December 20, 2019 Weather Impacts On Economic Activity – Too Wet, Too Cold

Written by Sig Silber

Drought continues not to be a problem. But parts of the U.S. have been suffering from too much precipitation. Tonight we look at one of those Regions. We also look at the state rankings with respect to temperature and precipitation through November. And of course, we have our full set of regular weekly reports and, since we are now publishing on Fridays, our intermediate-term weather forecast covers 28 days and the first 14 days of the forecast update daily.

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Directory

November Year to Date State Rankings. States are ranked relative to their 125 year history.

First Temperature

Now precipitation which was fairly normal.

Sometimes looking at Climate Divisions provides a more detailed view.

Focus on North Central High Plains

NOAA Regions

So I think we are talking about mostly the High Plains in the slides I extracted from this webinar which was very recent. But as usually is the case there is interest from neighboring regions so there could be some slides that overlap a bit.

This may explain part of it.

and at harvest time.

So what were the impacts and some of this the author said came from social media.

Some interesting information on lake levels was provided so I present that next.

Some Trends

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And then Precipitation

Here is the discussion that was released with the Week 3 – 4 forecast today.

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jan 04 2020-Fri Jan 17 2020

Intraseasonal variability in the tropics remains weak as there are still no strong MJO or other equatorial wave signals. The Indian Ocean Dipole remains strongly positive, although its amplitude has decreased by about 50% since the beginning of December. ENSO neutral conditions also persist; the SST anomalies in the Nino 1+2, 3, and 4 regions haven’t changed much over the past month. Since there are no strong intraseasonal signals to use as Week 3/4 predictors, this forecast is based entirely on dynamical model guidance.

Except for the CFS, the Week 3/4 forecast is fairly consistent throughout the models. The CFS features strong anomalous ridging over the Gulf of Alaska and anomalous troughing over northeastern North America. This upper-level height pattern then translates to above normal temperatures over Alaska and below normal temperatures over much of the CONUS. However, the negative temperature anomalies are lower magnitude today in the CFS than they were earlier this week, which suggests that the model is trending warmer.

The ECMWF and JMA models, as well as a number of SubX models, forecast weaker troughing over Canada and suggest a warmer pattern over the eastern CONUS than the CFS does. Our calibration routine also lowers the cold probabilities in the CFS so that they appear more in-line with the ECMWF and JMA, which suggests that the CFS historically over-forecasts warmth in the Northeast. Therefore, today’s temperature forecast is based on a blend between the calibrated ECMWF and JMA. Above normal temperatures are favored in the Southeast and below normal temperatures are favored in the Southwest. There is an equal chance (EC) for above and below normal temperatures throughout the Northeast, Plains, and Northwest since the models disagree on the placement and amplitude of the trough over Canada.

The temperature forecast in Alaska favors above normal temperatures in the southwestern mainland and Aleutians and equal chances of above and below normal temperatures throughout the rest of the state because of model uncertainty regarding the placement and amplitude of a negative height anomaly over the Polar region. The ECMWF forecasts below normal temperatures throughout most of the state, but other models forecast above normal temperatures instead. This uncertainty seems tied to potential sea ice development throughout the next two weeks, which could play a significant role in the temperature throughout the north.

The precipitation forecast is anomalously consistent throughout the models this week. Nearly all of our guidance, including the CFS, ECMWF, and JMA, have some variation of positive precipitation anomalies in the Southeast and coastal Alaska, and negative precipitation anomalies in the Northwest.Our forecast reflects these solutions. The CFS and ECMWF also hint at anomalous dryness throughout the Midwest, but our confidence in this is too low to include on our forecast map and its position will ultimately be a function of the position of the mean storm track during mid-January.

Weekly sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies remain above average in the vicinity of Hawaii and dynamical models generally show near to above normal height anomalies in the region. Our forecast is for a 60% chance of above average temperatures and above median rainfall throughout the islands.

