Written by Sig Silber

Updated at 6:37 pm EDT Thursday April 9, 2020 to add the extensive Day 3 – 7 Hazards Forecast. We are working hard to keep this site up to date while dealing with Internet Outages – “…Significant snowfall and gusty winds impact northern New England through Friday morning……Cold air will continued to be ushered into the eastern U.S. behind an intense storm centered near the New England coast……Heavy rain threat decreases over the Desert Southwest but increases over Texas as snow spreads into the northern Rockies later on Friday into the weekend…”

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations. We include a Ski Report.

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Directory

CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 405 PM EDT Thu Apr 09 2020 Valid 00Z Fri Apr 10 2020 – 00Z Sun Apr 12 2020

…Significant snowfall and gusty winds impact northern New England through Friday morning…

…Cold air will continued to be ushered into the eastern U.S. behind an intense storm centered near the New England coast…

…Heavy rain threat decreases over the Desert Southwest but increases over Texas as snow spreads into the northern Rockies later on Friday into the weekend…

The weather in the Northeast will be highlighted by a rapidly intensifying area of low pressure across New England tonight into early Friday. On the northern side of the storm, precipitation will fall in the form of wet snow across northern New England and will likely become heavy this evening.  Winds will also become increasingly strong and gusty. The storm center is forecast to track across Downeast Maine Friday morning and begin to move away into the Canadian Maritimes thereafter. By the time the snow tapers off later in the day on Friday, over a foot of snow will have accumulated with some localized spots in northern Maine and New Hampshire picking up as much as two feet. In addition, lake effect snow showers will drop several inches of snow down wind of Lakes Erie and Ontario with an inch or two also possible in the central Appalachians.

To the south, a strong cold front is pushing the associated showers and thunderstorms off the East Coast before ushering in a much cooler and drier airmass across much of the eastern U.S. under blustery west to northwesterly winds. Morning lows will dip to around freezing in portions of the Midwest Friday morning and across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Saturday morning.  Meanwhile, below freezing temperatures forecast for the northern part of the country Friday morning has prompted Freeze Warnings over parts of the central Plains.

The pesky upper-level low that has doused California with heavy rain and mountain snowfall since this past weekend will continue to meander across the Desert Southwest for one more day before drifting slowly away on Saturday. Pacific moisture wrapping around the upper low will continue to produce coastal and valley rains with some snow in the higher elevations through tonight. The upper low should begin to show signs of weakening on Friday as it drifts farther south to near the Mexican border. The upper low will then head for the southern Plains by Saturday setting the stage for what is potentially shaping up to be an active Easter weekend in terms of heavy rain and severe weather across the South.  Meanwhile, the northern Rockies will see an increasing threat of snow as a cold front associated with a surge of cold Canadian air mass reaches the region.  The snow could become heavy as the cold front pushes farther south into Wyoming during the day on Saturday.

Click here for the latest complete NWS/WPC Short Range Discussion. (Sometimes we provide part of or even the full discussion above and you can tell because it goes beyond the bullet points. We do that when we think the bullet points do not provide enough information. But the link just provided always takes you to the full discussion with updates twice a day and sometimes we are a bit late updating the bullet points so that link will get you there. You can tell if we are late by the time of the stamped update. This time of the year, NOAA does the updates at around 3 a.m. and 3 p.m. EST. We try to do the updates in our article as close to that as possible but it is not always possible.)

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

Water Vapor.

This view of the past 24 hours provides a lot of insight as to what is happening.

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

– Heavy rain across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Appalachians, the Tennessee Valley, the Northeast, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Sun-Mon, Apr 12-Apr 13.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, Wed, Apr 15.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Southern Plains, the Southern Rockies, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Great Lakes, Sun-Mon, Apr 12-Apr 13.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Sun, Apr 12.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Central Appalachians, Wed-Thu, Apr 15-Apr 16.

– Severe weather across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, and the Southern Plains, Sun, Apr 12.

– Severe weather across portions of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic, Mon, Apr 13.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Northern Plains.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley.

– High winds across portions of the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, the Southern Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains, Sun, Apr 12.

– High winds across portions of the Central Plains, the Mid-Atlantic, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Appalachians, the Northern Plains, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Northeast, the Southern Appalachians, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Mon-Tue, Apr 13-Apr 14.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Great Lakes, the Northern Rockies, the Southern Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Sun-Thu, Apr 12-Apr 16.

– Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun-Mon, Apr 12-Apr 13.

– High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun-Mon, Apr 12-Apr 13.

– High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Tue-Wed, Apr 14-Apr 15.

– Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun-Wed, Apr 12-Apr 15.

Detailed Summary:

A upper-level energy over the Rockies by Monday and upper-level energy over Northern Mexico that will extend into the Texas Panhandle will aid in producing a deep upper-level trough over the Western part of the country. The southern energy will move northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes by Monday. Furthermore, an area of cold high pressure will build southward out of Western Canada moving southward to the Northern High Plains/Northern Rockies by Tuesday. The deep trough and cold high pressure at the surface will aid in developing an area of Much Below Normal Temperatures over parts of the Rockies/Plains into parts of the Mississippi Valley, from Sunday into Thursday. By Wednesday and Thursday the air mass will moderate so the Below Normal Temperatures will start to wane. The upper-level energy and upslope flow will aid in developing areas of Heavy Snow over the Central/Southern Rockies Sunday into Wednesday. Meanwhile, upper-level energy over Northern Mexico on Sunday will move northeastward to the Lower Great Lakes by Monday. An accompanying surface low over the Southern High Plains, Sunday, will roughly move northeastward to the Great Lakes by Monday and into Southeastern Canada by Tuesday. The accompanying front and moisture pooling along the boundary will aid in producing an area of Heavy Precipitation over parts of the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast on Sunday moving into parts of New England on Monday. Additional Heavy Rain will linger near the boundary over Florida on Tuesday into Wednesday. The dynamic system will aid in making the atmosphere unstable resulting in severe thunderstorms over the Central Gulf Coast eastward to the Southeast through Monday.

In Alaska, An upper-level ridging over the mainland on Sunday will as far north as the Far North on Sunday and again by Tuesday into Wednesday. The upper-level ridging will aid in producing and area of Much Above Normal Temperatures over parts of the Far North, likewise on Sunday into Wednesday. Additionally, Low pressure over the North Pacific will move into the Western Aleutians on Sunday. Another area of low pressure over the North Pacific on Tuesday will consolidate into one are of low pressure a long the southern edge of the Central Aleutians on Wednesday into Thursday. The developing strong pressure gradient will aid in producing an area of High Wind over the Aleutians on Tuesday into Wednesday. Low pressure and the associated front along with an accompanying plume of moisture will aid in producing an area of Heavy Precipitation over parts of eastern Kenai Peninsula, Kodiak Island, and Northern portion of the Alaska Peninsula on Sunday into Monday. The strong pressure gradient associated with the front and area of low pressure will aid in producing high wind over Kodiak Island Sunday into Monday.

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends. But it is still useful as it remains valid for the period of time it covers. Of course, all forecasts are subject to change. Later we show a map of the hazards. Perhaps we should show them together.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

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Tropical Events

This is now beyond the time of the year we pay special attention to Tropical Events other than the Western Pacific.

So I am replacing the large with three small maps but you can click on them to get larger versions. Even though they are small maps you should be able to tell if there is activity and If I see activity I will make the map where there is activity full size.

the Central Pacific.	the Eastern Pacific	the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Week Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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