January 3, 2020 Weather Impacts On Economic Activity – Autumn Reports

Written by Sig Silber

Drought continues not to be a problem. So I thought it might be fun to look at the summaries of the various Regions with respect to the key meteorological events this past Fall. And of course, we have our full set of regular weekly reports and, since we are now publishing on Fridays, our intermediate-term weather forecast covers 28 days and the first 14 days of the forecast update daily.

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Directory

The following article and video on the impact of Tariffs on garlic production in California might be of interest.

Autumn Summaries – I hope I did not miss anyone. Perhaps I should have provided the links to the full report. The summaries do not follow a strict format and some of the summary slides may be difficult to read. With enough time I could have improved that but I did not have that amount of time. So get what you can from these summaries. BUT YOU CAN CLICK ON THE SUMMARY SLIDE AND GET TO THE FULL REPORT BUT YOU MIGHT HAVE TO LOOK TO THE RIGHT AND CLICK A SECOND TIME.

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And then Precipitation

Here is the discussion that was released with the Week 3 – 4 forecast today.

The global tropical convective pattern remains weak, with ENSO-neutral conditions prevailing, an incoherent MJO signal, and a decaying Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Therefore, little contribution from the tropics to the downstream midlatitude pattern during the Week 3-4 period is evident in the statistical guidance. Dynamical models almost uniformly favor renewed MJO activity, however, with the enhanced phase crossing the Maritime Continent over the next two weeks at a high amplitude on the RMM-based MJO index. The weakening IOD signal effecting a change in the base state may partly explain the forecasted high amplitude signal, but should a robust MJO event develop and propagate to the Pacific, it could help promote a substantial late winter pattern change over North America. These impacts would occur largely after the Week 3-4 period.

Dynamical model 500mb height forecasts for Week 3-4 are remarkably consistent this week, both among the different model ensembles and through several runs of each model. The overall pattern described by the guidance is also consistent with the predicted Week-2 pattern, featuring a high amplitude ridge south of the Aleutians, Arctic air over Canada, a trough extending into the western CONUS which may promote cold air outbreaks in the West or across the Northern Plains, and a ridge over the Southeast. The CFS places the trough further east than the ECMWF, while the JMA keeps the cold air locked more in the West and Canada. The overall consistency among the dynamical model guidance allows for increased confidence of the forecast.

The Week 3-4 temperature outlook is based primarily on the autoblend of the CFS, ECMWF, and JMA dynamical models and the multiple linear regression (MLR) statistical tool that is based on ENSO, MJO, and long-term trends. Given the weak signals in the tropics, the trends are the largest contributor to the MLR forecast, and where the trends conflict with the dynamical model guidance, the dynamical models are favored. Enhanced chances for below-normal temperatures extend across much of Alaska except the North Slope, the western third of the CONUS, and the Northern Plains and upper Midwest. Dynamical models also indicate a potential for below-normal temperatures across northern New England. In contrast, above-normal temperatures are favored across Texas and along and east of the Mississippi River except New England. The area of greatest uncertainty is the Central and South-Central Plains, where long-term trends are positive (and thus reflected in the autoblend where dynamical model guidance is mixed), but the anticipated pattern leaves open the possibility for periods of cold air intrusion extending southward to the Central Plains.

The precipitation outlook is more sensitive to subtle differences in the forecast pattern, and therefore uncertainty is much higher than in the temperature outlook. The presence of a Southeast ridge favors northward advection of abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture ahead of a mean frontal boundary near the Mississippi River. Therefore, enhanced chances for above-median precipitation extend across the Southeast and Ohio River Valleys, extending as far north as southern New England and the eastern Great Lakes. The precipitation pattern across the western US is highly uncertain, with the ECMWF favoring enhanced moisture across California and the Great Basin, and the CFS and JMA drier. Strong negative trends in the MLR tilt the autoblend towards enhanced chances for below-median precipitation across Texas and the West Coast; however, equal chances for above- and below-median precipitation are maintained in this outlook. The dynamical models generally support an area of below-median precipitation across the Pacific Northwest, with enhanced chances for above-median precipitation across the Northern Rockies. The autoblend forecast favors above- (below-) median precipitation across northern and central Alaska (Alaska’s southern coast).

Sea surface temperatures remain above-normal in the vicinity of Hawaii, and both operational and SubX models support above-normal temperatures. Most of the guidance (other than the CFS) favors above-normal precipitation, with the highest probabilities across the southeastern islands.