Current Drought Conditions

Now we take a look at Thursday’s U.S. Drought Monitor Report.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a comprehensive way of understanding the drought situation for the U.S. It is issued every Thursday and reflects the conditions as of the prior Tuesday. Drought is defined as a moisture deficit bad enough to have social, environmental or economic effects. Thus, more factors than recent precipitation are considered and more information on how it is done is found at the end of this report.

U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Below is the map for just CONUS.

Last Week	This Week

Some might find this animation of twelve weeks of change useful;

The graphic below shows the one-week change in drought intensity. Yellow is bad. Green is good.

Now we show the week to week change information by region. The yellow is where the level of drought has been raised. The green is where the level of drought has been lowered.

Some improvement in Colorado

No Change

Some very slight improvement

Slightly more degradation than improvement

Mostly improvement except in Eastern North Carolina

You can see the degradation in the Northwest with some improvement in Colorado and also northern Nevada.

Here is the Discussion that was issued with the Drought Report. The Regional Headings can be clicked on to obtain maps and statistics.

This Week’s Drought Summary

A series of Pacific fronts brought welcome moisture to the Northwest (from northern California northward into Washington), but even with this precipitation, the Water Year to Date (WYTD; since Oct. 1) basin average precipitation and Snow Water Content (SWC) were still well below normal (30-70%). Farther east, frigid Arctic air (weekly average temperatures up to 15 degree F below normal) was bottled up in the northern Plains and upper Midwest (and central Canada), while the West, South, and East observed above-normal readings (weekly temperature anomalies + 3 to 6 degree F). As the fronts progressed eastward, they slowed and waves of low pressure developed along the fronts, generating widespread rains (1-4 inches, locally to 8 inches) in the Southeast, mid-Atlantic, and along coastal New England. In the colder air to the north, the precipitation fell as snow, blanketing parts of the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys, northern Appalachians, eastern Great Lakes region, and interior New England with light to moderate totals (2-6 inches). In contrast, the Southwest, Plains, and western Corn Belt were mainly dry. In Alaska, above-normal temperatures prevailed across the state, with decent precipitation observed along the southern coast. Shower activity increased across the eastern Hawaiian Islands, allowing for some improvements on the Big Island.

Northeast

With much of the region experiencing at or above-normal precipitation (wetness) in both the short- and long-terms and above-to much-above normal USGS stream flows, the only area with drought or abnormal dryness was parts of the Delmarva Peninsula (D0). And with this week’s widespread light to moderate precipitation (0.5-2 inches, locally to 3.5 inches), it was assured that there would be no D0 expansion or new D1development. In the Delmarva D0 area, however, even though 1.5-2 inches of rain fell, there were still some persistent medium-term deficits (4-8 inches at 6-months). In addition, with lingering hydrologic impacts (average 7-, 14-, and 28-day USGS stream flows in the 10-24th percentile), some D0 was left where the largest deficits and lower stream flows still existed.

Southeast

A slow-moving cold front with waves of low pressure developing along it produced moderate to heavy rains (2-4 inches, locally to 8 inches) in most of Alabama, Georgia, and the western halves of the Carolinas. This heavy precipitation fell on much of the D0-D2 area of north-central Georgia and west-central South Carolina, effectively eliminating all short-term deficits in South Carolina and greatly reducing the deficiencies in Georgia. As a result, a 2-category improvement was made in west-central South Carolina, and a 1-category improvement occurred in north-central Georgia. Similarly, southeastern Alabama, northwestern Florida Panhandle, and southeastern Georgia saw a 1-cat reduction in drought as heavy rains also eliminated or greatly diminished short-term deficiencies. Heavy showers along Florida’s Atlantic Coast eased short-term D0 there. In contrast, the rains (less than 0.5 inches) missed portions of eastern North Carolina, the central coast of South Carolina, and extreme southern Florida, increasing 60- and 90-day shortages that required the development of new D0 in the first two areas and an expansion of D1 in the latter region.

