Written by Sig Silber

Updated at 6:33 pm Sunday June 14, 2020 – “…Rain and thunderstorms expected across the Southern/Central Appalachians and Carolinas, and flash flooding is possible……Cool and damp conditions forecast for the Northwest……Severe weather possible in the Northern Plains today along with continuing heat……Critical Risks of fire weather continue in the Four Corners and High Plains…”

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 352 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020 Valid 00Z Mon Jun 15 2020 – 00Z Wed Jun 17 2020

…Rain and thunderstorms expected across the Southern/Central Appalachians and Carolinas, and flash flooding is possible…

…Cool and damp conditions forecast for the Northwest…

…Severe weather possible in the Northern Plains today along with continuing heat…

…Critical Risks of fire weather continue in the Four Corners and High Plains…

High pressure in control over much of the eastern U.S. makes for a cooler and mostly dry Sunday and Monday from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. Farther south, however, a stalled frontal boundary draped along the Carolina coast and an upper-level low over the Ohio Valley should generate wet weather across the Central/Southern Appalachians through tomorrow and the Carolinas through the first half of the week. 1 to 2 inches of rain are possible in portions of the Appalachians along with potentially strong thunderstorms before rain chances wind down late Monday there. Rainfall totals through Tuesday evening are forecast to be highest along the coastal Carolinas, where 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected. Rainfall rates could become intense at times, and flooding and flash flooding are possible through Tuesday. South Florida could also see some showers and thunderstorms with this system. In addition to the rain, very cool temperatures for mid-June are expected to persist into the first half of the week, with highs in the 70s and even 60s as far south as North Carolina.

The Northwest will also contend with its own stretch of cool and dreary weather thanks to a pair of upper-level disturbances tracking overhead. Precipitation will fall primarily in the form of rain, but some snow could fall in the Northern Rockies and Cascades due to cooler temperatures than normal. Precipitation totals should be 1 to 2 inches in favored upslope areas. Meanwhile, ahead of the upper-level trough, ridging is forecast to persist over the Plains and build into the Midwest through the first half of the week, causing much above normal temperatures. Severe thunderstorms are possible through tonight along a cold front, and there is a Slight Risk of severe weather in place over portions of the Dakotas, with potential for another round of strong storms on Tuesday.

Ahead of the western trough, gusty winds and low humidity levels are forecast across the Southwest, Rockies, and Plains. Isolated diurnal thunderstorms are possible over the Southern Rockies, but little in the way of beneficial rainfall is expected. Critical Risks of fire weather are indicated for portions of the Four Corners states and the Southern/Central High Plains today as Red Flag Warnings are in effect. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely to continue into the first half of the upcoming week due to the continual presence of upper-level troughing over the Northwest.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

Water Vapor.

This view of the past 24 hours provides a lot of insight as to what is happening. I changed the map to one that shows intensity. I think it may be relatively new. Not sure.

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

– Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley, Thu-Fri, Jun 18-Jun 19.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, the Central/Southern Appalachians, and the Mid-Atlantic, Mon-Wed, Jun 15-Jun 17.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains, the Southeast, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley.

– Flooding likely across portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains, and the Northern Rockies.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Northern/Central Plains, the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Great Lakes, Mon-Thu, Jun 15-Jun 18.

Detailed Summary:

An upper-level ridge extending from the Southern Plains northeastward to the Upper Great Lakes will remain in place from Monday into Wednesday when upper-level troughing over the Northwest moves eastward to the Upper Great Lakes by Friday. The upper-level ridging will allow temperatures to become 12 degrees above normal, starting in the Central Plains and building into the Great Lakes by Wednesday. These conditions met the criteria for depicting and area of much above normal temperatures over the region.

The front associated with the upper-level troughing will move eastward from the Northwest to the Great Lakes by Thursday. By Friday, the front will become west-east orientated across the Central Plains into the Great Lakes. Moisture will pool along the boundary aiding in the development of showers and thunderstorms from the Central Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley on Thursday and Friday. The rain will be heavy enough to met the criteria for heavy rain over the region from Thursday into Friday.

An upper-level low over the Central Appalachians will induce a low along a front over the Southeast Coast on Monday. The surface low will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over the Southern Mid-Atlantic Coast on Monday into Wednesday. The rain will be heavy enough to met the criteria for depicting an area of heavy rain over the region.

No hazards are delineated over Alaska.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

We will resume more detailed coverage when the summer is over.

We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

There is not much snow left.

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Tropical Events

This is now beyond the time of the year we pay special attention to Tropical Events other than the Western Pacific.

So I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Week Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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