Current Drought Conditions

Now we take a look at Thursday’s U.S. Drought Monitor Report.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a comprehensive way of understanding the drought situation for the U.S. It is issued every Thursday and reflects the conditions as of the prior Tuesday. Drought is defined as a moisture deficit bad enough to have social, environmental or economic effects. Thus, more factors than recent precipitation are considered and more information on how it is done is found at the end of this report.

U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Below is the map for just CONUS.

Last Week	This Week

Some might find this animation of twelve weeks of change useful;

The graphic below shows the one-week change in drought intensity. Yellow is bad. Green is good.

Now we show the week to week change information by region. The yellow is where the level of drought has been raised. The green is where the level of drought has been lowered.

Improvement in Kansas and degradation in western Wyoming

No change except one small area of improvement in Indiana.

No Change

Mostly improvement in Texas and Western Oklahoma

No Change

Improvement on Arizona and Degradation along the border of Idaho and Wyoming.

Here is the Discussion that was issued with the Drought Report. The Regional Headings can be clicked on to obtain maps and statistics.

This Week’s Drought Summary

An area of upper-level low pressure entered southern California by December 26 and then progressed east across the Four Corners region. This upper-level low resulted in heavy rain and high-elevation snow from southern California east to southwest Colorado and New Mexico. A surface low developed across the south-central Great Plains on December 28 with a subsequent track northeast to the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. Heavy snow fell to the northwest of this low pressure system, while moderate to heavy rainfall accompanied the cold front as it shifted east from the Great Plains to the East Coast. Following the heavy precipitation across the Pacific Northwest during mid to late December, precipitation average below normal during the final week of December. Enhanced onshore flow resulted in periods of heavy precipitation along the Alaska Panhandle, but longer-term precipitation deficits persist. A low pressure system and trailing front brought locally heavy rain and damaging winds to parts of the Hawaiian Islands this past week.

Northeast

Precipitation (0.5 to 2 inches) overspread this region on December 29 and 30. Heavy snow (6 to 12 inches) was reported in northern New England, while freezing rain accumulated up to one inch in extreme northern New York. A small area of abnormal dryness (DO) remains designated for parts of southern Delaware and the eastern shore of Maryland based on: 6-month deficits of 4 to 8 inches and 7-, 14-, and 28-day stream flows in the 10-24th percentile. Elsewhere, precipitation averaged at or above normal for the 30- to 90-day period.

Southeast

Following a very wet week which eliminated much of the lingering drought across the Southeast, drier weather returned to the region. The abnormal dryness (D0) area in northeast North Carolina was extended slightly more north in southeast Virginia. Otherwise, no other changes were needed after the major revision during the previous week. Based on 90-day percent of normal precipitation, moderate drought (D1) and abnormal dryness (D0) continues from the Florida Big Bend north to southwest Georgia. The current depiction of D0 and D1 across the Florida Peninsula is based on 90-day precipitation deficits along with 28-day stream flows.

South

As an upper-level trough ejected from the desert Southwest, a surface low developed over the southern Great Plains. Beneficial rainfall (more than 1 inch) resulted in improving conditions across the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma. Moderate (D1) to severe (D2) drought continues across southwest Oklahoma and adjacent areas of the Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas which received lighter rainfall amounts (0.75 inches of less). Changes to the drought depiction across the remainder of Texas included a slight reduction in D0/D1 in central and southwest parts of the state, based on recent rainfall and lack of short-term dryness. Although it was a dry week across deep southern Texas, a reassessment of indicators supported a slight reduction of severe (D2) drought. A small area of severe (D2) drought was added to Burleson County, based on 120-day indicators. On December 29, a cold front crossed the lower Mississippi Valley where 0.5 to 2 inches of rainfall occurred. The heaviest rain fell to the north and east of the ongoing D0 to D2 areas.

Midwest

A low pressure system and trailing cold front brought widespread rain and snow to this region on December 29 and 30. Abnormal dryness (D0) was added the previous week to parts of central Indiana based on 90-day precipitation deficits of 2 to 4 inches and 28-day stream flows below the 30th percentile. This D0 area was decreased slightly where more than 0.5 inch fell. Elsewhere, 90-day precipitation averages 150 to 200, or more, percent of normal across Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and the northwest two-thirds of Iowa.