South

While western sections were dry (Oklahoma, western two-thirds of Texas, western Arkansas), precipitation gradually increased across eastern sections, with scattered lines of showers and thunderstorms dropping light to moderate totals (1 to 3 inches) on parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. The rains were enough to provide some slight improvement in northern and central Louisiana (D0 and D1 shrunken), but much lighter amounts in southwestern Arkansas and eastern Texas, along with slightly above-normal temperatures, somewhat increased the area of D0-D2 in those 2 areas. In western Oklahoma, conditions were maintained as November and December precipitation is normally quite low this time of year (each month contributes to 1-2% of the annual total), and seasonable temperatures helped.

Midwest

Precipitation was generally light (0.25-0.5 inches) across the Midwest, with most of it falling as snow. The upper Midwest was especially cold, with weekly temperatures averaging 5 to 15 degrees F below normal, while the remainder of the region was slightly below normal. The Midwest continued to remain drought-free as most locations were either normal or wet in both the short- and long-terms. There were some spotty areas with subnormal precipitation at 30-, 60-, and 90-days, but they varied in location and time. An area to watch for D0 development could be northwestern Missouri and southern Iowa (dry at 30- and 60-days), although they were wet at 90-days. With decent widespread top and subsoil moisture, low temperatures, frozen soils, minimal evaporation, near to above normal stream flows, and fairly good snow cover, it could be a while before drought re-emerges in the Midwest.

High Plains

Most of the Plains saw little or no precipitation this week, with some light snow falling across North Dakota, southeast Wyoming, Nebraska, and eastern Kansas (for Colorado, refer to the West). The frigid Arctic air was mostly confined to the northern Plains and upper Midwest (weekly TANs -5 to -10 degrees F), although some colder air spilled southward and eastward into the central Plains and Midwest. With this time of the year being climatologically dry, typically cold with little or no evaporation, and with frozen soils, it is a difficult time for drought to develop and expand in most northern areas. Plus, all short- to long-term indices are near to above normal (wet) in the northern Plains. Farther south, however, much drier conditions existed in southwestern Kansas (D2 to D3), especially during the 3- to 6-month range. After 1 to 2 category deteriorations were made the past 4 weeks, no changes were made here this week.

West

After several wet weeks in the Southwest (and much improvement), tranquil weather returned to most of the region. With SNOTEL WYTD basin average precipitation and SWE values in the Southwest generally at or above normal, this region was generally left unchanged. The exceptions to this was across northern Nevada and southern Idaho where light to moderate precipitation (0.5-2 inches) fell, producing positive SPIs (wet) at 1-, 2-, 3-,4-, 6-months, and beyond, along with above-normal USGS stream flows. As a result, D0 was removed in these 2 areas. In northern Utah and most of Colorado, light to moderate precipitation continued to provide drought relief, especially in the central and southern Rockies where a 1-category improvement was made in central Colorado and extreme northern New Mexico. The area of northern Utah was already drought-free.

In contrast, the Northwest (from northern California northward into Washington) finally received welcome and widespread precipitation (2-4 inches along the coast and in the Cascades and Sierra Nevada, locally to 10 inches in extreme northwestern California), but this Water Year has seen far too few weeks like this. This situation is further exacerbated by the fact that this is the wet season (large normal totals) so that even light precipitation can quickly accumulate huge deficits. Thus, even with this week’s precipitation, many stations SPIs at 30-, 60-, 90-days, and longer time periods were at D2-D4 levels; USGS 1-, 7-, 14-, and 28-day average stream flows were at near- or record lows (tenth percentile or less); 90-day deficits exceeded a foot (and more) in western Washington and Oregon; SNOTEL basin average WYTD precipitation ranged between 34-60% and Dec. 18 SWC was between 27-65%. Accordingly, D1 was introduced to the Washington and Oregon Cascades, northeastern Oregon, and northern and southwestern Idaho where the driest tools converged. In addition, D0 was expanded into central Washington, central Idaho, and western Montana.

Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico

In Alaska, another week of above-normal temperatures (weekly TANs +5 to 20 degrees F) and light to moderate precipitation (1-4 inches, locally to 12 inches) along the southern coast maintained conditions there. An exception was on the eastern Kenai Peninsula where 6-12 inches of precipitation effectively erased the D0(S) there, although the western section observed much lower totals (0.5-2 inches), and D0 remained there. To the east, most southeastern Alaskan Panhandle stations received near to below normal December precipitation, but mountain snow accumulations have been below normal with the milder conditions, limiting the amount of snow melt inflow into hydroelectric reservoirs.

In Hawaii, rainfall has increased across many of the windward areas, along with some of the leeward sides. The FSA reported that the South Point area of the Big Island had improved, thus a 1-cat improvement was made. On the northeast side of the Big Island, recent rainfall over parts of Hamakua and North Hilo Districts also improved conditions, so the D0-D1 gradient was shifted northwest. Elsewhere, NDVI data showed that conditions have deteriorated over Lanai, so D0 was replaced by D1. The remaining islands were left as is.

In Puerto Rico, heavy rains (2-4 inches, locally to 10 inches) fell across eastern third of the island, somewhat shrinking the D0 and D1 areas there. Although short-term deficits remained, the rains were enough to markedly increase root zone soil saturation (as of Dec. 15), and D1 was improved to D0 where more than 4 inches fell and root zone saturation exceeded 80%. Similarly, D0 was removed along the northeastern coast where more than 3 inches of rain fell, and 60- to 90-day surpluses now existed.

Pacific Islands

During this USDM week (12/11/19-12/17/19), high pressure and strong trade-wind flow dominated northern Micronesia, especially the Marianas, while a near-equatorial trough persisted across southwestern Micronesia and other surface troughs developed over eastern portions of southern Micronesia. Convergence in the trade-wind flow was created by surges in the trade winds, while weak circulations developed in the southern and eastern troughs. Upper-level divergence occasionally enhanced showers generated by the surface convergence. South of the equator, a surface trough lingered near the Samoan Islands throughout the week.

Satellite-based estimates of 7-day precipitation (QPE) showed bands of 2+ inches of rain, with locally 4+ inches, across parts of Palau, western and eastern parts of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), and southern parts of the Marshall Islands (RMI). Areas of 1-2 inches spread southward to the equator. Little to no widespread rainfall was indicated on the QPE across the Marianas and northern RMI. Areas of 1+ inches of rainfall, with locally 2-4 inches, were indicated across much of the Samoan Island region.

With 2.07 inches of rain for this week and 6.53 inches so far this month, Palau is wetter than the weekly and monthly (through half-way point in the month) minimums needed to meet most water needs, and it has been wet (above monthly minimum) for the previous 6 months, so D-Nothing continued.

In the Marianas, the last 2 weeks have been dry (below weekly minimum) for Guam and Rota and (depending on the observation site) Saipan. But 3 weeks ago it was wet, and the previous several months have been wet, so D-Nothing continued. But these 3 stations will be watched for D0-S if the dryness continues.

In the FSM, Fananu has been missing for the last couple months and Pingelap has been missing for at least a month, so an analysis could not be made for these two locations. Based on data received so far this week, it was wet (more than the 2-inch weekly minimum) at Pohnpei (5.31 inches) and Kosrae (2.90) but dry at the remaining FSM stations. Lukonor reported 0.77 inch of rain and Woleai 0.71 inch (with 1 day missing), and both stations have been dry for the last 2-3 weeks and for several months before, so D0-S continued. For most of the remaining stations, this week marked the second consecutive dry week, but prior weeks and months were wet, so D-Nothing continued. However, some of them will be watched for D0-S if the dryness continues. For example, this was the third consecutive dry week at Nukuoro; D0-S was not added this week because 3 weeks ago (11/27-12/3) the rainfall total was 1.98 inches – while technically less than the 2-inch weekly minimum, it was close and basically still a “wet” week. But if next week is dry, then that would make 4 consecutive “dry” weeks.

Most of the RMI stations were dry this week. Three exceptions were Jaluit (2.40 inches for the week), Ailinglapalap (2.29 inches), and Utirik (2.89 inches). This week marked the second consecutive dry week at Kwajalein and Wotje, but previous weeks and months were wet. The latest (December 11) report for the Majuro reservoirs showed storage at 31.088 million gallons, which is 86.4% of maximum and well above the 80% threshold for drought concern. D-Nothing continued at all of the RMI stations.

It was a wet (more than the 1-inch weekly minimum) week at Pago Pago (2.57 inches) and the automated stations at Siufaga Ridge (1.68) and Toa Ridge (1.73). With this and previous weeks and months wet, D0-S continued at Tutuila.

Virgin Islands

The weather conditions across the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) during this USDM week (12/11/19-12/17/19) were influenced mostly by the North Atlantic High. The strong surface high over the Atlantic drove easterly trade winds across the USVI which brought low-level moisture with them. Trade-wind showers tracked mostly across the northern islands and the showers were enhanced occasionally by a nearby upper-level trough.

Radar-based estimates of rainfall for the 7 days ending at 12z on Tuesday depicted 2 or more inches of rain across much of St. John island and eastern St. Thomas, about an inch on western St. Thomas and western St. Croix, and half an inch or less across eastern St. Croix.

The Henry Rohlsen AP had only 0.14 inch of rain this week, while the Christiansted 1.8 ESE CoCoRaHS station measured 0.90 inch and the Christiansted 4.1 ESE CoCoRaHS station measured 0.86 inch. The station at East Hill reported 0.72 inch for the week and 1.14 inches for the month, or 66% of normal for the month. AHPS estimates for 7-day precipitation showed a gradient across the island, with the western end wetter (over an inch) than the eastern end (less than 0.25 inch). The USGS Adventure 28 well is showing no recovery and is still getting lower. NDMC’s computation of the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) for Rohlsen AP and East Hill showed little change from the values for last week, so the USDM status for St. Croix continued at D1-SL.

AHPS radar estimates show most of the island of St. Thomas wet for the last 7 days, with rainfall estimates ranging from an inch over the west to 2 inches in the east. The Cyril E King AP station reported 0.83 inch of rain for this week, with a month-to-date total of 1.65 inches which is slightly less than normal. The year-to-date total is 33.85 inches with a departure of -4.24 inches or 89% of normal. The Anna’s Retreat 2.5 ESE CoCoRaHS station reported 1.60 inches of rain for the week. The USGS Grade School 3 well is still low, but it rose 1.3 feet this week. The NDMC computations of this week’s SPI for King AP showed improvement at the 1-month time scale but little to no change at the 2- to 12-month time scales. Moderate drought is still evident for the last 60 days and abnormal dryness at the 12-month time scale, so D0-S continued on St. Thomas.

According to AHPS radar estimates, 2 inches or more of rain fell across most of the island of St. John this week. The station at Windswept Beach reported 2.72 inches for December 11-16, and the USGS Susannaberg well is still locally low, but it rose a foot this week. Windswept Beach had a monthly total precipitation of 3.47 inches, which is about 179% of the long-term average for the first half of December. But November was so dry that the November 1-December 16 total of 5.41 inches is still only 59% of average for that time period, and the station is below average (62%) for October 1-December 16 and for the last 3 months (63% for September 1-December 16). This week’s rain improved the SPI, but it is still in the D0 range for the last 3 months and last 12 months. As a result, the USDM status for St. John was improved just one category, to D0-S.

Looking Ahead

During the next 5 days (December 19-23), most of the lower 48 States will be tranquil (dry), except for heavy precipitation (more than 4 inches) in the Pacific Northwest (from northern California northward), and in the southeastern quarter of the Nation (2-5 inches in the central and eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coasts). If this rain occurs, parts of Florida may close in or break their record high December amount, effectively wiping away any existing drought. The upper and eastern Great Lakes region should see snow showers along favored locations. 5-day temperatures should average above-normal for much of the contiguous U.S.

The CPC 6-10 day outlook (December 24-28) favors above-normal precipitation across the Southwest, Plains, and upper Midwest, and in southern and eastern Alaska. Subnormal precipitation is likely along the Atlantic Coast and Montana. Temperatures are expected to average below-normal in the Far West and Alaska, with good odds for unseasonably mild readings in the eastern half of the Nation.

Some may find the below way of looking at things useful and I hope these graphics are not too small to read. I did not make them so you could click on them individually but you can click on the whole graphic and it may enlarge. But I think you get the picture. It has been a rapid onset and demise. When you read these graphics, remember that the older graphics are not the drought conditions that existed then but the change from then until now.

Let’s focus on the change between November 19, 2019 and December 17, 2019 i.e. one month.

Focusing on the Intermountain West

Drought Forecasts

These two forecasts (Monthly and Season) are issued by the same agency but to obtain them you need to access two different links here and here.

Here is the Monthly Drought Outlook which was updated on November 30, 2019.

Here is the Three-Month Forecast which was issued on November 21, 2019

Here is the discussion that was issued with this update.

Discussion for the Seasonal Drought Outlook

Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) included the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for January through March 2020 (JFM), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), the Week 3-4 outlooks and tools from CPC, dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scales, the 384-hour total precipitation forecasts from several runs of the GFS, climatology for the JFM season, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The drought areas on the U.S. Drought Monitor, valid on December 17, were used. ENSO-neutral is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a 50 to 55 percent chance of ENSO-neutral continuing into much of summer 2020.

A large storm early in the period should impact the limited existing drought in the Southeast Region. Several inches of rain should soak areas from the central Gulf Coast eastward across northern Florida, southern Georgia, and the southern Carolinas, likely eliminating the areas of drought from the Florida Panhandle northward. Farther south, the system should bring moderate to heavy rain to southern Florida, but totals should remain under two inches away from the Atlantic Coast. Climatologically, JFM is a relatively dry time of year in southern Florida, so precipitation deficits won’t accumulate rapidly in the storm’s wake; however, odds favor subnormal JFM rainfall accompanied by above-normal temperatures; given the antecedent dryness, a somewhat expanded area of drought is expected to result by the end of the period, though conditions may fluctuate with time, especially given the moderate to heavy rain expected in the short-term.

Forecast confidence is high for the Southeast Region outside southern Florida, where confidence is low.

The Northeast Region remains drought-free, but a small abnormally dry area was analyzed in the Middle Atlantic States. Some indicators show an enhanced chance for drought development in and near the current dry region, but drought emerges slowly here during the colder time of year, and no drought is forecast to develop by the end of March 2020.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Northeast Region.

The Midwest Region is drought-free, with most areas receiving abundant precipitation. There are no indications that any drought will develop by the end of March.

Forecast confidence is high for the Midwest Region.

In the Southern Region, drought should improve across northeastern Texas and central Louisiana, but persist farther west from Deep South Texas to the Red River Valley. There are enhanced chances for surplus precipitation regionwide through the end of December, but below-normal precipitation is favored thereafter in central and southern Texas. Thus, drought is expected to persist there, and expand into adjacent areas. Farther north, the JFM forecast favors neither extreme of precipitation, and the Drought Outlook is based on a combination of (a) the surplus moisture expected through the end of December, (b) increased chances for a wet January from northeastern Texas eastward, and (b) climatology. JFM typically brings about 25 percent of annual precipitation to northeast Texas and Louisiana, and with surplus January precipitation favored, improvement is forecast there. To the west, JFM is a drier time of year, and both the January and JFM forecasts are non-committal, so persistence is expected there.

Forecast confidence is moderate for central and southern Texas, and low farther to the north in the Southern Region.

Moderate to severe drought covers southern Colorado and a broad adjacent swath centered near the Four Corners Region. The JFM outlook favors enhanced precipitation on the northern fringe of this drought area, but leans neither wet nor dry elsewhere. During the prior few weeks, above-normal precipitation is heavily favored for the last half of December throughout the drought region. Persistence is forecast from south-central Colorado eastward, where JFM is a drier time of year and normals are low, while improvements can be expected farther west.

In other parts of the West Region, patches of drought extend from western Oregon and Washington eastward through Idaho. With surplus precipitation expected on most time scales from late December through the end of March, drought removal is anticipated across Idaho. Farther west, seasonably heavy precipitation is expected into late December from the Cascades westward. JFM is a wet season there, bringing 35 to 40 percent of the annual total. Most tools favor subnormal precipitation across central and western Washington through January, but not for JFM as a whole. The forecast for persistence leans on the below-normal amounts favored for the first half of the period. It should be noted that episodic seasonal storminess affects western Washington and Oregon even during less-robust wet seasons, so some fluctuations in drought intensity may occur there.

In the West Region, forecast confidence is moderate to high in Idaho, and low across Washington and Oregon.

In the High Plains Region, drought is restricted to a swath covering southwestern Kansas, which is part of a larger drought area extending westward across southern Colorado and much of the Four Corners Region. The JFM outlook leans neither wet nor dry, but above-normal precipitation is heavily favored for the last half of December; however, this is a relatively dry time of year for southwestern Kansas. Typically, less than 10 percent of annual precipitation falls during JFM, and December usually brings only about three percent. Based on the low normals, above-normal December precipitation should not be sufficient to keep drought from persisting, though it lowers confidence.

Forecast confidence is moderate to low for the High Plains Region.

Removal of the remaining drought in the Alaska Panhandle is consistent with their generally wet climatology, and heavy precipitation is anticipated through the end of December. Although long-term drought impacts, such as hydro power, will continue in parts of the Alaska Panhandle, drought should finally be removed from southeast Alaska by the end of March.

Forecast confidence is moderate for Alaska.

Drought improvement continues across Hawaii. Based on a wetter climatology during the winter along with several tools pointing toward near- or above-normal JFM precipitation, drought is expected to ease or be removed by the end of March.

Forecast confidence is high for Hawaii.

Moderate drought has developed in eastern Puerto Rico, and with JFM being a drier time of year, conditions are not expected to abate by the end of March.

Forecast confidence is low for Puerto Rico.

Floods

Floods remain a concern but only in a limited area.

Last Week	Current Week

Let’s see if this animation works. It shows the pattern for August and September.

Wildfires

Current Wildfire Risk. This is a new model that updates daily by NOAA (but not automatically in this article) to show the short-term risk.

Click here to update. Red is high risk, blue is low risk. This graphic updates daily but you have to click on the link provided to get the updates More information can be found here.

This explains the model a bit.

Looking out another month.

Crop Progress

We are not receiving weekly reports at this point. They may be available but mostly we expect to receive and report on monthly reports during the winter months.

International (sorry for the small type). I could have broken this into multiple pieces but I was not sure how best to do that so you can enlarge it on your screen if needed to read it.

This is more recent information and easier to read

A map helps and is not always available but fortunately, it was available this week.

Major Sources of Information

In the box are shown the major resources we use. We will not be using them all each week but the reader is welcome to refer to these resources.

Background Information

The sequence of drought occurrence and impacts for commonly accepted drought types. All droughts originate from a deficiency of precipitation or meteorological drought but other types of drought and impacts cascade from this deficiency. (Source: NDMC)

Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln