totals in excess of two inches could occur within strong thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, summer heat continues from the southern Plains across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes. High temps in these regions are forecast to range between the upper 80s and low 90s. Daily episodes of severe storms are possible today from the Midwest stretching south to the southern Plains as a cold front approaches from the northern Plains. The severe threat diminishes in the Midwest on Friday but severe storms are expected to fire again in the southern High Plains on Friday. Behind the cold front, very cool temperatures over the Intermountain West will filter into the northern and central High Plains. The core of the cool air will spread from the northern and central Rockies into the central High Plains by Friday.
Much of the West Coast should remain rain-free into the start of the weekend with above normal temperatures spreading from the the Pacific Northwest on south to the San Joaquin Valley, reaching the Great Basin on Saturday. In the Southwest, some good news as fire weather conditions, for the first time in many days, do not feature extensive areas of elevated or critical fire areas. T here is, however, one area of elevated fire weather conditions still present in southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico.
you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.
Thunderstorm Risk
This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation
Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.
The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.
Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.
Day One CONUS Forecast | Day Two CONUS Forecast |
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be | |
During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.
Temperature
This 40-hour loop provides perspective. We may not yet have figured out how to get this loop to update to the present date and time. But it still remains useful for a few days. Some other views can be found here. In particular you will be able to get an up-to-date version of the loop.
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Day 3 – 7 Hazards
– Heavy rain across portions of the Central/Southern Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Tennessee Valley, Sun-Wed, Jun 21-Jun 24.
– Heavy rain across portions of the Southern Plains, Tue-Thu, Jun 23-Jun 25.
– Flooding possible across portions of the Northern Plains.
– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Northern Plains.
– Flooding likely across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and the Northern Rockies.
– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Central Great Basin, California, and the Northern Great Basin, Tue-Thu, Jun 23-Jun 25.
– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Northeast, Sun-Tue, Jun 21-Jun 23.
Detailed Summary:
An upper-level ridging ahead of an upper-level trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley will build into parts of the Northeast as an upper-level low over the Mid-Atlantic slowly weakens on Sunday. The building upper-level ridging will allow temperatures to become 12 degrees above normal over the Northeast on Sunday. On Sunday the upper-level trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley will begin to move into the Northeast. These conditions meet the criteria for depicting and area of much above normal temperatures over the region on Sunday into Monday. After Monday the upper-level trough will move over the Northeast making the temperatures cooler than the criteria.
Upper-level ridging over the Pacific will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest overnight Monday. The ridging will remain over the area and additional ridging will move onshore on Thursday. The ridging over the area will allow temperature to become 12 degrees above normal that will reach the criteria for much above normal temperatures over a relatively small area over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern California from Tuesday into Thursday.
A front extend from the Upper Great Lakes to the Southern High Plains and will move eastward to the Lower Great Lakes to the Central Plains will stalling over the area. A plume of moisture will move northward from the Western Gulf of Mexico northward over the Southern Plains on Sunday into Monday that will overrun the front. Showers and thunderstorms and maybe a convective system will develop along the front that will produce enough rain to meet the criteria for heavy rain over parts of the Central/Southern Plains into parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Tennessee Valley on Sunday into Wednesday. Meanwhile, upper-level energy over parts of the Western Gulf Coast and moisture flowing off the Gulf of Mexico will aid in producing heavy rain over the Western Gulf Coast in Texas on Tuesday into Thursday.
No hazards are delineated over Alaska. There will be rain over the Alaska Panhandle yet the rain will not meet the criteria for heavy rain over the area.
(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.
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Ski Snow Reports
We will resume more detailed coverage when the summer is over.
We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.
There is not much snow left.
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Tropical Events
This is now beyond the time of the year we pay special attention to Tropical Events other than the Western Pacific.
So I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size.
the Central Pacific. | the Eastern Pacific | the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico |
Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.
And the Western Pacific
Week Tropical Forecast
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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast
And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).
First Temperature
And then Precipitation
For those interested in more detail, there are additional weather maps and information in the MORE WEATHER Addendum. The link to the Addendum is here. |
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Mesoscale Events
The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.
Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.
This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.
There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.
The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.
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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps
The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.
The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.
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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report
This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.
500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View
The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.
Day 3 Above, 6 Below | Day 4 Above,7 Below | Day 5 Above. |
Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3
Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5
Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7
Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.
Looking ahead to next week.
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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings
Current watches, warnings, and advisories issued by the agencies of the National Weather Service. Hazards should show up in the various maps but the below links will take you to all outstanding watches and warnings in each category which may include some categories not covered in the various maps or difficult to find. So if there is a category of interest, click on the appropriate link below. |
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Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.
Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.
Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event. | These maps are updated as risks are identified. |
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page. | |
Convective Outlooks | |
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This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online. | Today’s Outlook |
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. | Tomorrow’s Outlook |
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. | Day 3 Outlook |
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point). | Day 4-8 Outlook |
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent. | Thunderstorm Outlook |
Fire Weather Outlooks | |
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Today’s Outlook |
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Tomorrow’s Outlook |
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product. | Day 3-8 Outlook |