High Plains

A low pressure system developed across the southern Great Plains on Dec 28 and then tracked northeast to Iowa and Minnesota. Along and northwest of the surface low track, beneficial precipitation (0.5 to 1.5 inches) fell from the western half of Kansas north to southern and eastern Nebraska. This recent precipitation prompted a 1 to 2-category improvements to the short-term drought areas in Kansas. A 2-category improvement was justified where more than 1 inch of precipitation occurred and 90-day precipitation is either at or above normal. However, severe drought (D2) continues west of Garden City and Liberal, Kansas. In contrast to the improving conditions for Kansas, abnormal dryness (D0) was extended north across western Wyoming where 90-day precipitation deficits are 2 to 6 inches. Drought impacts were modified to long-term only in southwest Colorado due to recent snowfall. Snow water content is running 125 to 135 percent of normal as of December 29, but 6-month SPI values support the severe drought (D2) category in southwest Colorado.

West

A vigorous upper-level trough crossed southern California and the desert Southwest from December 25 to 27. Widespread moderate to heavy rain and high-elevation snow (0.5 to 2 inches, liquid equivalent) accompanied this upper-level trough. Snowfall amounts exceeded two feet in the mountains of southern California, while 4 to 12 inches was recorded in the higher elevations of Arizona. This recent precipitation along with support from longer-term SPI values resulted in a 1-category improvement to Dx levels in parts of Arizona and southwest Utah. 180-day precipitation deficits remain the largest (more than 6 inches) across southwest Colorado.

Drier weather returned to the Pacific Northwest during the final week of December. Following the period of heavy precipitation during mid to late December, no changes were made to the ongoing abnormal dryness (D0) and short-term moderate drought (D1) areas. Water year to date (since October 1) precipitation deficits of more than 12 inches, 28-day stream flows in the lowest 10th percentile, and basin average snow water content less than 50 percent support the short-term moderate drought (D1) across parts of Oregon and Washington.

Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico

Multiple low pressure systems with onshore flow resulted in frequent daily precipitation along the Alaska Panhandle. Despite the good start to the water year, long-term deficits persist with consecutive poor water years in 2017-18 and 2018-19. Therefore, no changes were made to the ongoing long-term D0 and D1 areas in Alaska.

A low pressure system tracked west of Hawaii during late December. The trailing front, associated with this low pressure system, resulted in locally heavy rainfall (especially in Kauai). However, much of the rainfall occurred outside of ongoing drought areas. Any changes will be made in subsequent weeks after a more thorough analysis of rainfall observations and NDVI.

During the past week, locally more than 2 inches of rainfall occurred in southern Puerto Rico. However, an inch or less of rainfall was observed across the ongoing moderate (D1) drought area in eastern Puerto Rico. Coinciding with this D1 area, 28-day stream flows are generally near or below the 20th percentile and 90-day precipitation deficits exceed 8 inches.

Pacific Islands

During the Northern Hemisphere winter, the North Pacific subtropical high, and the low latitude Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), migrate south toward the equator. The seasonal migration brings drier subtropical trade winds to the northern portions of Micronesia and ITCZ rainfall to the southern regions. The weather conditions across the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) during this USDM week (12/25/19-12/31/19) consisted of a near-equatorial trough (ITCZ) across the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) and Marshall Islands (RMI), with a shear line and cold front accompanying the dry trades over the Marianas. A broad but weak circulation developed in the trough over the RMI and moved across eastern and central FSM, with its surface convergence aided by upper-level divergence later in the week. Trade-wind convergence brought showers to parts of the RMI and Palau. South of the equator, the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) stretched from near Micronesia southeastward toward and beyond the Samoan Islands. Circulations formed within the SPCZ trough, including one which developed into Tropical Cyclone Sarai (04P) west of American Samoa.

Satellite-based estimates of 7-day precipitation (QPE) showed a band of 2 to 4+ inches of rainfall across parts of Yap and Chuuk States, with little to no rain north and south of this band. An area of 1-4 inches extended across the eastern FSM into parts of the RMI, with lesser amounts north and south. The satellite QPE showed a large area of 4+ inches stretching south of the equator from Micronesia to near, west, and south of the Samoan Islands, with 2-4 inches indicated across American Samoa.

In the Republic of Palau, four-fifths of an inch (0.86 inch) of rain fell at the Palau International Airport. But with previous weeks wet and the monthly total at 9.86 inches (which is above the 8-inch monthly minimum needed to meet most water needs), D-Nothing continued at Palau.

In the Marianas, the last 3 or 4 weeks have been dry (below the 1-inch weekly minimum) for Guam and Rota and (depending on the observation site) Saipan. Guam had a monthly total of 1.46 inches, which is drier than the previous driest December (2.17 inches in 1992). Less than two tenths of an inch of rain was recorded this week at Guam (0.06) and Rota (0.13), and a third of an inch at Saipan (0.34). D-Nothing continued this week because local NWS personnel reported vegetation is still very green for Guam and Rota and topsoil is still moist, but D0-S will be considered (based on precipitation percentiles and weekly minimums) if the dryness continues.

In the FSM, Fananu has been missing for the last couple months, so a drought analysis could not be made. The NWS station at Yap did not have data past December 27, so that station’s data could not be used since 4 days were missing. The drought analysis for the Yap archipelago was based on data at Rumung and North Fanif. Based on the data available at the time of this analysis, the week was wet at northern stations like Chuuk (7.80 inches) and Pohnpei (4.28), but dry at southern and eastern stations like Kosrae (0.24), Kapingamarangi (0.11), and Nukuoro (0.08). Lukonor was wet with 2.42 inches of rain. No rain was measured at North Fanif and Rumung, but these two stations had 8.41 inches and 6.24 inches, respectively, for the month. D-Nothing continued across the FSM. However, this week marks the third consecutive dry (less than the 2-inch weekly minimum needed to meet most water needs) at Kapingamarangi, so D0-S may be considered if the dryness continues.

With the observer off-island, Utirik was missing this week and could not be analyzed. Jaluit (0.33 inch) and Majuro (0.99) were dry this week (less than the 2-inch weekly minimum) while Ailinglapalap (2.40), Kwajalein (3.15), Mili (5.23), and Wotje (3.50) were wet. With this week wet, last week’s D0-S was changed to D-Nothing this week at Kwajalein and Wotje. Even though Majuro has recorded 13.03 inches of rain for December, the last 3 weeks were dry and the reservoir level has steadily declined throughout the month. The December 31 reservoir storage was 24.6 million gallons, or 68% of maximum, which is below the 80% threshold for drought concerns. Based on the recent dryness and on the reservoir level, the status at Majuro was changed from D-Nothing to D0-S. D-Nothing continued at the rest of the RMI stations.

The SPCZ gave American Samoa a wet week. Based on data received so far (through December 30), Pago Pago reported 5.23 inches of rain and the automated stations at Siufaga Ridge and Toa Ridge received 3.97 and 3.54 inches, respectively. With the last several weeks and month (16.77 inches at Pago Pago) wet (more than the 1-inch weekly and 4-inch monthly minimums), D-Nothing continued at Tutuila.

Virgin Islands

A couple frontal boundaries brought showers to the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) during this USDM week (12/25/19-12/31/19), mostly to the northern islands. Along with the fronts, moisture and trade winds dominated the lower levels of the atmosphere, while drier air and a building subtropical ridge influenced the upper levels, especially during the last half of the week.

Radar-based estimates of rainfall for the 7 days ending at 12z on Tuesday, and a 7-day analysis provided by the San Juan National Weather Service, depicted 2 or more inches of rain across much of St. John Island and western parts of St. Thomas, half an inch or more over eastern St. Thomas and western St. Croix, and little to no rain over eastern St. Croix.

Based on data through December 30 or 31, the Henry Rohlsen AP had two-thirds of an inch (0.67) of rain this week, while the Christiansted 1.8 ESE CoCoRaHS station measured 0.66 inch. The station at East Hill reported 0.62 inch for the week and 2.23 inches for the month, or 77% of normal for the month. The Henry Rohlsen AP monthly total of 1.76 inches is 61% of normal and (based on xmacis data) ranks December 2019 as the 14th driest December in 60 years of data; this translates to the 23rd percentile or a D0 level of dryness. The October-December (through December 30, 2019) total of 5.51 inches ranks as the fourth driest October-December, or 6th percentile (D2 level); the July-December 2019 total (16.63 inches) ranks 9th driest (15th percentile, D1); the April-December total (23.89 inches) ranks 14th driest (23rd percentile, D0); and the January-December total (24.70 inches) ranks 8th driest out of 63 years (12th percentile, D1). The USGS Adventure 28 well is showing no recovery; the last several months have had a declining trend, but the groundwater level held steady this week. The USDM status for St. Croix continued at D1-SL on this week’s map.

Based on data through December 30, the Cyril E King AP station reported 2.01 inches of rain for this week, with a month-to-date total of 3.82 inches which is 133% of normal. The year-to-date total is 36.02 inches with a departure of -3.24 inches or 92% of normal. The Anna’s Retreat 2.5 ESE CoCoRaHS station reported 0.76 inch of rain for the week. The USGS Grade School 3 well is lower than September 2019, but the groundwater level increased 3.4 feet this week. With these wet conditions, the USDM status for St. Thomas was changed to D-Nothing.

The volunteer station at Windswept Beach reported 1.22 inches of rain for the week (through December 30), bringing the monthly total to 5.86 inches and ranking December 2019 the sixth wettest December in 36 years of data. However, earlier months were dry. November-December 2019 had 7.80 inches, ranking as the 14th driest (which translates to the 39th percentile). October-December had 11.80 inches, ninth driest, and 25th percentile (in the D0 range). September-December 2019 had 15.79 inches of rain and ranked as the fourth driest such period (11th percentile, or D1). For the year, 2019 had 39.82 inches and ranked 8th driest (22nd percentile, D0). The USGS Susannaberg well is locally low, but the groundwater level rose slightly (half a foot) this week. Based on recent wetness but longer-term dryness, the status for St. John was changed from D0-S to D0-L.

Looking Ahead

During the next 5 days (January 2 to 6), another surface low is forecast to develop across the southern Great Plain on January 2. This surface low and trailing cold are likely to bring heavy rainfall (1 to 3 inches) to the lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley with more modest amounts (1 inch or less) along the East Coast. A low pressure system with onshore flow is expected to bring rain and high-elevation snow to the Pacific Northwest, beginning of January 4. Although rainfall of around an inch is forecast along the Texas Gulf Coast during the next week, dry weather is likely across the remainder of Texas. Mild temperatures are forecast to prevail across the continental U.S. during the first week of January 2020, while bitterly cold temperatures persist throughout Alaska.

The CPC 6-10 day extended range outlook (January 6 to 10, 2020) indicates a slight tilt in the odds for above normal precipitation across much of the central and northeastern U.S. Below normal precipitation is favored for the Southeast along with California and the Southwest. The highest confidence in the temperature outlook exists across Alaska where below normal temperatures are likely to persist into the second week of January. Below normal temperatures are favored for the Great Basin and Rockies, while a warming trend is anticipated across the south-central and eastern U.S.

Some may find the below way of looking at things useful and I hope these graphics are not too small to read. I did not make them so you could click on them individually but you can click on the whole graphic and it may enlarge. But I think you get the picture. It has been a rapid onset and demise. When you read these graphics, remember that the older graphics are not the drought conditions that existed then but the change from then until now.

Our usual source for this graphic is NRCS which did not publish this week. But we provide the one week and one month map in our report and could have provided the others but they do not change that much from week to week.

Let’s focus on the change between December 3 2019 and December 31, 2019 i.e. one month.

Focusing on the Intermountain West

Drought Forecasts

These two forecasts (Monthly and Season) are issued by the same agency but to obtain them you need to access two different links here and here.

Here is the Monthly Drought Outlook which was updated on December 31, 2019.

Here is the full discussion released with the new forecast.

Discussion for the Monthly Drought Outlook

Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for January, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), the Week 3-4 outlooks and tools from CPC, dynamical models at the monthly time scale, the 384-hour total precipitation forecasts from several runs of the GFS, and January Climatology. Initial conditions are based on the December 24, 2019 U.S. Drought Monitor.

Only two small areas of drought remain in the Southeast Region, both in Florida. Precipitation early in the period and odds favoring surplus precipitation during the second week of January led to a forecast of removal in the Florida Panhandle. Farther south in the lower Florida Peninsula, precipitation should be less robust, and with January being one of the driest months of the year climatologically, even above-normal precipitation is not likely to significantly improve drought conditions there, especially with enhanced chances for a warmer-than-normal January.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Southeast Region.

The Northeast region is drought-free currently, and at this time there is no reason to expect any drought development by the end of January.

Forecast confidence is high for the Northeast Region.

The Midwest Region is also drought-free currently, with just a small area of abnormal dryness noted in central Indiana. Marginal moisture deficits for the past 90 days exist only there and in part of northwestern Ohio, portions of northern and western Missouri, and adjacent Iowa. Surplus precipitation is favored over much of Minnesota and the northern Great Lakes early in the period, and odds lean toward above-normal amounts regionwide the second week of January. There is no discernable reason to expect drought development by the end of January at this time.

Forecast confidence is high for the Midwest Region.

In the Southern Region, drought covers small areas in east-central and northwestern Louisiana, a significant swath from southern through central and northeastern Texas, part of the west-central Red River Valley, and portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle. Climatologically, this is a dry time of the year in the central and southern Plains, outside eastern Texas. In north-central and northwestern Oklahoma, only about two percent of annual precipitation falls in January on average, increasing southward and eastward to around eight percent in eastern Texas. But despite climatology, unseasonably heavy precipitation early in the period should bring some improvement to parts of southwestern Okalhoma and the adjacent Texas Panhandle, and in the northeastern Oklahoma Panhandle. In addition, small parts of central and southeastern Texas should see improvement with short-term precipitation. Farther east, the January outlook favors above-normal precipitation in eastern Louisiana, leading to a forecast of drought removal there. In most drought areas, however, drought persistence is anticipated, with limited expansion expected in part of central Texas. Short-term precipitation is not expected to be as robust in these areas, and given the dry climatology, substantial improvement seems unlikely.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southern Region.

A broad area of drought stretches from southern and western Colorado and adjacent Kansas in the High Plains Region, westward across a large part of Utah and the northern tiers of Arizona and New Mexico in the Western Region, so the narratives specific to these two regions are combined here. This is a very dry time of year in southwestern Kansas, eastern Colorado, and eastern New Mexico, where only one to four percent of annual precipitation typically falls during January. The seasonality becomes less dry moving westward, however, and the western half of Colorado, most of Utah, northwestern New Mexico, and most of Arizona usually accumulate five to fifteen percent of annual precipitation during the first month of the year. Regardless, useasonably heavy precipitation in the short-term should bring improvement to southwestern Kansas and adjacent Colorado while more gradual improvement, in concert with recent trends, should help dryness ease in part of northern Arizona and adjacent southwestern Utah. Improvement is also expected near the Four Corners, where mild reductions in moisture deficits are expected in an area already on the cusp of improving from severe drought to moderate drought on the Drought Monitor. Elsewhere from Arizona and Utah eastward into Kansas, drought persistence is forecast, as slight reductions in moisture deficits, should they occur, likely won’t be sufficient to noticeably improve conditions. This is particularly true in eastern Colorado and adjacent areas, where January is dry climatologically. Farther northwest, in the northern Intermountain West and Pacific Northwest, swaths of moderate drought developed during December and are expected to persist through January, though with low confidence. Moderate to heavy precipitation is possible in the short-term, but in this region where January is among the wettest months of the year, it is not expected to be enough to substantially reduce moisture shortages or improve higher-elevation snowpack relative to normal in the next few weeks.

Forecast confidence is high for the central High Plains, moderate in and near the Four Corners Region, and low in the Northwest.

Drought currently covers part of southeastern Alaska, and though January is a relatively wet time of year, precipitation is expected to be insufficient to improve this area of long-term drought by the end of January. Persistence is also forecast in southeastern Puerto Rico, though with low confidence given a lack of cohesive indicators. Finally, precipitation is expected to increase in the areas of drought across central and southeastern Hawaii, bringing widespread improvement or removal there.

Forecast confidence is moderate for Alaska and Hawaii, and low Puerto Rico.

Here is the Three-Month Forecast which was issued on December 19, 2019

Floods

Floods remain a concern but only in a limited area.

Last Week	Current Week

Let’s see if this animation works. It shows the pattern for August and September.

Wildfires

Current Wildfire Risk. This is a new model that updates daily by NOAA (but not automatically in this article) to show the short-term risk.

Click here to update. Red is high risk, blue is low risk. This graphic updates daily but you have to click on the link provided to get the updates More information can be found here.

This explains the model a bit.

Looking out another month.

Crop Progress

We are not receiving weekly reports at this point. They may be available but mostly we expect to receive and report on monthly reports during the winter months.

International

A map helps and is not always available but fortunately, it was available this week.

Major Sources of Information

In the box are shown the major resources we use. We will not be using them all each week but the reader is welcome to refer to these resources.

Background Information

The sequence of drought occurrence and impacts for commonly accepted drought types. All droughts originate from a deficiency of precipitation or meteorological drought but other types of drought and impacts cascade from this deficiency. (Source: NDMC)

Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln